Mair Snaw
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Posts posted by Mair Snaw
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we are all forgetting one thing here folks, its the gfs so it must be wrong as it has been all winter, during Jan and Feb most members on here myself included spent two months tossing the gfs in the bin and trusting the ecm totally...... what a fickle bunch we are...
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That's certainly been the UKMO view for the past 2-3 days (i.e., looking ahead into the 6-15d period). They've consistently talked of a low threat of a widespread snow event potentially taking-shape "...somewhere across the UK" where this boundary eventually sits (and of course dependant on various other criteria), but stress 'low threat' currently. I doubt anything in the present set of ensembles will alter their broad view for now.
Thanks for the update Ian, sounds like a forecasting nightmare....
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ECM 120 hard to judge where it will go, but it looks to me that trough to the north should drop right over the UK? (although second guessing a model run is often futile)
Yep it will probably go east and then down toward Greece....... they always get our snow...
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Plenty of interest for those looking for one last shot at snow for the winter season, details are changing every run, but the overall pattern has potential.
However GEFS has backed away from the colder pattern on the last few runs,
Has the ensemble suite picked up on the new trend or will we see a backtrack. ECM 12z will be very interesting, and after seeing Snowkings post from earlier with those Birmingham 2m temps from ECM we will just have to see which model has the better handle on things. Although the UK ridge GFS wants to keep in place looks a little shaky to be honest.
Taking UKMO and GEM at 144, the GFS looks to have the UK ridge a little to strong, and this is what is preventing those ensembles from going cold.
UKMO144
GEM 144
GFS 144
Some good charts there Chris. i would take the gem one as the best of the lot, im sure the next few days of runs will tempt us with some stunning stuff in FI but im sure this is far from settled yet.
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Didn't you know? The charts control the weather!
(or so some people seem to believe at times
)No i didntknow that, i thought it was the express that controls the weather....the headline today says " COLDEST WINTER FREEZE OF YEAR" so from that we can decide that december 2013 will be mild!!!!!!!
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Just imagine if the black bit hit our tiny island one day. We can but dream. Cold March heading our way maybe.
Yeah this place would go into overload, i guess one day it will happen but within our life time?? i get the feeling that this march is gonna be a bit different from last march with its warm sunny days.....
I dont think winter has finished with us just yet.. maybe time for one last blast.
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GFS seems to be slowly trending away from the Northerly for something a little delayed and more Easterly based, so more drab, grey, essentially dry cold weather no doubt.
This would be acceptable though.
OH IF ONLY WE COULD MAKE THE WEATHER DO WHAT THE CHARTS SHOW!!!!
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Been snowing like saw dust since late morning here, but in the last hour its just started to get that little bit heavier so im no longer straining my eyes to see it....
Got the feeling some people will get something of note at some stage this weekend..
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Yes charts from wetterzentral automatically update if you want then to stay you need to post them from either Netweather or meteociel
Was this the chart you posted before it auto updated?
This looks like the one that i posted it was around that time and looked a lot better than the one thats showing this morning.. maybe by the pub run tonight that post will look awesome again
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No, since you linked to a chart on WZ it will have updated to the latest run automatically. If you want the chart to stay the same then you'll need to save it and upload it
Right oh with you, so when i posted chart it was from 18z and showed cold northerly then when 00z updated it changed the chart?? thanks just found it odd that the was from the future if you look at time of post.
So to put the record straight the chart at the time of posting showed extreme cold northerly!! sorry Paul 1978 wasnt meaning to be rude to you.... just look as if somebody had modified post before you quoted it.
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Seems to have shown the 0Z which ended in true gfs style with a SWesterly, rather than the pub which he referred to which didn't.
Not possible if you look at the time of the post it was 23:20 so unless i have magic powers to go into the future and post a chart that has not even come out yet i strongly suggest that somebody has modified the post before quoting it. mods please sort this out....... LOOK AT THE TIME OF THE POST THEN THE CHART WITHIN THE POST TOTALLY IMPOSSIBLE....
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Not remoteley excited as we,ve been stung too many times with charts like this, when has anything at this range ever actually become reality.
December/jan 09/10 november/december 2010 all ticked down very nicely from way out in la la land if memory serves me right..
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Yes, we want to see this showing inside 144 before we start to get really interested! I see only 270 users on here at the moment; I would wager that may increase over the next few nights if the current trends continue.
I think the record would be in danger if tonight's 18z charts in fi come into reliable....
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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn3481.png
And it keeps going and going with no let up insight....... after a few weeks off the booze the pub run has been in the bar with Gazza!!
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Yep, feet solidly on Terra Firma - however this has been showing it's hand for a few days now. Also, the start of the northerly comes around 204 hours so not in deep la la land!
Slightly earlier than that, if you look at the t180 chart you can see the greenie high building that opens the door for our northerly to come...if we continue to see this over the next few days then it will almost be into reliable, until then i will not get to excited, well in secret i will....
As Cloud 10 points out it really does depend on what happens with the high.
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isnt the gfs the best at predicting notherlys??
My god i hope so ( shame its a crap model and all output should be in the bin) joke!!!!!!!
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http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn2401.png
B E A UTIFUL CHART. If you like that kind of weather of course.... now if we could just get some of these charts out of la la land and in to say t96 then this place would go into melt down.....
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http://modeles.meteo...gfsnh-0-180.png
looking for the shift of our high to greenland and only just outside of the reliable time frame
. the rest of this run could get very interesting. then again it may go the way of the pear.... -
latest fax charts look interesting.
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Just a quick post to inform that we have been seeing a few snow grains blowing in the wind here in the peak district for the past few hours. strange as the bbc were showing light snow all week here today until it changed this morning to mainly cloudy and no sign of snow.....not expecting to see very much here in the next few days but i do hope that some in the south get to see some fun for a change. having lived in Essex as a child i grew up knowing mainly the warm winters of the late 80's and 90's so i guess the south is due some . good luck to all the lamp post watchers this weekend, i for one will be keeping my eyes peeled
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Can't believe know ones commented on the 06z , the trough still needs to be 400 miles further east for straight northerly , but still a very cold run , with low thickness levels , and cold uppers , with low pressure on or near the uk spells a very wintery opening to march.
With heights really growing to the northwest been a very consistent theme now by the models
Yes stil a west based -NAO but beginning to look like a very wintery outlook indeed.
I'm sure changes will happen between now and 7 days but its really beginning to gain support of a northerly outbreak as we head into march .
Some very interesting charts there, And a few tweaks in our favour and it could be a very interesting start to march... a few ups and downs to come over the next week or so i feel. i think the 12z's will be interesting today.
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I am always at a loss to understand the bickering that goes on either at the first sign of winter, often in September, and towards the end of Meteorological winter, when others start to see hopes of spring?
Why?
It is a weather forum and this would stop if EVERYONE gave their view of the charts from a WEATHER angle, be it showing cold or warm.
In my view, no doubt to be disputed, the worst offenders are the cold lovers but the mild folk also must take some blame.
Surely it easy enough to be pleasant to one another.
No matter how much you want cold it must be blindingly obvious that severe and prolonged cold will NOT occur now, short sharp blasts will. Equally as the days lengthen so milder even warmer weather will become the more dominant weather type.
Is it possible for some balanced unbiased views on the models to be put in this thread folks or am I asking too much?
It is arguments such as are starting to appear which cause me to repeatedly, although I can never keep my promise, to stop posting in here and just stay in the more in depth thread.
Come on folks it is only the weather after all?
Looking at the 500mb anomaly charts over the pst few days and they are quite interesting. Not the needed total consistency model to model nor indeed with GFS especially even day to day agreement on what the upper air pattern may be 6-15 days on. However it does look from the last few days that any 'real' spring like weather is not likely in that time scale. How cold is not clear either.
Totally agree John, just rather annoying when a model run is coming out and somebody post 'winter is ended next week' no charts to support the post etc. im a lover of cold and snow in winter,showery springs, warm dry summers and wet stormy autumn. at this time the charts are showing cold then less cold and a return to cold, and nothing that looks to spring like so the post yesterday was rather annoying. as would be a post of winters here if no charts showed anything like it.
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if the models cant agree on whats happening over the next weekend, why is it not ok for someone to suggest that winters over (which it MIGHT be, although theres no real evidence for this), but ok for snowlovers to ramp up the meagre potential that something might happen regards snow in fi?... just the other day there was some great early springlike charts, i dare say that the pendulum could swing back in favour of milder.
theres no agreement from the anomoly charts, the gfs anomoly contradicts the op run in fi, by holding on to a large northern block stretching from canada to scandinavia. no northerly there. the ecm anomoly does suggest a polar maritime airflow in over a weeks time, but thats certainly subject to change..... EITHER WAY.
my last post at 23:09 last night if had seen it said similar. i just dont see the point in one liners without charts to back them up. if a chart shows poss spring then by all means but a one liner that spring is coming when no charts show it is not what this thread is for.
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he does not need charts as the output beyond 96 hrs is probably fi,maybe its just an opinion?
Maybe but i thought this was the model discussion thread, not the one liner without a chart thread, if t96 is fi then how can anyone say winters ended next week and same as deep cold and snow, the model output is showing cold in reliable and then in fi a slight less cold with chance of more cold later. and by tomorrow it could well be showing the opposite so then a winters over post would be fine if a chart to back it up is posted along with the post.
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Model Output Discussion - 2nd March Onward
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
if its cold your after then this is a chart for you... if cold is not your thing do not look at it..