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AGAL

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Posts posted by AGAL

    Hunt For Cold: Model Discussion - Heading Into Christmas

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, TomSE12 said:

    Hope Mods don't mind me posting this in here. I remember reading a post by Stuart Rampling (Glacier Point), in the Strat, Thread a few weeks ago. Stuart mentioned Dec.1984/Jan.1985, in his post, not sure if he mentioned it regarding a possible analogue Winter. But as we head towards 2019, the current output, reminds me very much of Xmas 1984. I was about to move back down to S.E.London from Lincolnshire. 

                      XMAS DAY 1984

    archives-1984-12-25-0-0.png

    Quite an active Jet Stream away to our N.W., with a ridge from a mid-latitude high appearing, in the far west.

                     27th DEC.1984

    archives-1984-12-27-12-0.png

    This was the day of my move, back south. As you can see above, the Atlantic is starting to hit a brick wall. In Lincoln the day was characterised by freezing fog and thick frost. These conditions continued for much of the day and there was thick freezing fog by the time I got back to London, in the early evening.

                     29th DEC.1984

    archives-1984-12-29-12-0.png

    By this time, positive heights started to transfer N.E. towards Scandinavia.

    archives-1985-1-5-0-0.png

    Which led to the above, just over a week later. Around 3 inches of snow at my new address, in S,E,London.

    My point being that Model output may not be very appealing at the moment but should a SSW come to fruition as forecast, Model output will likely change very suddenly.

    Apologies to Mods if this post has been too OT but just wanted to share this experience with members. No need for some of the despondency in here, at times. Patience is certainly the "watchword", at the moment!!

    Regards,

    Tom.  :hi:

     

     

    Mods could you just allow this one indulgence, I rarely post as I tend to meander and get suspended, but I have to reply to Tom as nostalgia is not what it used to be. Okay that said: Tom I was born of Camberwell Grove and played at the age of ten in the snow  in Camberwell Grove itself  in the great winter of 62/63 . Someones name on this forum sums up that winter perfectly. 'Froze were the days'.  Sorry mods , but it is the season of good will.

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    As GFS has started to hint the Atlantic polar high is sinking southwards It occurred to me that as high pressure anti cyclones are denser air masses  that the planet want to draw them towards the equator due to the spin of the planet  and centrifugal force outside of that what other anchoring forces are there that would make it want to sit at the pole besides SSW. Just a thought

    Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, JOPRO said:

    Can anyone explain why the UKMO is pants when it is out on its own showing a cold synopsis, but is the slayer of cold spells when it is on its own showing mild synopsis in the 96-120hr range. A genuine question not a toy throw ,would be interested to hear some on the more seasoned posters thoughts on this?

    Because mild is the default option in this coun

     

    16 hours ago, nick sussex said:

    Thankyou for that pearl of wisdom! I sort of worked that out after 12 years in here.

     

    4 minutes ago, karyo said:

    Exactly! Loosing the second northerly is a huge loss!

    The models can show a screaming easterly at 300 hours but a million things can go wrong by then!

    Only the GEM is now showing the second northerly but of course that's not a model we can trust.

    As proved by the 12z GFS

    Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Luke Attwood said:

    Well I do realise what your saying, because we are mostly getting Atlantic driven weather.but surely sooner or later we are due a big freeze, as the last one was about 6 years! Come on 12z repeat what the 6z threw at us

    Yes of course that's possible and we all really hope its the case, but many years of disappointment leads one to be cautious . These set ups are so rare nowadays 

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by AGAL
    tidied

    24 minutes ago, Luke Attwood said:

    People are saying,that the 12z can't match the 6z for cold prolonged cold,I really don't agree why can't it be as good. The trend is deffinatley there for our weather to be dominated from the east!

    It all depends if the models can guess reality, they usually do closer to the event which isn't good for us as reality for the British Isles is more often than not wet and windy

    Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    25 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

    Not much below average for early Jan.

    I'm sorry guys but I just don't buy into this cold spell. I mean for ordinary joe public it will be a couple of cold frosty mornings gradually getting milder as next week goes on. After that is anyone's guess and yes we have a lotto ticket at least this year. BUT eventhough the jackpot is huge the odds are stacked against

    I think we are so starved of serious cold nowadays that many jump ( I used to)  onto the models  second guessing very slim  chance cold windows of opportunity reality and can get carried away living a cyber  severe spell that hasn't actually happened. Even tonight I kept popping out of the house to check if the frost was still there. So yes we can all talk up a phoney cold war even though it hasn't actually happened. By the way "lotto winning ticket" pretty much sums it up.

    Freezing bitter cold spell with snow............It Could Be  You. Yeah, right

    Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Tamara said:

    I hope no-one minds me saying so as an ordinary member, but a theme I have been putting forward for some time now (circa 4 weeks) and gets construed at times as "glass half empty":)

    As stated and reasoned last night, and several times previously, downstream amplification is not assured in terms of being sustained if there is not the latent supply in the atmospheric circulation to ensure it so.

    My own eyes continue to be on the GSDM (tropical and extra tropical budgets) and how they are best interpreted with the troposphere/stratosphere relationship - and it is from there that I attempt appraisal of the NWP

     

    So what is your forecast for the next 10 days?

    • Like 5

    Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 hours ago, fergieweather said:

    PS What is worth noting re UKMO is that the GM isn't modified at Ops Centre beyond T+132. That's considered a reasonable cut-off point for fair medium range steer, in terms of tweaking additional fields such as frontal positions/shortwave elements & associated upper forcing/ppn/cloud cover/ etc.

    So what does that mean in terms of weather re: cold or warm

    Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    The biggest concern of mine is that the 12z's downgraded and although the EC46 sounds great, it was derived from 0z starting conditions, which pumped out a stonking ECM, perhaps the 12z's is the start of the usual downgrades.

    How can a model detecting reality that doesn't suit our wishes, be a down grade ? We can program the models to churn out stupendous cold charts,

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    49 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    To use a roulette analogy we're down to our last few quid, we've gambled nearly all the Christmas money and are now left with piling what we have left on one number!

    Ordinarily at this point I would be throwing the towel in however theres just enough uncertainty both upstream and the exact placement of high pressure to the east to warrant keeping the towel until tonight.

    The movement of the PV to the north is effected by what happens over in the USA, that's not to say its going to suddenly find some festive spirit and clear off! However its the modelling of the pattern over in the eastern USA which could either help or hinder our chances of getting some energy going se towards Iberia. Currently there are differences with the handling and amplitude of shortwave energy reaching the east coast, these have a knock on effect into the Atlantic.

    I think current odds do favour a battle and then the PV winning out but don't discount yet that we might see more energy heading se.

    Ah but what currency are we dealing in Human Emotions I would suggest. If so then we are all in serious debt:)

    • Like 3
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