AGAL

Mods could you just allow this one indulgence, I rarely post as I tend to meander and get suspended, but I have to reply to Tom as nostalgia is not what it used to be. Okay that said: Tom I was born of Camberwell Grove and played at the age of ten in the snow in Camberwell Grove itself in the great winter of 62/63 . Someones name on this forum sums up that winter perfectly. 'Froze were the days'. Sorry mods , but it is the season of good will.

As GFS has started to hint the Atlantic polar high is sinking southwards It occurred to me that as high pressure anti cyclones are denser air masses that the planet want to draw them towards the equator due to the spin of the planet and centrifugal force outside of that what other anchoring forces are there that would make it want to sit at the pole besides SSW. Just a thought

In my humble opinion ...No

Because mild is the default option in this coun As proved by the 12z GFS

Especially with only one eye

Sorry but so many seem to think the models are responsible and tend to personalise the outputs for not 'playing ball' My apologies

Maybe its right and that Azores low will be there

Yes of course that's possible and we all really hope its the case, but many years of disappointment leads one to be cautious . These set ups are so rare nowadays

It all depends if the models can guess reality, they usually do closer to the event which isn't good for us as reality for the British Isles is more often than not wet and windy

Maybe the 12z should carry a health warning

Yes the 6z was astonishing but I prefer hindsight fact to fiction -we'll all obviously see.

Is the control more reliable and where would on find it ? (is it alright to ask questions -mods)

The GFS doesn't exactly scream rush down to B&Q and break out the rock salts

Pardon my ignorance but where can you finds the GEFs ?

Is it me? Just looking through the 6z GFS and it doesn't seem to justify much confidence in a several day+ cold spell. I'll bank the frost in London tonight, the rest is hope TBH.

Sorry mods briefly OT: Banbury are you Marcus from TWO

I think we are so starved of serious cold nowadays that many jump ( I used to) onto the models second guessing very slim chance cold windows of opportunity reality and can get carried away living a cyber severe spell that hasn't actually happened. Even tonight I kept popping out of the house to check if the frost was still there. So yes we can all talk up a phoney cold war even though it hasn't actually happened. By the way "lotto winning ticket" pretty much sums it up. Freezing bitter cold spell with snow............It Could Be You. Yeah, right

So what is your forecast for the next 10 days?

So what does that mean in terms of weather re: cold or warm

Only in our eyes are they downgrades. To the models they are just handles on reality

How can a model detecting reality that doesn't suit our wishes, be a down grade ? We can program the models to churn out stupendous cold charts,

Excellent stuff. If it all comes off you'll be hailed director of the year or even decade

I suppose you can't blame some for not realising that a long, long time ago the outer reaches of the GFS was named 'Fantasy Island' and not a technical term like F1; unless off course Lewis Hamilton is forecasting now

Ah but what currency are we dealing in Human Emotions I would suggest. If so then we are all in serious debt

Yeah that my experience as well, much prefer weather models.