AGAL

Off Topic Just a thought Mods: If there ever was a forum for the worst chocholate bars-surely many people would have to be off topic to post in the first place? Okay I'll go peacfully.

Sorry to be picky but the Ecm and Ukmo don't continue to give us what we want, they continue to analyse the data and then second guess reality better than GFS at the moment. Sorry again but it makes it sound like the models are responsible for the weather we get. Again I apologise and don't mean to offend.

What are the odds On going into McDonalds and when asked what would you like on your burger you replying a fiver each way. What are the odds on snow in London tomorrow? I know this , this afternoon temperatures reached a balmy 3c. I reckon light snow and ligh rain by Saturday at most.

Yellow warnings on the met site mean nothing, they seemed to have had almost the whole country on an orange alert since the weekend with the only colour Red left to go, being a National Emergency. So I wouldn't read too much into the gravity of any situation with UKMO as they are stark raving H&S mad nowadays

.UKMO are not showing that, for the Bromley area of Kent on their website http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/?tab=5day Showing snow all the way from Friday to Saturday-don't trust any of it though until the snow is on the grond for more than half an hour. TBH sickened by all the UKMO stupid warnings and rubbish in the media. half hour of snow in London for all the fanfare.. Wrong thread .

Yes I've found his posts and January is pretty accurate so far with a storm over the next couple days -well snow ? We'll see but very good so far. Update: Actually I was looking at the wrong year . Sorry mods but it is model related , Can someone point me to the latest forecast?

Thanks ...erm Keith.

Sorry but not wanting to plough through hundreds of posts , who is RJS? Not that boy band -surely? Update : Don't worry found it now.

Well I haven't read all the latest post but I can guess what they are about........lack of snow. UKMO for my part of the world now only show sleet for tomorrow http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/ (put in Bromley if page doesn't show) yet they have the whole country plastered in a ridiculous bright orange ....for sleet and a day time temp of 3c are these people NUTS? So after all the model shennanigans and the final consensus we get this ..a big fat useless damp squib. Really pi%%%ed of now al those promises of snowmaggedon and crap for the Country and particularly the SE and all I get is a wet snowflake !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Lets just hope its a changing situation and precipitation potential can change , but even so is it cold enough? You've got the silly tabloids screaming white out You have Joe B's quoting the Daily Express WTF (he doesn't do himself any favours with that nonsense) Peir Corbyn has just got his Solar Flares back from the dry cleaners and is telling us it's going to be a January too remember and UKMO turning the country into a Bob Monkhouse fake bloody tan. For what, a wet Effingham snowflake ARGHHHHHHHHHHH. It's be a January to remember all right, to remember not to listen to this shower of experts vere again!!!!!! By the way mods how stupid is it that when you type in the name of one of the worlds best known meteorologists you get laminate flooring . Childish and ridiculous software .

Yes I agree. I try to savour the model discussion and because I'm a coward; by slowly catching up with the comments- but blimey the do shift around and contradict. Mind you overall its great fun. Even as I type I'm an hour behind real time as I slowly watch the GFS unfold via the good people here. So at this moment there may be seveal hundred bitterly down individulas or estatically exuberent masses, by the time I catch up.

I didn't realise Scotland was metric and England imperial-no wonder Miles Davis did'nt go metric. However models related : I'm still not too sure how SE London, Kent and Surrey are going to fare? Looks stanley blade edge x bad luck for Monday

God I hate 18z's like this I'm now fearful to go to sleep and log on in the light of dawn! The morning after the night before promises made and all that. Oh please Lord just let us have consistency over the next week -no more St Paul on the road to Damascus Stunts-I beseech you. Just all the bloody models agreeing for once on a sustained cold spell that reality will come to pass. Dear Lord before we go to sleep pray keep these latest synoptics to keep. Like most I follow this stuff religiously

I can only hope you are right about the GFS having its foibals but we went through those in December and it's foibals were not to be denied. As for SSW: Well its obvious I'm a lay person who maybe was sceptical of the SSW event but if it is a masive a deal as being purported then surely the models can't easily account for this extra dimension, blimey they struggle anyway trying grasp the three dimensional troposphere let alone this stratosphere putting its oar in. Just my humble view and hope

That may be so Exeter not using GFS but it was that model that started to rapidly disolve the December cold spell -so it got that spot-on. Sorry to seem a tad contentious but ignoring GFS because UKMO doesn't use it and no doubt driven by the desire of nearly all of us to see something a little bit special in cold weather terms, is colouring our logic possibly. I feel GFS done it again with my only hope being the huge SSW currently inplay throwing a spanner into the computers logarithms meaning they*all* are throwing out wild speculative options ?

It's like that Gary Lineker quote. Weather forecasting is about thousands of meteoroligist and several super computers trying to predict the weather, but in the end the atlantic wins - ya.

Well I said after the December fiasco we should March on the edifices that hold these computers and with flame and pitchfork raise the devils work to the ground or something like that. I think someone recently likened the synoptic patterns for the Nortern hemisphere to like tossing a box of matches (?) where generally the box will always land on the side with the largest surface area (Atlantic dominated) but now and again the matchbox will land on the smallest area of it's surface the ends. Anyhow using that analogy I think we can safely say th\at by this time tomorrow some of the models will have met their match

Hmmm this is getting very silly when you say the "GFS has blown it" as if the model has let itelf and everyone else down. This is very much like December when we were all very convinced util the GFS spotted something and did a u turn and eventually the other models had to change, The only critiscism I would have is how can it be very adamant and then change so. Hoever if it is right theh it has shown again it a superior model at guessing what the weather reality will be. As I've said I just get annoyed when it and other models all agree at one point and then go back to the default Atlantic drivers. The only ray of hope or crumb of comfort is that the SWW event is huge and if this has any bearing at all maybe the GFS has been confused. However they are only models fed ever changing data and trying to predict the closest they can get to reality in the terms of weather. Have to say I'm not too upset this time, you kind of expect it. It like having a partner who keeps telling you how much they love you but they always seem to be out overnight staying with friends, In the end hopefully one gets the message-don't believe a bloody word

And the post immediatly before says "Well its so painful waiting for these runs, GEM currently trickling out, another good run, much better than GFS anyway, huge 6-7pm tonight, more servers may be needed Paul " So two totally opposed interpretations of the GEM within minutes.. Okay Rybris I get it goodbye

This SSW malarkey: Well it would seem that there is definitley some strong correalation between this and hemispheric blocking. Now is this an accepted fact by meteorological organisations and if so is it factored into the modelling process once taking place, or is it still the case that the models are reacting to atmospheric changes that are as a result of SSW? So basically are the models proactively instructed by the SSW data or are they merely responding and always trying to catch up to the data? Sorry to be OT ................not.

Slighty OT "These guys are after all paid to forecast the weather and hence I hope far better placed to read the charts then most here." Well that's never stopped UKMO in the past making ludicrous BBQ summer forecasts and only last march 23rd to be precise at the end of a verry dry winter UKMO made a three month forsecast for April, May and June saying all three months would be drier than average and all know what happened next. UKMO has a track record of this so I wouldn't believe too much in their LRF. Depends on the latest party line in their case. Sorry Mods haul me off if you need too but it had to be said.

I think you missed my point. That being the thing hasn't even happened yet. As for the last several weeks anything that breaks the westerlies and brings drier mild conditions or dry and very cold conditions are both equally welcome. the main issue is that there is a pattern change starting to show.

Hey: It might be an outlier, but that dip sure beats the garlic dip I'll consume on boxing day

Merry Christmas Cal and everyone: Yes we "have been here before" with the massive high bringing us if it materialises, very cold easterly air. But the models and the weather they've been trying to predict has been painfull to look at to say the least. I don't care if its in FI as I'm desperate to see a cold spell. To be honest the British Island maritime weather is like winning the lottery foor us coldie fans when it happens. You've got to be in it to win it. Come on lets check our 12z GFS and see if we can at least get three numbers .

Blimey the GFS is so wet and mild we should rename the thread 'The Hunt for Mold'. What lousy charts. As usual you can rely on the GFS nearly all of the time with SW Atlantic weather but never from the other direction. I'm afraid it's a miserable wet mild outlook for sometime. The only consolation is we didn't get that ghastly sw on the edge of that southerly high that was programmed last week on several occassions, which ilicited that stupid term 'scorchio'. No ,no one will be on the porchio but the lack of real cold will be torchio..

Not sure about "absorbing" ? More like bleedin' exhausting.