AGAL

ECMWF 12z out to192 brings it all back down to earth........for now.

blow torch They've been burned far too many times-not ice burns either, I think it's a psychological safety strategy. Let's face it we've all been entranced but realistic about the high gradually winning just before Christmas day but the atlantic alway wins/won. So this is a big, big change by the GFS and out of character based on many day days of recent observations. How many only said this morning they'd had enough model watching. It remains to be seen if it's a wonderful new signal the GFS has picked up on, but I'm desperate not to let myself get too carried away, however its a long way from all that hair dryer , BBQ Christma day drivel I kept reading over the last several days.. For now: Stand by your barometers. Expect the worst and you won't be disappointed.

You've actually got your central heating on!!!!!!! Nah tough weatther nuts sleep with the CH off , the bedroom windows wide open and under a half a tog duvet.

It might be inconsistent in it's approach but the mild ending is consitency itself.

And a merry christmas to you comrade. Oh how uncle Joe used to love this time of year dressing up as father winter.

By 204 the Atlantic is once again invincible. Mind you snow at Christmas, even Greg Lake whinged about the lack of it in the cooler seventies, so we shouldn't be to surprised.Best to put the whole thing out of your minds and enjoy Christmas and think about it Boxing day.

DO NOT TRUST THE GFS AT THAT RANGE. Like the mythical sirens it will lure us all onto the rocks of despair. Maybe one shouldn't trust one's own subjective judgement: but it seems to me that the GFS being the model to extend the furthest, when picking up a SW theme at the extent of its range; that it's prediction picked up over two weeks earlier always seems to come to pass. Yet when picking up a northerly or easterly the so-called trend the model seems to have spotted,it always turns out to be false. So therefore the northerly shown for boxing day now tlike left over Christmas dinner gets rehased for the New Year. Now it may come to pass but it won't be due to GFS model predictions, if it does happen then the GFS just got lucky. Actually maybe the GFS system could be sold to Las Vegas.

No you are right that's all there is......................................at the moment. I think after the horror show the GFS sespecially put on the last several days that most of us are like a man dying of thirst and suddenly we see. or think we see an oasis. But that cast iron looking SW balmy wind that were on for the Christmas period have now been replaced by SW balmy winds . Nah seriously those cold euorpean temps are more at our doorstep this time. All of this is of course, is in the deniable time frame.

Now whats happening at 144 another breakaway low? http://www.wetterzen...s/Rtavn1441.png Med bound. Doubt it. Sod the models they're just playing with our afflictions Further dissapointment.

Well what looked promising just raises the temps a few degrees earlier.

and then nudging it northwards again.

And drags the 528 line further south http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rtavn1203.png

Nah that low uses blockbusters

They (the models ) do this until right at the last moment. A bit like a bullfighter waving the red cape and then yanking it away at the last moment. Yes we are that dozy bull. Mind you FI looks tasty snort........

Don't want to be rude but of course many of us are frankly pi&*ed off. The models up until last Friday were showing a massive lottery win , then they decided the numbers were wrong. The thought of another wet mild Christmas fills me with gloom. Its perfectly understanable that some of us are down we had it all to look forward to. You'll see how exciting the nuances of rain and wind are when you see the current 602 user level seen below drop like a stone. It is bad and although you might mean well, telling me it isn't bad is even more irritating. Sorry mods but I had to say it . So let me wallow in self pity. Move me to the suicide thread as I'm busy slashing my wrist at the moment and please don't call the samaritans or an ambulance.

Absolutely right on the money, nope won't get fooled again................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... wouldn't happen to have any...erm...further links to that -would you

Yes I agree. A severe cold spell is something that the majority on weather forums want to see and winter -especially a cold one which is the engine of the forums. To be fair we've all been here before over the years now, and we all try and hold our fire or make comments like"yes I know it's in FI" and such but this one was exceptionall in that nearly everyone was taken in no matter how hard they tried to resist. Truth is model watching-and it's been said by others far wiser than me , is really pointless beyond five days, yet no doubt I will get suckered in again as many of us will; because we want to see a mantle of white and gritters scraping in the snow. Can I just thank the mods for creating this thread as I'm usuallty deleted and barred by now.Great way to let of steam.

Yes we all know that . But the super computers seemed to have forgotten for several days only to remember again some time yesterday.

Well I wouldn't be too dissapointed if UKMO's computer in Exeter suffered flood damage. It surely has it coming. One down three to go.

What still gets me every year is this: Why are these massive model flips always and I mean always, biased to Mild? I still don't get how all of the models only saw something that was a fundamental huge change -at the last moment? It's like having a car go into reverse gear as it was approaching cruising speed-unbelievable. Do these computers secretly talk to each other and try to deliberately wind us up and let us go banging blindly into the skirting boards of disappointment as opposed to through the architraving of desire

Okay I take that as back to model watching again LOL

I get up bleary eyed and the first thing I do is check my barometer the TWO model forum not because I'm having a pop at TWO but I know it well and you you can immediatly see the amount of people using the forum and it was something like sixty compared to very constant high figures over the last few day. Hey Ho. There is without doubt the same users here as over on TWO and we are all very dissapointed and dare say humiliated a tad as many of us would like to pride ourselves that we know more than the average person and therefore would have let people around us know whether personal or work related. that a very unusual cold spell was on its way There is also a little bit of turning on each other as we were all happy as that proverbial sandboy just a day ago. We were all excited eagerly awaiting the easterly and what better build up to Christmas for all of us. There then follows a disaapointed falling out with personal criscism showing here and there but towards eachother not the models . However you can't blame machines and we shouldn't blame eachother. Saying that though there is a 'collective' blame and that is never learning that bthese models are useless. If we went back before the age of the internet we would have no such access and therefore ignorance was bliss. Yes iit's perfectly understandable that many -including me -feel bitterlly (unlike next week) let down but there is only one lesson to be drawn here -don't believe anymodel past several days as they are still useless pitched against the real world,

And that is 'nailed on'. Hmmm I never want to see that phrase again -not in the 'reliable time' anyway.

I won't say too much only that I've just had time to catch up with what seems to be the aftermath of the 12z GFS. I think it's perfectly undrestandable that people get so upset with the way the models show outrageous synotopics and alays default back as we approach the precipes, Although I hated that phrase coined I believe by the Labour Minisiter John Reed but as soon as we accept the models are 'Not Fit for Purpose' the better. You woulddn't buy a poduct that useless yet we and understandably let ourselfs get carried away and sucked in with copious uses of the terms 'nailed on and reliable time frame' . yet they are usless the lot of them , each model came on board giving it all that. and now to change so rapidly is beyond words and ony prooves they are useless. Me personally I organaise an angry mob with pitchforks and the like and smash the computers to smitthereens and never allow them to take the proverbial out of us never again. My big concern is this sort of thing could lead to Hate Crimes against other computers I can see the news headlines now. Lap top tortured in Slough. Rasberry Pi kicked to death up the Edgeware Road. Desk Top PC tarred and feathered in SE London, PC world raized to the ground.in Milton Keynes. You see once hate starts it's hard to stop and it would break my heart to see innocent Pocket Calculators having to suffer for the crimes of GFS and UKMO over priced and overartted piles of junk. Now where's that Who track Won't Get Fooled Again...yeah right. Mods move at will if you feel the need to stick it this elswhere.