DanDorsetUK
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Posts posted by DanDorsetUK
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Looking at how fast its filtering down personally i cant see anything but a quick response. High latitude blocking will be evident by next Sunday mark my words. All i can see is the probability of high pressure over the pole, cold rushing into Europe and America a long fetch eastily with new wave 1 showing this morning on top to see us through February.
All looking good in my book.
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Comments above regarding whether this current setup is anything to do with Global warming it's not! If this same set up happened 25 years ago it would be the same. All the cold is over the other side. If it was closer we would have tapped into colder air it's as simple as that.
People shouldn't be looking beyond 5 days right now especially so during what is a MAJOR SSW. There is more likelyhood of it being a QTR this time in fact were already seeing signs of this with such inconsistencies between runs. It like a plug being pulled from a bath. You'll notice small affects untill momentum builds then the greatest movement will be seen.
Looking at the latest its already showing -54 m/s at 1 hpa this morning! And stays reversed for a long time. Not only that but a new wave 1 showing up.
High pressure is likely to break out quickly towards the pole with high latitude blocking. The split looks likely sending cold into America and Europe with eastilies for a long time well into February.
The jet could indeed fire up but its likely to be low tracking which could actually provide bundles of snow for the South through February.
The cold will spread out into lower latitudes.
I'm 100% confident that's how it will pan out. You can expect to see a big shift appear very quickly on the models any time from today more likely in 48hrs.
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From my perspective looking at the SSW charts deep cold heading into America and into Europe. High pressure breaking out North and across the pole pushing the cold out in an east direction towards us. East winds setting up with the beast hitting this January.
The Jet stream may fire up but on a low tracking which could down the line benefit the South. I'm quite convinced were in for a very harsh January and well into Febuary as the winds look to stay reversed for some time.
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Just let the SSW do its magic and ride it out, pv-forecast on Twitter was saying there will be a huge effect in January from this. You only need to look at the charts he's posting to see how big this it. The downwelling will happen. Highs will break out.
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Is Marco trying to be cryptic in his tweet just then regarding the sea ice with a wink?
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La nina returns to weak status.
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6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
So after it’s happened and the models have the data they will settle down a bit? So Tuesday we should start to see some effects modelled ?
Yes from what I remember in 2018 that's what will happen. It will become very obvious in the models at least beginning to play with solutions. That's how I remember 2018 beginning.
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I'm sure if I remember right from 2018, i have no idea where I remember seeing it or reading it but from what i remember the models will not react to a SSW untill they see the downwelling. The downwelling hasn't happened yet from what I've just read on the latest update but it shouldn't be long.
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1 minute ago, Griff said:
Para sniffs out the SSW and possible down dwelling, wasn't what I expected to see so quickly?
Yes we're on we warm Atlantic side but look east...
Yes the signs are there we saw it on last nights GFS run. High pressure will break out from nowhere very quickly. I'm not taking anything after 5 days for granted at all.
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During a major SSW you could expect to see high pressure breaking out from nowhere. I see no SSW influence on tonight's run. Given downwelling looks fast and sooner than originally thought I would expect to see signs in the next couple of days on the models. Things will soon look complete different I'm 100% sure of that. Enjoy next weeks cold for me it's just the starter before the main course and then deserts after.
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Only just caught up with developments. I would suggest people dont stress about the models flipping at the moment. I would suggest people read the latest updates about the SSW before making any conclusions as to where this may or may not go. Also have a read of PV forecasts latest posts on twitter. I cant post charts on here as it's not model related. But just take every single model run with a bucket load of salt right now!
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2 hours ago, HellItsHot said:
Would i be right in thinking that the current set up 20 or 30 years ago would have given a lot of snow for a lot of the country?
Is climate change that immediate?
No this has absolutely no bearing on this situation. The cold is there its just pushed over the other side of the globe.
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I'm pretty sure we are seeing an SSW quick trop response here. Even I'm enjoying this one tonight
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So going by the latest runs tonight we have our best chances for falling snow next week. Keeping an eye on Tuesday to begin with. A possible convergence zone pretty close to Dorset.
Uppers look alot better and judging by snow in parts of Southampton this evening there is more likelyhood of snow next week.
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Given I don't normally take day 10 charts to seriously especially so at the moment with the impending SSW everything we are seeing needs to be taken with a very large pinch of Salt.
After reading through all the posts from PV-forecast on Twitter it's safe to say the Northern hemisphere is staring down the barrel of a very large event. They are calling this an extreme event.
Given the speed in which this is developing it should start to show very quickly in the models similar to 2018. They are stating there is much more heat than was being predicted. For anyone who's not looked through there Twitter posts it's well worth the read.
Obviously this does not mean we will get the extreme cold but given the longetivity of the event I quite rate our chances.
The signs in the models will become very obvious to see and very quickly when they do. This SSW points to extreme cold spilling into the lower latitudes. And for once I actually have a good feeling were in for quite a ride.
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1 hour ago, username home said:
Feel for those on here who've wasted 10s of hours studying pointless model output in attempts to find something that will never happen.
Especially those who sit up the entire night waiting for the 0z! If you actually rewind the posts to 10 days behind you'll see how delusional it constantly all really is compared to what actually happens at T0.
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Why is it people are taking these day 10 charts seriously again given Marco recent tweet? Surely there is no likelyhood of it looking this way in 10 days given there is a MAJOR SSW about to hit. To me its completely pointless looking past 5 days untill it really shows it head.?
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2 hours ago, AdrianHull said:
Day 10, Day 10, Day 10.....
Any chance of a day 10 thread mods?
Think that's exactly what's needed. 1 to 5 day model Discussion for more in detail accurate forecasts, and a 5 day to fi model Discussion for potential.
The storm we just had was a perfect example. Hardly any discussion of what would happen at ground level. Then all of a sudden we have a storm on our doorsteps with 80mph gusts along the south without realising or any real discussion about it.
It would stop this forum from becoming just the fi chasing model Discussion.
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1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:
No worries if anything it gets you excited at the fact were producing these charts before a ssw! Imagine that day 10 chart then as reverse zonality kicks in the vortex from russia starts heading our way!! Its entirely possible!
I'm pretty confident that's what will happen down the line. All seems to be slowly maneuvering to that scenario.
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2 hours ago, SteveB said:
Temp still rising, now at 4.2c
It's dark, surely it should be dropping?
Yes very odd this evening. Warm here near the coast too.
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Really shocked how warm it is out. 3oC here in Canford Cliffs. I'm sure it was meant to be colder than this
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Well after my morning walk down here around Canford Cliffs Poole, it actually feels quite mild out really. Its very rare for Southern areas to do well from a North or North Westerly. Obviously alot of warm are mixing about. Doesn't put much hope on tomorrow's chances. Maybe if winds swing more North maybe a better chance.
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Looking at the temp rise up to 3oC as that approached I'm writing off any chance tomorrow for my Coastal area. Hopefully everyone further North and inland does well! Fingers crossed!
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3 minutes ago, Dorset_mist said:
Yet with today’s occluded front is snowing heavily in Ringwood, and Raining in Shaftesbury with is at 709ft ASL...I don’t get it
It is all very odd I must say. Its rain here in Poole the temps shot up as the band approached so alot of mixing out going on. The Sea temps are warm this year too I believe.
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I'll just leave this here..