DanDorsetUK
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Posts posted by DanDorsetUK
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I'm actually quite surprised why the likes of Poole, Bournemouth, Swanage etc dont get Solent streamers setting up given they are in a perfect position from an eastily for those areas. Why doesn't the solent bring streamers?
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Some building precip in channel as the low comes in, be interesting if much develops from the south because of it. Certainly got a north push showing now. Plymouth could get the best so far and west of that area. Be interesting if anything else develops further east down the channel from it.
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Could get a nice dusting in Cornwall area shortly the low coming in is pushing things north.
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Nice to have the light dusting, but all the fantasy cold charts have now gone, just a steady warm up now. For me I cant wait for some spring warmth and sunshine, really struggled this winter with the gloomy days, I need some positivity back in life and nice days out walking with a nice beer in a pub garden after. Really hope we get some lovely hot weather this year so I can get out on the boat and get some much needed sun top ups followed by a massive electric storm.
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Some nice streamer potential showing for tomorrow morning onwards. We need the winds to shift eastily quick as possible. Hoping our best chances come tomorrow.
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10 minutes ago, mattyj said:
Hi is the BBC wrong for tomorrow has heavy snow symbols for a few hours I'm in ferndown Dorset thanks
Yes were likely to see something tomorrow morning anytime from 3am onwards. There is a Steamer expected to push north through the region as the winds turn more eastily. Should Give a dusting if it comes off.
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Met office still seem quite confident of significant snow events this month so I'll put my faith into them rather than the models at the moment. Gloasea is probably seeing things a little different.
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Just now, jtay said:
Wednesday's fax chart has a line of convergence across Central Southern areas, which should give anything forming more chance of making it further South and West.
Good chat that on the back of stronger winds too.
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Think this cold spell has been a real let down across the board really. I'm convinced my location will see snow tomorrow morning as a streamer swings north I expect to see a dusting at least!
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10 minutes ago, AWD said:
Surprised our Cornish folk haven't brought up the 06z high Res Arome model;
Something for you snow starved Cornish members to grasp straws at.
Not surprised to see this given wind direction and strength tomorrow you could get it coming in off the sea.
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5 minutes ago, offerman said:
You seem quite knowledgeable.
I have a question regarding the orange intensity over Milton Keynes.
how come this is not moving with the flow from east to west but the lighter stuff is , but the orange echoes seem to be hovering over the same spot. How is that possible when there are no hills or mountains to keep it fixed on those areas.
thanksJust looking at that now funnily enough, Possibly land height, the chiltern hills maybe causing it, just trying to bring up a few sat images.
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Look at the wind direction and strength for tomorrow! Every chance we could get more streamers off this!
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Humidity is much higher to the west of the flow that is going to fall quite quickly soon. Might help push it more south west.
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Ohhh errrrr look to the South east coast and look at direction of travel on the flow.
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Look at the precip intensity picking up. Possible back building there also.
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5 minutes ago, *Stormforce~beka* said:
LOL Good name for it! I can confirm nothing is happening over Winch right now. Anyone know what the triangle is about? Reminds me of a the bermuda triangle!! I'm scared!
Cloaked UFO
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2 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:
The life is being sucked out of the snow clouds moving in from the east by Salisbury Plain, can see it happening before my eyes.
Looks quite dark over the back though or is that your camera?
There is also alot more back building behind that too.
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Look how far that streamer is hitting north west cornwall. I think there is potential here for more to be in the game than were realising.
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Looking like a strong uptick in precip out to sea to the east too. Tonights fun and games maybe
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Winds just picked up quite considerably along the South now. I think that main band will grow to the east of it also. I'm pretty sure it will reach down here just unsure how intense it will be by the time it gets here. Could actually still pick up yet given its only just gone 1pm and sun strength involved.
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Intensity is actually increasing quite rapidly looks to be expanding to the east of the flow a fair bit.
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Looking at radar development's I'd say there are quite a few in with a shout. Intensity is most definitely increasing even south east of the main flow which will brings the likes of eastern and Southern Dorset and IOW in with more of a chance of at least seeing some more flakes than seen so far. Need closely watching as intensity was forecast to pick up even more this evening.
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That stream and increase in intensity more than likely based on sun strength. I can see that dropping more south into North Dorset maybe even further south. Needs keeping an eye on that!
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1 minute ago, CentralSouthernSnow said:
I’m logging off till next winter, that’s me done guys! So much potential but unfortunately poor show for us in the south/southwest. Unfortunately flurries don’t excite me! We could of had a snow event Friday as our last chance but Atlantic isn’t making it in. All the best till next winter
Think your jumping the gun a bit based on latest developments today tonight and tomorow. Winds are going to change and pick up with an expected streamer making it further inland than first thought. Winds will help push further into Dorset.
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South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward
in Regional
Posted
Think this has to go down as one of the biggest expectation fails ever this week in fact this whole winter so far since December!
Im not even finding it that cold out to be honest. Anything can happen though 5 days away! Heat, Cold, Storms, you name it! Patterns change so much in that short space of time anything after that needs to be kept at very low confidence with low expectations.
The moment i see 0z Runs showing something interesting roughly 5 days out i take more notice, as a web developer myself it is clear to see there is an algorithm being used on every model run.
A lesser impact algorithm for 0z to the greater risk on the 18z its clear to see its programmed that way. But you only really notice the algorithm after 5 days when it becomes FI.
The moment 0z looks good for cold is when to sit up and take more notice around the day 5 mark.
I might actually look more at the models this summer and see how it behaves, ive never really looked at 0z and compare 18z through summer months so it might be interesting to see how algorithms perform during Summer months.
Anyway 2 more weeks of Feb to go anything possible yet!