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DanDorsetUK

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    Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Alderc said:

    Big eastwards shift with some of the forecast, I’ve gone from the eastern end of the low risk to the western end of the moderate risk. I don’t like being on the western end lol 

    I recon we will be fine here. Looking at the amount of activity so early in the day already I think we're in for quite the show later! Even feels different out today! Alot of cool breeze about. 

    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward

    in Regional

    Posted

    What a great storm update for us in the South! Come on we have to get lucky this time!!!

     

    Throughout the day there is a risk of the odd elevated shower/thunderstorm passing close to the Isles of Scilly and tip of Cornwall, but the main focus begins late afternoon near the Channel Islands onwards. Profiles over NW France appear capped to surface-based convection, and would ideally require surface temperatures closer to the mid 30s Celsius. However, a combination of warm advection/isentropic upglide and forced ascent from divergence aloft as the upper low over Biscay approaches is expected to result in elevated thunderstorms developing, already present over the Bay of Biscay in the morning and these then migrating across the Brest peninsula to the Channel Islands around late afternoon/early evening. A slow migration northwards is then expected through the evening and night hours into southern England. As is often the case with elevated thunderstorms the exact extent of lightning activity is uncertain; however profiles exhibit potential for deep convection rooted from the 800-850mb layer with substantial cloud-layer shear and dry mid-levels to support some potentially fairly active thunderstorms. The greatest instability and steepest mid-level lapse rates will naturally be towards the eastern half of the English Channel closest to the main untouched Theta-W plume emanating from France. Nonetheless, elevated thunderstorms are likely over the English Channel, perhaps as far west as Devon/south Cornwall initially, but the focus for lightning through the night may become confined to areas further to the east with time as thunderstorms in the west weaken and merge into more generic areas of heavy, convective rainfall with fairly saturated profiles. In fact, it may be the case that very little activity occurs east of the Isle of Wight until the early hours, with the potential for an uptick in activity to develop over S / SE England during the early hours of Saturday.  Analysis of cross-section data suggests there may be two main features - the bulk of the thunderstorms along the cold front/occlusion, but scope for more isolated very high-based elevated storms perhaps earlier on a preceding pre-frontal trough. Cloud tops in the most potent storms could get close to 40,000ft, and despite the elevated nature it is possible a couple of storms over the English Channel and into Cen S / SE England may exhibit some transient supercellular characteristics which may pose the threat of some marginally-severe hail. The main hazard, however, will be heavy rain and flash flooding potential, alongside lightning. There will already be a brisk easterly wind through the English Channel due to the existing surface pressure gradient, however brief gusts 50-60mph may be possible near the most intense cells (even higher offshore).

    • Thanks 2

    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward

    in Regional

    Posted

    So a poor outlook according to model discussions, always the way when the kids break up for School! Shame.

    I was moored up at Studland Bay yesterday then launched a new Kayak from the boat.

    The sea was very warm over that side.

    But a big lesson learnt! Was very surprised how quick the tide depth came up while sat in that bay. The boat depth had 3 foot spare on the gauge. I was able to jump out the boat and touch the bottom easily then climb in the kayak.

    I went for a final ride for only 10 mins got back to the boat thinking the depth would be about the same, jumped out the Kayak flipping it then to my shock couldn't touch the bottom. Was really tough trying to swim pulling a 2 man flipped Kayak to the boat which was only 15 feet away. Don't think I've ever seen the tide level come up that quick there. Was clearly an undercurrent.

    I looked at the depth gauge after getting back on and it had risen 10 feet in that short space of time!

    So be aware if you ever let kids go out in that bay when tide is out, took me by surprise and I'm fairly confident in the water.

    I notice too when ever we approach a full moon we seem to get a weather reset back to rain. Not sure if that's just coincidence or not but see it quite often.

    • Like 1

    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 08 Feb 2021 Onward

    in Regional

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, mattyj said:

    BBC app had rain symbols all night now have lightning ⚡ symbols so has changed from earlier so maybe Dorset will get hit later 10pm onwards is that correct I am new to this

    Yes, there is potential showing on Radar coming out of France and Building around Jersey, Also South of Weymouth has already tried to spark. So anything still possible if things can fire up!

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