Davey80
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Posts posted by Davey80
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Its six days away and your looking at margins of 100 miles its not going to look like that 100% certainity. We do need to 'pop' that high though anyone got a pin ?
Think its been popped at 186hrs
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If we can get the next big low south of Greenland to undercut then we will be in business
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The ECM 240 chart is screaming at a potential invasion from the northeast. This is exactly what GP mentioned and at the right timeframe! He has been spot on this winter so far! Also, we have all joked about the CMA model but it seems to have been remarkably accurate and consistent with the other models changing about all the time! Would be interested to hear anyone elses view on this?
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We may think that none of this is possible next week but the low heights in Europe are almost guaranteed to drag lows nw to se under us. Once this set up is in place it'll be locked in for a while. Really looks like a copy of 78/79 or 47 now. We won't know how much snow will fall till the time is upon us but a lot of us have never seen anything this major before. Its completely different to 2010 when a lobe of the vortex dropped over us with developing snow. Next week could be organised snow storms attacking from the Atlantic!
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Seems the whole of the northern hemisphere is going to be obliterated with severe cold from some of these charts!
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Seems to be changing orientation at 162
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I honestly think people are kidding themselves. We are going to be stuck in this pattern for a while now I believe. Think we can write off the next 4 weeks for any proper cold and if it doesn't happen by mid Jan then we all know its starting to look like game over for the winter! Hopefully my move to Canada will be complete by end of 2013 so I'll get my snow then.
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Where can I see Roger's forecast please?
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If only the Azores high would just Swearing AGAIN off
Whoops
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Hi BA , the latest met updates seem to suggest zonal dross for the rest of december
Rest of the winter too! What they have seen to suddenly turn the winter into an above average one is a concern.
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Because unfortunately there is HP to our south over Iberia
Better run again though and once again a more increased risk of leading edge snowfall for many, Scotland looks to take an absolute battering.
Really the further south we can keep pushing this, the better - particularly for those folk down in the SW
SK
Where's the southern arm of the jet? Is it too far south?
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Why will it not just sink. It has nowhere to go further north
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We just need something now to drag in the colder air out east
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I think during this current situation we can gain a much clearer outlook by listening to the pros and looking at history in these blocking situations rather than relying on computer models. There is a trend now for cut of lows to develop to the south of the main low later this week, surely that is an indication the whole thing is going to slide under. Yes milder air may mix in for a few days but the block will be gaining in intensity all the time
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The whole thing is stuck from 102hrs so far. Massive massive tight low much further west by hundreds of miles and a stronger russian high. Neither will give in.
We may have southwest winds for a few days but a slight turn to the Southeast from a freezing europe will change the weather type very quickly.
Seems like my suspicions were right like night with the turnaround and airflow becoming more southeasterly
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Azores high is trying to poke its nose in. Wonder if it can make friends with the high to the NE now that the big low is stuck west.
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I think we have a new trend this evening from ECM with GFS now following. I only see it being milder for a few days now. Expect some cracking runs next week but will it be third time lucky
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The whole thing is stuck from 102hrs so far. Massive massive tight low much further west by hundreds of miles and a stronger russian high. Neither will give in.
We may have southwest winds for a few days but a slight turn to the Southeast from a freezing europe will change the weather type very quickly.
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Pretty sure its getting sucked back northwest at 144hrs
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The low is further west than the 12z so far and is really winding up south of Greenland. Signs it will struggle against the block
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Wouldn't be surprised to see a massive turnaround tbh.
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Sm thinks its all over! Not so sure myself.
South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 12th 2013>
in Regional
Posted
So snow is now rain on Monday then getting warmer gradually?