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Schmalex

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Everything posted by Schmalex

  1. Schmalex
    Is that a "yes, I couldn't possibly comment", no comment..........?
  2. Schmalex
    Newbury's gonna get pasted. I can feel it in my bones! Woohoo, bring it on!!!!!!!
  3. Schmalex
    Hi folks, Firstly, it is snowing here in Kingsclere. Only very lightly, mind you. Secondly, whilst I am looking forward to tomorrow's snow immensely, I looked at the ECM chart last night that showed a significant and deep low pressure coming off the Atlantic on Tuesday. Could this one bring significant snow fall to the region, as it appeared to be hell of a lot deeper than that which is coming tomorrow?
  4. Schmalex
    Could any of the learned folk here take a stab at what we might expect from this event in the Newbury area?
  5. Schmalex
    Here's hoping..... It'd be nice for us Central / Western Southerners to cop a big dump instead of watching our compatriots in Surrey / West Sussex get a pasting, leaving us to pick up the crumbs!!!!
  6. Schmalex
    We had about 3/4" lying snow this morning. It was lovely to have, but disappeared very quickly, with rain setting in by about 1000. I drove to the office in Guildford, where there was barely any.
  7. Schmalex
    Does anyone think that the potential band of snow on Friday could reach as far east as Newbury?
  8. Schmalex
    I was under the impression that the impact of the SSW won't affect us until much later in the month (if at all)
  9. Schmalex
    Folks, this thread has been fascinating today. Thank you so much for the great explanations and superb insights. I think I understand that the GFS has come (or is coming) back into,line with the other models, who, in turn, are showing signs of something truly magical potentially occurring over the next few weeks.
  10. Schmalex
    I'm confused, chaps. I am a mere beginner to all this and read this (and other) threads with great interest. However, I am baffled when I read two very authoratitively written contributions, placed almost consecutively on a page where the first one reads "12z GFS looking good, much better than the 0z" and the subsequent post, refering to exactly the same model run reads "12z GFS a complete horror show". How can this be? Surely there is only one way to read a model and everyone commenting on the models in the run understands what they are looking and how to interperet the results, so why such disparity in the comments?
  11. Schmalex
    Important question, folks. Back in December, I had a £5 bet with my Rayburn service guy about when it'll first snow in North Hampshire. I reckon 18 Jan, he's gone for 5th Feb. There are some damned clever people in here, so looking at the models, am I about to fleece him or lose my shirt?!
  12. Schmalex
    Forgive me for being significantly less knowledgable about things of a weather related nature than some posters on here, but I can't help that think that the models struggle to predict anything other than South Westerly driven weather with any sense of accuracy beyond 3 - 4 days. Consequently, as the stratosphere warming is a significantly more rare event than Easterly driven weather (which everyone has established the models struggle to cope with), combined with the SSW really only starting today, I would take anything that the models throw around at the moment with the biggest pinch of salt possible.
  13. Schmalex
    To be fair, we are only 18 days into winter, with 2 1/2 months to go and Jan and Feb are, traditionally, the UK's best chances of cold and snow. I wouldn't be writing winter off yet by a long way.
  14. Schmalex
    I am no weather guru at all, but, personally, I wouldn't trust the charts beyond about 48 hours at the moment. They have proven themselves to be pretty inaaccurate over the past 2 weeks. I'm sure someone will be able to explain just why they can't seem to get a handle on anything beyond 2 or 3 days at the most. Maybe there are some big underlying trends that the models just can't get to grips with at the moment......
  15. Schmalex
    Still -3c here in North Hampshire, with a lovely hoare frost
  16. Schmalex
    As a complete novice reading the model thread, it just comes across as a battle of egos trying desperately to out-do each other and prove that their version of the weather will be the one to win out. Quite frankly, there is very little of educational or forecasting value in that thread and, until people eat a bit of humble,pie, I have a feeling it will remain that way.
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