NoTraction

Hello peeps! Im no expert, infact the polar opposite, lol, but as far as im aware a technical SSW is reversal winds at 10hpa/30hpa for the majoraty of the northern hemisphere. which means at a specific hight if you average the total wind direction/speed at 60n the result is reverse to the norm. looking at the gfs 18z and nothing else, this surely reaches SSW status in FI convincingly for the first time that i have noticed (not every run observed, but always daily) based purely on the size of the secondary warming compared to the size/location of the PV the northen hemisphere has a larger area of warming over the pole with the pv shunted and squashed to lower latitudes! it may not follow the script but is really taking abuse!

if you want to check out whats happening in washington dc live http://www.fox5dc.com/live

Also to add, When High Pressure is at more northern latitudes such as Scandinavia, the volatility of the weather up there with the trop pv and the jet etc, there are bound to be more possible outcomes than if the High Pressure cell was over the Azores! Or should i say the possible outcomes will have more divergence in temp profile over the uk with a scandi high hence more scatter,

Surely the models dont show the least likely options? Not 3 times in one day anyway!!! Happy Christmass All!!!

GFS 18z shows a feature running down through Wales at 60h. There would be precipitation but what kind?

Out in the car andy, at the top of the hill i can see about 10 to 20 miles between the showers, sky is small blue patches between the mostly grey dense clouds but all land is green...... the dangler as you put it is delivering rain and sleet mostly at present. Hopefully as night sets in the temp will drop further and the dangler keeps coming.. who knows??? currently 3 deg

come on guys and gals,, its not that this modern cold spell is not delivering, your just wearing the wrong clothes. Took the dog for a walk in my speedo's and a T shirt and decided on some suitable flip flops and let me tell you... ITS ABSOLUTELY FREEZING OUT THERE..............

Dont forget this is a modern cold spell!!!!! you need to subtract 10 deg to find the modern temp...... Its currently minus 6 deg here and and allot of modern snow falling making it look lovely and grey.. almost a total greyout here at the moment.......

Sorry if off topic can i ask a question, i have searched but not found what i am looking for and there are alot of knowledgable posters on here! I have heard that the rainfall radars we all look at are not live but a prediction based on the model runs and current observations, it was mentioned on few posts recently, is that correct? Or is the precipitation radar live but wether its rain, sleet or snow is what the prediction factor is? Thanks

With this cold spell now upon us and the potential breakdown veering all over the place in FI, we are not into Feb yet! Could it be that the OPI is about to prove itself as a reliable tool after most of us thought it was bust.....

Morning all! Somthing im wondering about? is the gfs model??, if you view the gfs run now, i assume this is now what was a week ago the gfs para? I seem to remember in previous setups like we have now, more often than not the gfs tended to have an eastern bias and would position systems further west as we approached T+0, also the model would try and bring the atlantic in about day 7/8. Surely we now dont know of any bias with the updated gfs? So how can we comment on what the model normaly does, as i have read in some previous posts....

Azores high furthest west i have seen for a really really long time on ecm 240hrs could that low aproaching the uk disrupt further to the south!!!!!

so if last winter 13/14 strat polar vortex was 17th strongest by average wind speed through the layers at 60n, then where does this years 14/15 rate currently? and i wounder if there is any correlation between strength and possible disruption when strong warmings occur? cheers

4.9 deg.. raining steady, possibly to far south for today but over night and tomorrow if theres any precip then who knows. Dont expect anything for the next week apart from coldest weather this winter so far,,, but am feeling very positive for middle of jan onwards. Cohan updated info: http://www.aer.com/s...tic-oscillation Bodes well for rest of winter and current model outputs show far from warm 850 temps going forward to end of runs. Todays little system corrected south and west in the last 2 days, thats 48hrs out..... Was initialy thaught north and north east england would get in on the action,, now they are forcast dry.... If there are slight corrections made at 240 hrs out then by t+0 large differences will show.. i am hopefull the models will become V interesting by start of new year!!! Not to say there is no interest currently. Happy Xmas!!!

What a load of old tosh. Every single time we get a very good setup showing 5 days out it always always downgrades to a marginal event with lots of places missing out!?! Why does it never upgrade and materialise...? Many now say friday will be one to watch... iknow it will upgraade tomoro and tuesday and then downgrade when its within 48hrs to nothing much and very marginal.... I think i am now clinicaly depressed...:$

Id say its finally nailed on... Sundy will be cold!!! Lol. Monday onwards will all change slightly as to where exactly areas are affected by cold and snow, which is what makes the models and this forum soo bl**dy adictive.... All members will be sleeping like children on christmas eve tonight excited to see what subtle changes father gfs and his reindeer (ecm, meto, etc) bring. Some children who have been good will be soo happy and others will have a piece of coal;-)

18z worse for West Wales, but still allot of changes run to run up to just 72. Hoping for ianf's possible westward correction by tommorows runs but very happy that all models are showing winter finally ariving in the uk this weekend. Started watching the models early this year and feels like forever but finally the cold uppers come pilling in to the uk within 24!!!! Mint!!!