Weather-history

I have downloaded this one before but here's the 24th January 1993 Countryfile forecast and that severe wintry episode never happened.

Going to be doing a series of old Countryfile forecasts over the next few weeks. This is from the 17th January 1993, note the windspeeds that hit parts of Scotland earlier that day

Do you know what these reports remind me of? Those medical studies that say that too much of this is bad for you, a glass of this keeps heart disease at bay, They are that many of them that they all seem to cancel each other out! Instead of informing the public, people become fed up with them because they are all contrary! Didn't we have someone a couple of years ago say that snowy winters were going to become rarer and rarer? I can't remember his name but he came across as a bit of a plonker because he made this comment duirng the middle of winter 2009-10.

Timewarp back to the earliest Countryfile forecast that I have going back to the 10th January 1993. How often do you see a pressure chart showing 909mb low?

6.0

Not much of one but because it was extraordinarily quirky year.

1817

Its polite to quote the source of your info especially when you have extensively cut and pasted from it! I don't know what it is but you seem to have caught the "lets cut and paste Trevor Hartley's website" bug.

Manchester Winter Index 1988-89: 20 2006-07: 21 1997-98: 25 1974-75: 26 1989-90: 26 1973-74: 30 1987-88: 37 2007-08: 37 1991-92: 40 1975-76: 41 1999-00: 42 1992-93: 43 2002-03: 44 1994-95: 45 2011-12: 45 up to 25th February 1998-99: 47 2004-05: 47 2003-04: 50 2001-02: 50 2005-06: 59 1979-80: 66 1996-97: 72 2000-01: 77 1993-94: 78 1983-84: 82 1982-83: 85 1980-81: 90 1977-78: 90 1986-87: 100 2008-09: 105 2010-11: 119 1990-91: 126 1995-96: 135 1984-85: 140 1976-77: 141 1981-82: 149 1985-86: 159 2009-10: 197 1978-79: 262

Here's a couple of forecasts from the 11th and 12th of March 2004 as fronts engaged a Scandinavian high and cold continental flow. This gave snowfalls to the south but around here and indeed other parts of northern England it was pretty much a non-event as the frontal preciptation largely died out despite Met Office warnings for disruptive snow. I think the forecast for possible snow on the Friday night also went wrong as it largely fell as rain

Another interesting one that I have noticed is the very warm June and following below average December. The CET average for the following December after a June with a CET of greater than 16.0C is believe it or not 3.1C

John Every time you have said this I pointed out there appears to be some kind of link between a severe winter (a CEt of less than 2C) and the following summer not being particularly on the warm side. 1947 was a very notable exception.

It is very noticeable on the ECM charts http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/ec.php?alert=1&level=1&forecast=f240&lng=eng http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/eczm.php?alert=1&forecast=f240&var=t&lng=eng

With all due respect John, there is a difference between talking about stats and harping on about the same thing over and over again and I'm afraid NEB has being doing that with the winter of 2010-11, its the same thing over and over again, he banged on about this very point last winter and this is coming from someone as you know who regularly talks about weather stats. ---------------------------------------------------------- 100 years ago, going back to the winter of 1911-12, there was a hidden cold spell that was lost within the overall stats. 17th January - 5th February 1912 CET: 1.2, the overall winter CET was 5.1, it seems to happen agan with this winter.

Lower than people thought, 12.0C+ was speculated.

The crescent moon, Venus and Jupiter more or less in a line tonight. Looks fantastic

To be absolutely blunt, I think its about time you put this one to bed. Constantly harping on about is beginning to annoy me and probably others. I am dreading if we get another mild April and you start the ridiculous "will we ever see a cold April again?" barrage of posts.

Here is a Granada news report from 14th April 1998 and a BBC NW News report from 15th April 1998.

One of the great stats quirks Manchester maxima from 10th-15th February compared to 10th-15th April 1998 10th: 12C, 6C 11th: 14C, 8C 12th: 15C, 7C 13th: 17C, 8C 14th: 15C, 6C 15th: 14C, 8C 10th-15th Feb CET: 10.5 10th-15th Apr CET: 3.8

Here's a couple of forecasts from Easter Monday 1998. It was largely dry during daylight hours here but during the evening, snow showers moved in from the Irish Sea and it really was a wintry scene by 9pm. Had to pinch yourself it was mid-April.

I point out that 1962-63 was not a 1 in 10 year event. it was exceptional, it was 1.4C colder for the CET than 1946-47. You can't seriously expect another winter on that scale in the near future. Figures suggest that for Scotland 2009-2010 was the coldest winter since 1962-63.

Also the pecularity of that it can be 3C in January and you get rain and sleet showers and yet you can have 6C in April and the showers are of snow and they start as snow and I have experienced flakes of snow falling whilst the sun was shining in mid April and you can feel the warmth of the sun. Really odd.

I don't think extreme spring and autumn months temperature wise are quite as memorable as extreme winter or summer months because with summer and winter months you are approaching the absolute extreme, you don't with spring or autumn months. A month like August 1995, IMO is more memorable than April 2011 because you had higher temperatures, 30+C temperatures, with April 2011 temperatures were in the 20+Cs, significant for the time of the year but completely lost in a month like August 1995 or July 2006. 25C in April, although impressive for the time of the year is a fairly comfortable temperature but a 35C in August is not and therefore sticks in the mind more. Its the same with a -5C in April notable but a -20C in January.

Has anyone seen the film "Fantastic Voyage"? A story about the minaturising of a submarine containing a surgical team which is then is injected into the body of an injured scientist to perform an operation within in his brain to try and save his life? It was made in the mid 1960s. There are one or two flaws in the story but it was really well made with excellent special effects for the time. Can you imagine taking a journey through the human body in a submarine?

Unfortunately the sound quality is low. Interesting the radar during the Countryfile broadcast as it shows no showers inland but a couple of hours later they erupted widely. A neighbour was mowing his lawn that afternoon when a hail and snow shower struck!