[London & South East Regional Discussion]

Thames streamers have delivered here in south east Berkshire, but the angle of the easterly is crucial.

[London & South East Regional Discussion]

I may be wrong, but haven't the fax charts over the last day or so always shown the warm sector to the west? Maybe other factors are leading to a 'possible' rain event in our region?

[London & South East Regional Discussion]

Do we have any guidance on where it is moving now? I guess we can compare current track to latest prediction and then nowcast? Just a thought

[London & South East Regional Discussion]

If only it will look like that on Monday lol

[London & South East Regional Discussion]

My family are shocked at me. I've been following the strat forecasts and made my own prediction that the cold and snow would start w/c 14th January. My mum even marked the date on her calendar when I first mentioned it before Christmas lol

[London & South East Regional Discussion]

Thanks John, have been following Ian, but he's gone quiet, so thought I'd ask, just in case

[London & South East Regional Discussion]

It's a great chart, but no snow for me on that :-(

[London & South East Regional Discussion]

Was that the result of a streamer? These are hard to predict, but can deliver bucket loads of snow

Sorry, my question was to rubbke79

[London & South East Regional Discussion]

I know that Nov/Dec 2010 was a different set up but I was only ever forecast to get 5cm's max. I ended up with over 30cms and almost continuous snow fall for 3 days. Even on the night of the heaviest fall, the warning was a few cm's but nothing of note. As the night progressed the snow stalled and intensified over us and remained that way all night long. None of the TV forecasts predicted that. Who knows what will happen this week - unlikely to repeat the above but certainly possible for surprise snow to crop up.

[London & South East Regional Discussion]

John, do you know the latest MOGREPS view?

[London & South East Regional Discussion]

Sorry Tom for my initially response (not detailed at all). Monday's event is all riding on the position of a warm sector (this limit our chances of snow). The position of this sector is still being modelled and will change right up to the event. It is looking promising for snow in the south east, but subtle shifts could scupper our chances.

[London & South East Regional Discussion]

Lottiekent phrased it so much better than I did :-)

[London & South East Regional Discussion]

It's all about now casting near the event

[London & South East Regional Discussion]

Hi is snow now out of the question in the East Sussex area near uckfield. So hope it is still on could someone pls reply lol

It's all about now casting near the event

[Winter Model Discussion - 12/01/13 06z Onwards]

I guess we need to focus on dew points. We had snow here today with an air temp of 4, but the dew point was around 0. If we have the same setup on Monday (with the models predicting the same sort of figures) we may just be in the money

[London & South East Regional Discussion]

They will run out if grit before the bug event

Big even, not bug lol

[London & South East Regional Discussion]

why does Barnet Council waste grit.....we have had a gritter go up our road this evening....temps of 3 deg and no precip whatsoever..???

[London & South East Regional Discussion]

According to the map I'm in the red zone. I feel it's far too marginal here :-(

[Winter Model Discussion - 12/01/13 06z Onwards]

And on reflection, I am also guilty of jumping to the same conclusions!

[Winter Model Discussion - 12/01/13 06z Onwards]

If we look back at the previous 4 runs for all models, they have changed. What's to day this trend will not continue up to 6 hours before any event? Maybe we should just sleep on it and see what the models have to offer in the morning. It's a constantly evolving situation. We should all have learnt that by now.

[Winter Model Discussion - 12/01/13 06z Onwards]

Well I'm in east Berkshire, so it needs to drive in a long way. We do benefit from Thames streamers though, but that all depends on the wind strength and direction. Fingers crossed for last minute disturbances. I want some snow lol

[Winter Model Discussion - 12/01/13 06z Onwards]

I'm just commenting on the general feel regarding Monday's event, not the full picture mate. I'm happy with how it's going long term, just feel the only potential snow event for my patch is now a non event.

[Winter Model Discussion - 12/01/13 06z Onwards]

Even though some are disappointed with the latest models, myself included, it just goes to show how unreliable to models are at the moment, even in the reliable time frame. No doubt it will all change come tomorrow

[South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 12th 2013>]

Wouldn't 55 miles east of Reading place you in the North Sea lol?

[South East & East Anglia Regional Discussion - January 12th 2013>]

We had a few flurries between 12 and 2. It's dry and calm now. The temperature's about 3.5, so the lower dew points must have helped the initial rain turn to snow here.