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manutdmatt1986

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Everything posted by manutdmatt1986

  1. manutdmatt1986
    First signs of the colder air starting to dig in. Here we go! Its on!
  2. manutdmatt1986
    Those are from the GFS, which I don't rate at all. The NAE has just updated and looks good!
  3. manutdmatt1986
    Can someone explain where the idea that the snow chances for our region have downgraded? None of the models have downgraded the risk (they all have consistently shown rain during tomorrow turning to snow during the evening) and none of the professional forecasters have suggested downgrades. Thanks.
  4. manutdmatt1986
    None of the models have downgraded the snow chances four our region and none of the professional forecasters have changed their forecasts for our region. I don't know where the doom and gloom from some people on here has come from!
  5. manutdmatt1986
    There haven't been any downgrades!
  6. manutdmatt1986
    Which is what has been forecast all along.............
  7. manutdmatt1986
    NAE for midnight Sunday. Much as you were - http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201302091800&VAR=prty&HH=30&PRINT=1&ARCHIV=0&PANEL=0&INFO=0&WMO=
  8. manutdmatt1986
    Agreed. The GFS precipitation charts are always wrong and continue to go against all the other models and forecasts from the professionals.
  9. manutdmatt1986
    NAE out to midday tomorrow - http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=18&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD= So long as the precipitation stays light whilst its too warm to fall as rain it will mean the surfaces aren't too wet for the snow to settle tomorrow evening.
  10. manutdmatt1986
    People do realise that the cold air isn't due to dig in until tomorrow evening, don't they? Only people seem to be writing off snow in 24 hours time because the temperature are too high right now! As for the graphical forecasts on the BBC and Met office websites, ignore them. They are purely computer generated and have no human input.
  11. manutdmatt1986
    The GFS gives rain for almost the entire region with only temporary snowfall.
  12. manutdmatt1986
    Erm, why? I have seen nothing to suggest that. Ian is saying that the Met Office don't agree with the snow amounts shown on the NAE for Central Southern England. Nothing to do with our region.
  13. manutdmatt1986
    From Ian Fergusson: "No. High res no panacea: can actually exacerbate inaccurate solution. For example, UKMO-GM and MOGREPS-R output bears little resemblance to 12z NAE re snow distribution and amounts in central-southern England. Hence awaiting 18z with interest".
  14. manutdmatt1986
    The 850hpa temperature isn't a very important factor in this setup. Things such as dew points and precipitation intensity will be more important.
  15. manutdmatt1986
    Interesting map from the Met Office - http://twitter.com/MattHugo81/status/300298144065916928/photo/1
  16. manutdmatt1986
    Just seen the National forecast which appeared to be running off new data. It looked like the Northern extent of tomorrow's snowfall was further South but it still looked good for our region
  17. manutdmatt1986
    I believe they get information from the Met Office, somehow
  18. manutdmatt1986
    That would probably be light snow which, for some reason, the NAE always shows as blue (a bit confusing).
  19. manutdmatt1986
    Boom! - http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201302091200&VAR=prty&HH=36&ARCHIV=0&ZOOM=0&PERIOD=&WMO=
  20. manutdmatt1986
    Hmmmm. Latest NAE doesn't look good so far. Only out to midday Sunday but the snow risk looks to be much further North - http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&VAR=prty&WMO=&ZOOM=0&RES=0&PERIOD=&PANEL=0&ARCHIV=0&BASE=201302091200%26HH%3D24
  21. manutdmatt1986
    I'm in negotiations for the Medway snow shield to be temporarly deactivated
  22. manutdmatt1986
    A sure sign that snow is on the way. They only grit the roads when a light frost is expected.
  23. manutdmatt1986
    The high resolution WRF model on meteociel looks great for our region - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/wrfnmm.php
  24. manutdmatt1986
    Forecasting the weather in the US is a lot easier than forecasting the weather in the UK. The UK has the most complicated weather on earth.
  25. manutdmatt1986
    Just seen the latest BBC South East video forecast which appeared to show an amber warning signal when the warning level is only yellow....
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