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Skin

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  1. Skin
    Yes in the study I linked shows a 15 K above normal. section 2.2 paragraph [10]
  2. Skin
    I wonder if this is a response from the USLM disurbance. would be right on cue if so.
  3. Skin
    A USLM (Upper Strat/lower Meso) disturbance looks to be developing. From studies, this would indicate there is a 33% chance of major SSW within 14 days +/- 2 from this point. To read more about USLMs, check out this study. http://www.academia.edu/4056817/A_climatology_of_polar_winter_stratopause_warmings_and_associated_planetary_wave_breaking
  4. Skin
    0z GFS shows wave 2 pattern then giving way to a displaced wave 1 pattern at 30mb
  5. Skin
    The positive anomaly begins already at the 1mb level. just noting the warming has begun to an extent :-)
  6. Skin
    Meanwhile....
  7. Skin
    Zonal mean zonal winds also seem to be dying down too by Day 10. Good signs!
  8. Skin
    Just to add to the thread, notice the NAM is pretty darn positive throughout all levels.
  9. Skin
    Wave2 is on the increase. Maybe that's what the prolonged MT is stirring up as well.
  10. Skin
    Thanks. Great analogy. helps me understand better. And about the 1Hpa warming is anything to watch? looks to be downwelling at a decent rate. but i assume this is fairly normal this time of year.
  11. Skin
    How can wave1 reinforce vortex? i was under the impression it would help break it down. Also I noticed warming at 1.Hpa. is that indicative of a Canadian SSW?
  12. Skin
    And I run Accuweather Astronomy Facebook page, I know a lot about the solar events taking place and right now Sunspot 1654 is decaying somewhat. if it does produce a decent flare and CME, it would be a direct hit. As far as its impact to the stratosphere, it would need to get through the other layers first with a southward Bz.
  13. Skin
    From America here.. We been watching it like a hawk. I have connections to Accuweather and been giving them the best thoughts of this years SSW with the help of you guys. So my gratitude goes out to all of yall. And I can't wait for the arctic blast!
  14. Skin
    So as somebody from the US (east coast to be exact), like myself, this is bad news if the cold air is going y'alls way? or do both sides get some cold air action from it?
  15. Skin
    BTW can we use this graphic for a blog? How should we credit it if so?
  16. Skin
    This is a displacement SSW right? just want to make sure I am getting this right.
  17. Skin
    Once a warming is identified, no day within 20 days of the central date can be defined as an SSW. The length of the interval is chosen to approximately equal two radiative time scales at 10 hPa (Newman and Rosenfield 1997). This condition prevents the algorithm from counting the same SSW twice, as the zonal mean zonal winds might fluctuate between westerly and easterly values following the onset of the warming http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/JCLI3996.1
  18. Skin
    I have been following you guys since last week. Just starting to wrap my head around this phenomenon. I read some interesting studies regarding SSWs and the frequency of them occur during Neg QBO coupled with low solar activity (minimums) and Pos QBO coupled with higher activity (maximums) since we are technically nearing maximum, but a very low SSN cycle, I would dare to say we could agree the Neg QBO proxy would work in this case. My point is, As long as the QBO hangs east, we'll continue to have more SSWs which would make me think is the driver behind global cooling. But i guess that could be a long stretch of logic, made sense in my head. lol http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11214-011-9797-5?LI=true#page-1
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