Skin
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Posts posted by Skin
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More promising EPV forecast this morning,,,
I wonder if this is a response from the USLM disurbance. would be right on cue if so.
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A USLM (Upper Strat/lower Meso) disturbance looks to be developing. From studies, this would indicate there is a 33% chance of major SSW within 14 days +/- 2 from this point.
To read more about USLMs, check out this study.
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0z GFS shows wave 2 pattern then giving way to a displaced wave 1 pattern at 30mb
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Meanwhile what?
The positive anomaly begins already at the 1mb level. just noting the warming has begun to an extent :-)
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Meanwhile....
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Zonal mean zonal winds also seem to be dying down too by Day 10. Good signs!
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Just to add to the thread, notice the NAM is pretty darn positive throughout all levels.
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Wave2 is on the increase. Maybe that's what the prolonged MT is stirring up as well.One has to think that with such a prolonged torque that it would be very surprising not to have some stratospheric knock on effect. I would normally expect to see some type of increase in wave 1 activity as a result and yes we have seen some, but perhaps a bit more than this could be expected.
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If you push your finger on a balloon and it doesn't pop and you take your finger off then the balloon will resume its former shape straight away. It appears that the vortex does this as well, but strengthens as well - especially in the cooling phase. Cirus has demonstrated this in his post above with the positive NAM response to the weak wave 1 activity.
Thanks. Great analogy. helps me understand better. And about the 1Hpa warming is anything to watch? looks to be downwelling at a decent rate. but i assume this is fairly normal this time of year.
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Welcome Cirus and thanks - this thread is truly international!
I am happy to say that your English is a lot better than my French!
We may see that period of Vortex Intensification as the wave 1 activity seems to have reinforced the vortex rather than weaken it - the end of the month forecast at 10 hPa shows the vortex to be strengthening as one would expect.
How can wave1 reinforce vortex? i was under the impression it would help break it down. Also I noticed warming at 1.Hpa. is that indicative of a Canadian SSW?
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And I run Accuweather Astronomy Facebook page, I know a lot about the solar events taking place and right now Sunspot 1654 is decaying somewhat. if it does produce a decent flare and CME, it would be a direct hit. As far as its impact to the stratosphere, it would need to get through the other layers first with a southward Bz.
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Don't hat sum it up!!!
BFTP
From America here.. We been watching it like a hawk. I have connections to Accuweather and been giving them the best thoughts of this years SSW with the help of you guys. So my gratitude goes out to all of yall. And I can't wait for the arctic blast!
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So as somebody from the US (east coast to be exact), like myself, this is bad news if the cold air is going y'alls way? or do both sides get some cold air action from it?
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I honestly struggle to see how the stratospheric vortex will be maintained by the end of January- Brickfielder's post a while back highlighted the different scenarios, it's possible we could go through them all- propagation into the tropo-vortex would then become the crux of the analysis in the next few weeks
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It's having one last laugh now, but it's about to get torn apart... whether we get lucky or not is another question, but isn't it fun watching it crumble alone?!
BTW can we use this graphic for a blog? How should we credit it if so?
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I honestly struggle to see how the stratospheric vortex will be maintained by the end of January- Brickfielder's post a while back highlighted the different scenarios, it's possible we could go through them all- propagation into the tropo-vortex would then become the crux of the analysis in the next few weeks
`
It's having one last laugh now, but it's about to get torn apart... whether we get lucky or not is another question, but isn't it fun watching it crumble alone?!
This is a displacement SSW right? just want to make sure I am getting this right.
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Hmm, the second GFS run to establish a secondary warming around the Greenland area. This outcome could be very helpful in shifting the odds in our favour with regards to a decent tropospheric pattern developing after the initial SSW.
Also, a brilliant post by Steve earlier, the wealth of knowledge on here is something to behold and long may the constructive discourse continue.
Once a warming is identified, no day within 20 days
of the central date can be defined as an SSW. The
length of the interval is chosen to approximately equal
two radiative time scales at 10 hPa (Newman and Rosenfield 1997).
This condition prevents the algorithm from counting the same SSW twice, as the zonal
mean zonal winds might fluctuate between westerly and
easterly values following the onset of the warming
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I have been following you guys since last week. Just starting to wrap my head around this phenomenon. I read some interesting studies regarding SSWs and the frequency of them occur during Neg QBO coupled with low solar activity (minimums) and Pos QBO coupled with higher activity (maximums) since we are technically nearing maximum, but a very low SSN cycle, I would dare to say we could agree the Neg QBO proxy would work in this case. My point is, As long as the QBO hangs east, we'll continue to have more SSWs which would make me think is the driver behind global cooling. But i guess that could be a long stretch of logic, made sense in my head. lol
http://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11214-011-9797-5?LI=true#page-1
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Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2013/2014
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted