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That ECM

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    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 16/1/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Good evening all. The output in the short term is good/great depending on location. The longer term is confused past t96 maybe t72. We still have the effects of the SSW and Shannon's whojamakojit playing with the output. I would suggest that much to be resolved but I see the next spell of cold coming from the NE. If you look at the differences between the big 3 in fi ie t96 plus you will see little agreement which makes for great model watching.

    Like to take this opportunity to say a big thanks to GP, chino and co for their input and teaching.

    South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 14/01/13, 12z onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    Yes the trend does seem to be hinting at a midlands north snow event for Friday now. But things will likely chop and change.

    It will change for sure. Nightmare to forecast but meto are currently going for the low to slide along the south coast. If you look at temp differences for sat you will see Bournemouth at 6 with places like Newbury not getting much above freezing. From a IMBY point of view, it would be great if the low would actually be 100 miles further south. Looking at ECM and GFS this looks unlikely at this time. As we live this far south I guess we are used to this and we end up with a wintry mix and watch pictures of other parts of the country getting pasted.

    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 13/1/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    With small changes making big differences people are prob unsure how to make a comment. For eg t144 would be good for the north with a wintry mix below about Birmingham. UKMO would move the line further south and GFS in between. Detail at this time is impossible but the good news is that the cold isn't going to be shoved away. The big three have an under cut at varying degrees.

    South West/Central Southern England Regional Discussion 14/01/13, 12z onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    And a far few miles North of Winchester in Newbury too, I might add. acute.gif

    Having said that, it was pretty heavy stuff with a wet flakes thrown in.

    Whilst I haven't heard anything to the contrary, I would strongly suggest that ICE WILL BE A PROBLEM come the morning guys n gals, so take extreme care. help.gif Might even be a cover of snow on top of it for a few too.

    Indeed, ice could be a real issue. Still not sure about fri sat at the moment. Get the feeling the sea might modify the air to the wrong side but here hoping I am wrong. However I am very optimistic for the last week of the month and in to feb. north east attack which would be better with no marginal temps to worry about.

    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 13/1/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I have to say, I'm a bit miffed at the bullish nature.

    If anything, it could be said that - prior to output of the last 24-36hrs - talk of a strong block were "unfounded" or "optimistic". However, the most recent NWP output has moved towards a general broad juxtaposition, which agrees with a stronger NE blocking signal.

    We've seen strong consistency from the UKMO model, and this was further added to with the 12z - albeit slightly watered-down, yet broadly in-line with previous outputs. It's very much sticking to its guns - even though, 'That UKMO' was considered so extreme, that Exeter heavily modified it.

    For what it's worth, I really don't think anything will be decided for this weekend in the current outputs; that would belie confidence in the current NWP which, as we know, is currently plagued with record variance. Personally, I imagine the 12z ECM to - if anything - move closer to the UKMO, be it very subtle chang

    His location will tell you why he is bullish. We live in a poor are for cold and snow. The latest output for many is very good though.

    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 13/1/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by That ECM

    Fantastic output and with interest right now for some, interest moving to later in the week and for me huge interest later down the line (ECM) what a time to be viewing the output. The down beat comments have IMBY ring to them. Look at it from the bigger picture point of view and it is wonderful. December was not that long ago and it was t300 plus when there was something of interest for coldies.

    Hi JH, not always able to post a chart due to the device I am using or more probably my lack of skill in knowing how to.

    Southwest & Central Southern England Regional Discussion 12th January 2013>

    in Regional

    Posted

    I'd agree with this, Kiwi. Snowing currently in Kent as far West as Tunbridge Wells - although it might not be the best type of snow (light and granular) it seems to me that some parts of the country are likely to be pleasantly surprised. And that bodes well for us!

    Tonight has improved and snow is due at about 3.00 am. Tomorrow event would need to upgrade dramatically to have snow here. Highly unlikely I feel but I am optimistic moving forward as I am sure the UKMO is the model with best handle on the longer term.

    Winter Model Discussion - 12/01/13 06z Onwards

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by That ECM

    ECM out to 120 and doesn't look right to me. Nobody will convince me that the evolution between 72 and 96 hours is correct.

    I'm not one to bin runs, but on this occasion its straight into the recycling bin. As said earlier the models are all over the place.

    Jason

    Edit strangely by 144 it starts to look like METO and GFS.

    I would not disagree but many would take this run. T144 and t 168 are much improved for cold compared to previous ECM runs. Not able to post charts as on phone. This will raise a few eyebrows in the NE and the SW.

    Winter Model Discussion - 12/01/13 06z Onwards

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    We're drifting off-topic here but I don't agree with you at all. It's perfectly possible to have a very strong HP over southern Scandinavia sending frigid air to the SE of the UK but for that air to be very cold, clear and dry. I do agree there's more than enough to keep us all interested in the next 48-72 hours.

    I agree it is possible but equally, so is unstable pattern. All conjecture but interesting. In the here and now, we are not sure who or where the rain snow line will be in t24/48.

    There is one thing that we can take forward from this episode of model watching and that is when an SSW in forecast and comes into being, FI starts at t72 and normal rules and expectations are out the window. Ask IB. This has and is fascinating viewing, snow or not, long may it continue.

    Winter Model Discussion - 12/01/13 06z Onwards

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Indeed, but don't assume cold equals snow. It's entirely possible the SSW and a negative NAO will produce a very cold, blocked situation under HP to the NE. Under an ESE'ly flow from a frigid continent, it will be plenty cold enough for most but snow may well be limited.

    No assumption. No cold no snow. If we have sustained period of cold then snow will appear especially if the uppers become very cold and there is a strong breeze as others have pointed out. For now though, there are a few chances in the coming week and we will see where we go from there.

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