[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 30/12/12]

GFS continues its theme from winters past this morning http://www.meteociel.fr/...2&mode=0&carte=1

http://modeles.meteociel...ivesnh-1947-1-21-0-0.png

An attempt at heights to our n/e too http://www.meteociel.fr/...2&mode=0&carte=1

http://modeles.meteociel...hivesnh-1987-1-7-0-0.png then http://modeles.meteociel...ivesnh-1987-1-11-0-0.png

Not to say any of those will happen but the signals are looking more favourable for us

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/5846/gensnh-11-1-384_bnx0.png or 20 please!

There are a few more which would make people happy.

Lets hope more and more like these Start showing in future runs.

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -23/12/12]

Assuming that chart is correct, a northerly is in the pipeline. It ties in with the MetO forecast.

UK Outlook for Sunday 13 Jan 2013 to Sunday 27 Jan 2013:

There is greater than average uncertainty through this forecast period, though it looks likely to start with fairly average climatological conditions, meaning the south and and east of the UK will see the driest and brightest weather, while the north and west will tend to be more unsettled. However, there could be some rain at times anywhere across the UK. Temperatures will tend to be close to average for the time of year. Later, some marked changes of weather-type are possible, and the risk of spells of colder than average conditions increases.

Issued at: 1600 on Sat 29 Dec 2012

What this tells you is that they do not see the NH as currently shown by the output. If they thought this was the case then they would not need to put caveats in regarding potential cold. Sure they are aware that a SSW will happen and like the rest of us, they do not know what impact this could have. Though they must believe this increases the chance of cold.

The last output from GFS is encouraging as the NH is starting to look very different. Large swings in output to come over the coming ten days. Going to be very interesting to observe.

Regards

That ECM

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -23/12/12]

As +384 now takes us to mid Jan i've been hoping for some potential to be shown on the GFS runs.

Unfortunately that isn't the case on the 06Z with more of the same i.e No N blocking, Strongly positive NAO

Good afternoon. Not the most popular first post me thinks but I believe patience is required before we see changes in the daily model output. The SSW is still 7/8 days away. The output will change if the SSW does prog and if it does the output will reflect this. Will it be somewhere in main land Europe or over us? Again this will take time to see.

So, as I said at the beginning, patience needed which is very difficult when we are watching run after run showing little of interest for those wanting winter.

Regards.

That ECM.