SomeLikeItHot

7.7 to the 10th -0.3 anomaly (61-90) -0.9 anomaly (81-10)Min today of 2.3 and max likely around 12.5 should see a slight fall tomorrow or remain the same. Met office forecasts for 5 days and GFS 0Z ensemble mean after that give 11th 7.6 (7.4)12th 7.8 (9.5)13th 7.7 (6.25)14th 7.7 (8.0)15th 7.6 (6.7)16th 7.5 (6.0)17th 7.5 (6.25) +0.2 (61-90) -0.5 (81-10)18th 7.4 (6.0)19th 7.2 (4.5)20th 7.1 (4.25) -0.1 (61-90) -0.7 (81-10)…25th 6.4 -0.5 (61-90) -1.0 (81-10)26th 6.4 -0.5 (61-90) -1.0 (81-10) Certainly a switching colder in the weekends model output now trending to below average from at or slightly above. Still plenty of time for changes to that though before the end of month. Edit: Corrected the Date at top per March Blizzards post below! Edit2: Also corrected the last date to the 26th (was 27th).

Fire certainly, they are part of life in Australia. They can of course be even worse but how often have they occurring in October? I would be interested if you could show anything approaching the size of those fires in October before because as far as I know, and certainly that was what the NSW fire service said it was unprecedented in timing - not in size. Usually bad fires don't start for 2 months. But all this is a secondary issue. Australia (ie an entire continent) had record heat over the past year. I'm pretty sure that doesn't occur during a global ice age.

At the end of September it was the hottest 12 months period on record in Australia. September recorded the highest monthly anomaly for any month on record. http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/updates/articles/a005-sep-2013-warmest-on-record.shtml The result was bad bushfires in early October in NSW. Typically you expect them in Late Nov-Jan in NSW.

Its not a particularly strong signal for high pressure over us, but rather the result of a wide range of ensemble outcomes from north to south of us as there is no strong centre. You've got to remember if the split of ensemble paths was 50% to the north and 50% to the south and nothing centred on the UK, we can still get an ensemble mean that is centred over the UK. Certainly there is no consensus on the 240 hour outcome, but is there ever? But I would be surprised if the ECM Op was an outlier. Its probably biased to being more ensemble members over or to the south, but the low near Iceland would be much lower than 1000 if there wasn't a group of ensembles putting high pressure there.

8.4 to the 7th. +0.3 anomaly (61-90) -0.3 anomaly (81-10) Min today of 4.5 and max forecast around 9.5, should see a drop tomorrow. Met Office forecasts for 5 day and GFS 0z ensemble mean after that gives. 8th 8.2 (7.0) 9th 8.0 (6.0) 10th 7.8 (6.2) -0.1 anomaly (61-90) -0.8 anomaly (81-10) 11th 8.0 (9.75) 12th 8.0 (8.7) 13th 7.9 (6.0) 14th 7.8 (7.5) 15th 7.8 (6.5) +0.3 anomaly (61-90) -0.4 anomaly (81-10) .. 20th 7.4 +0.3 anomaly (61-90) -0.3 anomaly (81-10) ... 23rd 7.1 +0.2 anomaly (61-90) - 0.4 anomaly (81-10) So continuing to track between the 61-90 and 81-10 averages. A long way to go yet but its worth noting that the final 61-90 average is 6.6 while the final 81-10 average is 7.1.

So 8.4 to the 6th +0.3 anomaly (61-90) or -0.3 anomaly (81-10) That's after the first 3 days have been shifted back down again. That would have made yesterday 8.3. Min today was 5.3 and max around 11.0 tomorrow should also be 8.4. Met forecasts for 5 days and GFS 0z ensemble mean gives. 7th 8.4 (8.2) 8th 8.3 (7.75) 9th 8.1 (6.2) 10th 7.9 (6.5) 0 anomaly (61-90) - 0.7 anomaly (81-10) 11th 8.1 (10.25) 12th 8.2 (9.0) 13th 8.1 (6.5) 14th 8.0 (7.0) 15th 8.0 (8.0) +0.5 anomaly (61-90) -0.21 (81-10) ... 20th 7.9 +0.7 anomaly (61-90) +0.1 (81-10) ... 22nd 7.7 +0.7 anomaly (61-90) +0.1 (81-10) So currently trending near the 81-10 average. Notablely the ECM ensemble average seems to be going much cooler than GFS at the end of the run but that's still 10+ days out.

Or indeed today! They have just changed them back to what they were. Very strange.

I am just waiting for the what will the weather be like in 10 minutes time thread, as I think I might be able to get that one right.

8.6 to the 5th - No change from yesterday despite a daily figure of 6.9 for the 5th. It seems that they have revised the daily CETs for the first 3 days of the month up.Previously they were1st 10.3 (As can be seen here)2nd 9.7 (and here)3rd 8.24th 6.05th 6.9 Now they are: 1st 10.72nd 10.53rd 8.64th 6.05th 6.9

I think that would be a daily record if that occurred, previous record is 13.0.

8.6 to the 4th +0.1 anomaly (61-90) : -0.4 (81-10) Min today of 3.2 and likely max 11 should see another fall tomorrow to 8.3 Met forecasts for 5 days and the GFS 0z Ensemble mean gives 5th 8.3 (7.1) = average 61-90, -0.6 81-10 6th 8.2 (8.1) 7th 8.3 (8.6) 8th 8.3 (8.1) 9th 8.1 (7.0) = +0.2 (61-90), -0.5 (81-10) 10th 8.1 (7.5) ... 15th 7.8 = +0.3 (61-90), -0.4 (81-10) ... 20th 7.3 = +0.2 (61-90), -0.5 (81-10) So tracking slightly above the 61-90 average, and about 0.5 below 81-10 average.

I think you mean "Falls back to average". If it s trend to below average its a worry but it dipped below in 2012 also in mid-lat Nov and Dec before bouncing back.

Min today of 2.2 and a Max of around 9.5 forecast which should give a big drop tomorrow.Met forecast for 5 days and GFS 0z ensemble mean after that gives:4th 8.5 (5.9) anomaly = +0.1 (61-90) -0.5 (81-10)5th 8.3 (7.25)6th 8.2 (8.0)7th 8.2 (8.2)8th 8.2 (9.0) anomaly = +0.2 (61-90) -0.5 (81-10)9th 8.1 (7.5)10th 8.1 (7.5)...15th 7.8 anomaly = +0.3 (61-90) -0.4 (81-10)...19th 7.5 anomaly = +0.3 (61-90) -0.4 (81-10)I decided to include the anomaly relative to both 61-90 (which is what the HADCET numbers are quoted against) and also the 81-10 running average for he month for aditional reference.So far compared with last month we are looking at something much closer to average.

Well the Ensemble mean tracked it pretty accurately this month (unlike Sept) from mid month they were saying 12.6-12.7 which was basically right on pre-corrections.

Final figure is 12.5 http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_2013 pre corrections it was 12.7 so a -0.2 correction (or really as BFTV says above -1.5) http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2013

Moscow is in Europe which extends by most definitions to the Ural mountains. Although the snow line is close to the boundary of Europe except in the very north.but Scandanavia is in Europe also and has snow cover.

And the big one in the mountains (although it didn't do as much property damage as the one around winmalee/springwood) was started by the defense force doing live explosive work on a high fire danger day.Anyway very unseasonal. Usually Nov-Jan is the peak fire season in NSW.

Min today of 6.5 and max likley around 13.0 again, should end the month on 12.7 (12.67) - max would need to be less than 12.0 to hit 12.6.So after corrections we are looking at 12.2-12.6.

7.2 for me.

Some encouragement on the 12Z gfs in late FI. High shifting over/slightly north of UK linking with a strong greenland high pulling colder air into Europe. FI, but Better than not seeing it!

Min today 3.6 (lowest since mid may) and max likely around 13.0 should see a fall to 12.8 tomorrow. So Met forecasts take it to . 30th 12.8 (8.3)31st 12.7 (10.8 ) + 2.1 anomalySo 12.3 - 12.7 seems a likely final range after corrections.

Why is the rate of change more important than the level?

13.1 to the 24th. + 2.1 anomaly Min today of 10.0 and max around 17.5 Should remain on 13.1 tomorrow. Met forecasts for 5 days and the GFS ensemble mean afterwards gives 25th 13.1 (13.75) 26th 13.2 (13.0) 27th 13.1 (12.25) 28th 13.1 (11.7) + 2.3 anomaly 29th 13.1 (9.0) 30th 12.8 (7.75) 31st 12.7 (9.75) + 2.0 anomaly So likely range still I would put at 12.4 - 12.9, with 12.0 - 12.8 after corrections.

At the start of the line you want cold in December at the start of your post, but by the end you want it in early November?

13.2 to the 23rd + 2.1 anomaly Min today of 5.2, and max around 15, should see a fall to 13.1 today. Met forecasts for 5 days and GFS 0z ensemble mean after that would see 24th 13.1 (10.1) 25th 13.1 (14.2) 26th 14.1 (13.5) 27th 13.1 (11.9) 28th 13.0 (11.5) 29th 12.9 (7.75) 30th 12.7 (7.0) 31st 12.5 (8.0) +1.9 anomaly. Enembles firming on a cooler dip at the end of month which should pull th CET down slightly. I would estimate the likely pre correction range at 12.3 - 12.9, Post correction 11.9 - 12.8.