[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 8/1/13. The hunt for cold (is closer).]

Hope this helps, with a bit of context for you too:

Outlier

Technically, it's a term which mathematicians - like moi - or statisticians attach to a reading which doesn't tie-in with the rest; a bit of a black sheep which has got lost somewhere. In meteorology, the term 'outlier' is be used in the context of assessing support for the various model runs. These model runs (sometimes up to 50 different ones) are compiled into ensemble charts, so that they can be visually analysed against one another. It is at this point that you'll see those 'black sheep', where a run goes off on one, relative to the rest. In the main, those are then discarded as outliers, ie: runs without support of the collective suite.

Shortwave

Essentially, these are embedded flow disturbances which disrupt the overriding synoptic pattern. In meteorology, it's wise to bear in mind two patterns: the overriding parental one (zonal, blocked, etc...) but then there is also a child meso pattern, which is often most influenced by shortwave disturbances. Shortwaves are notorious for their synoptically subtle influences which - once amplified - can, and often do, completely change a pattern. To spot them, look for little hook/kinks in the isobars. But shortwaves are not always bad news, and sometimes synoptically you need them, in order to progress or move to a more advantageous pattern. But timing and location is absolutely crucial, and this is what can cause such utter frustration. Nick S loves a good shortwave

Toppler

A term only ever used in reference to Northerly's. Essentially, a 'toppler' is a short-lived - or even non-existent Northerly - which is synoptically spoilt by high pressure ridging from the Atlantic. A toppler can, nonetheless, 'produce the goods' - only that it's short-lived (perhaps 24-36hrs) and often belies a fairly mobile pattern. Not the best winter synoptic, although I'd hazard a guess they're fairly common for the UK; at least, more common than, for instance, an Easterly flow - which, by contrast, is characteristically colder and has much more longevity associated with it.

Hope that helps you - and indeed others - with a few of the myriad of meteorological terms.

SB

nicely summed up.:-).

[Winter Model Discussion 18Z 8/1/13. The hunt for cold (is closer).]

Yes not good in regards to shortwave scatter, but by no means a done deal....await 12z..

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards]

Lets take a back seat for one mo, and be honest most of the real is in latter frames...but you have to be honest,its coming one way or the other.heights cannot now be disscounted, or otherwise..

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards]

Prep, yourselfs, for model agree.......WINTERS ÖN BOARD.....and perhaps dramaticly so.

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards]

The issue here isn't within 144 hours Nick it's the 7-10 day period where a lot of the perturbations have backed off the Greenland high idea, instead opting to place more energy around this area and an attendent Atlantic incursion into the UK. In my mind, potential heights around Greenland are the difference between a cold snap this weekend followed by status quo and something rather more sustained.

. I could,nt agree more with this post,hints are slowly becoming trends in regards greeny HP, and anyone in the know,does know thats the angle for longeivity.and im confident we,ll get there...

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards]

Lets be clear here...if ecm follows suite its still not a done deal......or is it!!!!....

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards]

Would,nt be at all suprised, to see the continental polar votex to be shifted further westward, ún near coming runs....delivering the ever craved DEEP, cold......:-)

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards]

Óh, yes,,,,,even myself is starting to get carried away by now. Strong feelings of output mód agree immenent great run again.ECM, may well join the party, v,soon..........

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards]

Bang

. It does,nt realy get better than that, for uk on 6z. The all impotant turning, point in regards to cross agree???

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting 08/01/13 00z Onwards]

Good morning. Ithink its now a safe bet to suggest in short/mid term it will most likely be a halfway house between the ecm/gfs, output with at least a cold shot of sorts, with some seeing some point, over the coming 6/8 days.in the longer term,its even more unsure, However, the continues to be growing signs of heights at Greenland, and a block becoming established, before months end....with perhaps quite dramatic, outcomes. Some faboulous output viewing in the near coming imo.

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13]

Not in the reliable i grant, but there you have it 18z, get us back on track hints, will im sure v, soon turn more in the way of firming, espec, regarding Greenland. See you tomorow, good evening.

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13]

Oh, dear for persons to be writing off winter at this stage, is somewhat ludicrious. In former post i suggested i was looking forward to the ecm/gfs 18z tonighwt and agree on ecm being underwelming,but again this can be fully expected in regards to ssw,and the like thats one reason i was exited in beleive something of that nature may manifest.dont hold myself to it but shocked i would,nt be if by the end of the 18z, things again were way on track...

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13]

Ecm,has major wobble, after 144. Nothing of concern imo think we may see complete difference on the 18z gfs.as some suggest with atmospheric change occur models struggling somewhat.ecm flagging atlantic back far to quickly to be beileved for my liking.

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13]

A good run 12z. Will we soon get cross model agree?.my thoughts are yes...

. Well good agree thus far mid term. Its the later that obviously needs a close eye, but idő see cross mod, agree for prolonged cold soon, we have already to date had cross mod agree, with all at the very least hinting at HP at Greenland, and my previous point was i feel thats soon to be where indeed the strongest cross agree will soon come. Looking very much forward to Ecm, and 18z Gfs.

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13]

A good run 12z. Will we soon get cross model agree?.my thoughts are yes...

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13]

Gfs,12x, fab for large scale snow event....again fully expect reinforce,on 18z..:-)

[Winter Model Discussion - Cold Hunting -12Z 06/01/13]

Good morning all. New to the net forum, well gfs6z continues to show a colder scenario for uk although seems to now want the cold,(colder!) To our green pleasant land earlier, however with current happenings i,e strat warm, Its only logical outputwill throw out EVO, with wild swings and the like. Personaly im interested in what the 18z will throw up, as i feel by then we may start to see a more positive, start tocross model agree??,i may well be wrong in that suggetion though, but feel with current will start to clasp the upcoming potential cold, that to my eye is ALMOST now certain, whats lesz certain is how prolonged thingscould end up. Again be interested from my gore from 18z onwards...lets see,regards.