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Due South

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    Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

     WINTRY WALES Personally, harsh winters are still happening around the world, like you've said. Will we be on the end of one of those??. Yes I believe we will. But we are such a small place that everything needs to fall into place. It's not like we are the size of China or USA where there guaranteed snow "SOMEWHERE" within the country.

    I feel we will definitely see another cold winter soon enough..

    • Like 5

    Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Hi Guy's. I know this is the wrong thread. Not sure which thread to post this in. So please move where appropriate.

    Is there any correlation between either a Cold (WEST USA Winter forecast) or Cold (EAST USA Winter forecast) and any effects on North West Europe.

    Reason the question. I noticed Weatherbell have forecasted a Cold western side of a America and a above average eastern side.

    Thanks in advance for your thoughts.

    • Like 1

    Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    4 hours ago, SqueakheartLW said:

    Update number 4 for my QBO analysis and recent trends once again

    I shall start with the QBO phase plot like I usually do which is still showing the strange pattern but less of a strange one than it was at least

    qbo_phase_plot.thumb.png.e3753b3a9bb3b08c4da31785a16f513b.png

    This is showing 3 main areas of QBO which it has to be said can happen sometimes but the only real strange part here is just how shallow the westerly region is on the latest plot. 30hpa has a raging westerly today touching 25 m/s which is very fast for a westerly. Maybe this is in compensation for the easterlies at all other levels. As before 10hpa westerlies appear to continue to weaken as easterlies are becoming more common at this height on these plot charts.

    This could be backed up by these three snapshots of the equatorial regions of the Earth at 10 hpa from today

    2065720668_EqAtlantic.thumb.jpg.4d5dcfb0b0861f1f097bbc98da35d436.jpgAtlantic Region with arrows showing general wind direction or an X where it is virtually still

    575266942_EqPacific.thumb.jpg.6372e780e4afe7e4427feadc0e525cec.jpgPacific Region with same arrows and X's as above

    1419183126_EqIndian.thumb.jpg.c4b664e6f799f5aa8ddaa1407f5124fe.jpgIndian Ocean Region with same arrows and X's

    What you probably saw, especially with the Pacific and even more so the Indian Ocean regions was the area of easterly winds. That area of easterlies has been expanding recently and is slowly speeding up too. Is this a sign the EQBO is returning to 10hpa?

    Now time for the usual focus on what has taken place within the different levels of the atmosphere, starting with 10 hpa to 100 hpa

    qbo1.thumb.jpg.cbe11864ee5261b09b2efdfd2393e314.jpg

    As with the previous updates the strange situation with 4 general layers of QBO continues

    1 - The 10 hpa region continues to look very ragged and appears to have shifted further towards a change to EQBO. This can be backed up by the developing easterlies above Indonesia and Singapore especially at 10 hpa

    2 - Easterlies continue in the region between 15 hpa and 20 hpa but as can be seen with daily variations in strength and occasional westerly days appear at times

    3 - 30 hpa continues to see a dominance of the westerly QBO and still it refuses to move from this area. Maybe the changes above will help to get this region descending down to the lower stratosphere

    4 - Although 40 hpa seems to have now in general lost the easterly anomaly 50 hpa to 100 hpa continue to see general easterlies persisting although still weakening overall. This should eventually allow the westerlies at 30 hpa to finally descend.

    Time for the deeper atmospheric view of the QBO and some interesting developments have taken place on this chart too

    qbo2.thumb.jpg.8dcfce9a86f72669d680a68111176c5b.jpg

    1 - The first big area of note is how much the easterly QBO has descended between 3 hpa and 7 hpa in just the last few days since my last update. The last update only showed a tiny pale green mark in the corner. Now there's a whole zone of weak easterlies at all of these levels. This is really getting a move on but then looking at the rest of the chart at these high levels it seems the QBO does change very quickly above 10 hpa.

    2 - The second region of note is what is happening between 10 hpa and 20 hpa. Notice how the weakest westerly colour is still expanding and has weakened enough to reveal the couple of weak easterly patches in the middle of this region. Maybe this easterly region that doesn't show up at this resolution as well as the one descending down from above will eventually merge into a new EQBO, resulting in a failure of the WQBO instead of the EQBO

    3 - Overall this chart shows that the easterly anomaly has continued to weaken and westerlies are descending down to below 40 hpa on average now. For the sake of a possible return of the EQBO this process needs to continue to allow the westerlies at 30 hpa to descend

    4a and 4b - Westerlies look to be becoming ever more dominant at 30 hpa and a clear strengthening is seen on this chart, so much so that the average wind speed is now comparable with normal WQBO winds from the last WQBO. I don't know what effect this will have on the atmosphere since the WQBO layer is so shallow and with easterlies below it too with a much deeper layer.

    Next I have a new chart to show you, or should I say a part of the QBO table of data from NOAA

    qbo4.thumb.jpg.2232d4b0a5e2ce174fafed6acf6f7c19.jpg

    This focuses on 30 hpa and why they consider this level of the atmosphere most important to determine the QBO is unknown to me. The red box clearly shows the first recorded QBO disruption event when the 2016 EQBO failed and returned into another year of westerlies. The orange box shows the most recent QBO figures showing the slowdown from the peak of the last WQBO into the period of weak EQBO before the slow weakening back towards westerlies again. Now what figure will be in the green box for July. Based on charts throughout this update I can imagine the number will be positive again but how positive?

    Next I will show both the QBO plot chart again as well as the monthly QBO plots showing all QBO phases based on stage within the cycle

    qbo_phase_plot.thumb.png.e3753b3a9bb3b08c4da31785a16f513b.pngqbo3.thumb.jpg.902fb10582b6f4227713d4bda4bd9068.jpg

    I've decided to make a prediction as to where I think July 2020 is going to feature on the right hand chart. I feel July is a weakened version of the westerlies plot graph in the top right corner near the word westerlies with weak easterlies both at the top and bottom so I feel July will be somewhere within the red circle with 07 in the middle of it as a weak westerly QBO.

    As for August 2020 with some interesting recent developments with increasing signs of easterlies returning then I feel this WQBO is going to be a very short one like the last EQBO and also weak too like it and then we will possibly power up into a more normal EQBO after this strange QBO event we have had in recent months.

    Another thing that backs up the building of easterlies from 20 hpa upwards is what is showing on the atmospheric charts I showed last time

    Untitled.thumb.jpg.c15a8a63beede4487771f021df6e9dfc.jpg

    Focus on all the areas showing within the green circles I have drawn over these charts. Notice the increasing prevalence of the pale blue weak easterly regions taking over close to the equator combined with the weakening of westerlies between 3 hpa and 10 hpa. Looks like the EQBO could be building back up again ready to start a new EQBO cycle off again.

    Maybe there is hope that the EQBO wasn't killed off after all and in fact it could be the WQBO that should have started to descend from 10 hpa at around this point of the year that will fail instead.

    Hi. What's your thoughts on the upcoming winter regarding the QBO?

    Cold hunt - models and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, cheese said:

    Uh, yes? You only need to compare the number of warm/heat records to cold records over the past 20 years. 

    But we are now moving back to colder phase. It will be interesting in another 20/30 years of satellite data. Once we have been through both warm and cold cycles.

    Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    Well the models are having fun with everyone, up down, roller coaster covers it. But in the quieter world up aloft what has been happening?

    Obviously it is the 500 mb anomaly charts. They are means so do tend to be less up/down compared to the synoptic 6 or 12 hourly outputs. Indeed I would suggest it might be a better idea to simply look at the synoptic 500 mb chart run to run or better still to compare like runs, you may have heard that somewhere else before!

    Anyway

    The ECMWF-GFS this morning

    Not surprisingly they are not that different to what they have predicted over the past 4 or 5 days, see below

    Atlantic ridging towards Greenland and EC still with GFS now showing a building of ridging over Scandinavia with an extension west towards Greenland. Something that the occasional run on the 6 hours outputs has suggested. Marked troughing on both remains into Europe.

    The configuration on these two shows lower contour heights on EC compared to GFS. However on both the upper flow shows the cold will persist over the next 6-10 days. Okay it may wax and wane but no signal showing for any mild air for the UK.

    So what about NOAA and it has a chart that covers 8-14 days out.

    The 6-10 last evening, largely between the UK and Scandinavia well north with the flow dropping into the European trough. About a week ago the contour flow had the slightest hint of this. The actual +ve height anomaly is show away from any of this, just off the American coast. With such a meridional flow obviously the contour heights over the UK area are higher than the other two. This has little effect ob surface temperatures, indeed if there is any surface ridging in between weather systems might create lower values at the surface. To me the strong flow out of America does leave a question mark for day to day. Will any deepening systems move NE or SE once into the eastern Atlantic?  With the deep trough east of the UK one would expect them to steer SE or ESE, which may provide some excitement if they get close to the UK. Looking at their 8-14 day chart and perhaps the most interesting change from the 6-10 is the increase in –ve heights over NW Europe. Again little signal for any mild air. That is unless we get a flow not easterly but SE/or worse SSE with air originating from the Med. Nothing to be concerned about in the next 6-10 days but a possibility beyond that.

    So, overall the cold will continue, the synoptic models will come and go so to speak on its depth and ideas on where/when any ppn will occur. Up to 24 hours out forget what the models may predict, they are right a few times at longer time scales but not often. Just think back to summer set ups and how often they get the rainfall correct? In winter there are another 8 or so additional variables to get right.

    Hope this summary helps calm the nerves a little.

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

    Don't you just love this MAN!! Calm within a storm

    • Like 4
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