[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Looking at the 12z / faxes looks like unfortunate timings with the cold front moving south and the Atlantic low moving in keeps the low on a south of the uk track - just bad luck really.

 

off topic - it’s been a fascinating chase - although feels like it’s been going on for weeks but a thank you to all the inputs on both sides of the coin - looks like very much model fatigue setting in and just bad luck the pieces not there to give icing on the cake with a noteworthy snow event.

 

time to take a break and come back for anything in Feb that may be of interest

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

9 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Latest FAX shows a convergence of fronts (one coming down from the north) on Wednesday...so who knows, maybe a chance?

If those fronts could only straddle the M4. Corridor that really would be a news worthy event - as it stands looks like northern France / Normandy into Belgium are in line for a pasting as the moisture on the front boundaries will be where the action will be - looks like the cold front sweeping south has little moisture on it and it keeps the Atlantic low from encroaching on our neck of the woods - typical heads you lose tails you lose for UK - talk about bad timing - but the margins are small a 50/100 miles shift north and south coast may be back in play where in the grand scheme of micro scheme is tiny 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Apologies for my ignorance - is the Ec46 updated daily or weekly . Just seems reading the updates people kindly put on here it flips about all over the place - specially wk 3/4 . Is it renown for being a good indicator over a ; week period ?

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Don’t think we have had an event like the one forecast the next few days . As much I would like there to be a reasonable covering  (12z ECM ) it does look more likely going by Meto that it be wet non settling snow we see in london area - we won’t know until we start getting reports as the low passes thru 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

When there’s an Arctic HP in the mix, uncertainty reigns supreme.

Add to that the usual issues with things like jet stream velocity, angle, and general energy distribution in the N Atlantic, you get this uncertainty.

Couldn’t agree more Crewe - been on here long enough that usually one would say mild would be default back - but what’s so intriguing is the NH profile and just how different it is at the start of this winter then I can remember post 2010 .

62/63 famous winter was largely driven by + PNA wonder if the same is driving this 

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

4 days of snow cover ( paths / roads mostly clear) shows what a HLB around Greenland does for UK winter Synoptics . In 50 years I can prob count only 5-7 occasions I’ve seen snow stick around this long in london last time 2010 . So gonna make the most of a glorious winter scene - it’s sensational today in the cold sun

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Very Christmassy early “ attempt” at a commute -alas no thameslink so wfh

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

Did we all learn nothing from last year ? Enfact the last 18 + years (2012)FI always starts at 72 + anything more at winter leads to toys = prams= out

[Model output discussion 9th April onwards]

2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Well worth watching these videos, and listen carefully  to what the forecaster says! Of course they change, that is because the models are 'trying' to predict what and when changes will occur to the weather.

 

Totally agree John  , found that video excellent and very informative and shows just how complex these situations are . 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

12 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

It was a clear sunny morning in Streatham and now the clouds are building to my east. 

It's amazing how beautiful the snow looks when the sun is out. 

The clouds building to my east 

 

small world lol - i went to St Joseph college at crown point , havent seen the back of it nearly 32 years prob all change around there

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

35 minutes ago, maplesyrup said:

So are there signs of a Thames streamer overnight or is this going down as the one of the worst easterly events for SW London in history?

Fine margins - deep cold level

and this could of been up there with 91 without the deep cold - but Darcy was the trigger low but seemed to aloft warm air as well to cap the shower activity as this had been a weak Thames Streamer 

 

still some areas have totally max out in other sreas

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

intensity now picking up and prob 5 in flake size on voldermort scale

 

nice to see finally day 3 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

day 3 of the 2021 easterly sprinkle - despite having showers all night we probably reaching 0.5 cm now .

so sadly one of the weakest Thames steamers events , goes to show to nothing is set in stone despite wind direction and cold uppers.

 

many are asking why so weak when the potential is there , must be Darcy is still too close and effecting convection ??? Real shame could if had 3 solid days of snow under ice days which is very rare in london.

 

still beautiful and each cold snap is unique

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

does feel in SW London we are just one heavy shower away from a decent covering - TYypical a very rare ice day but not moisture around except for tiny flakes

 

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

16 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yeah same here, the current snowfall whilst light is turning into a actual legitimate dusting with things going more white on surfaces. Even hints of white now within the grass. This is about as good as I expected it could be so anything above this point is a bonus, and obviously any streamer is a wildcard solution.

@yamkin - I hope I'm wrong about it not being too strong of a streamer though, I'd love another strong event that drops 15-30cms across a large area. I'm thinking more 5-10cms though if it does come off and over a longer time period than 09.

that do me !!! yep 09 was prob a once in a life time experience for a london borough having 10 inches that night

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

16 minutes ago, Great Plum said:

Snow has increased a little in intensity now to around 4/10

yep  3/4 here in Sutton on the Voldermore Scale LOL

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

1 minute ago, Paul Sherman said:

Yh what did us over here in 2009 was the differing wind direction at 700hpa down this end of the Estuary with a NNE Steering wind creating frictional drag into the Estuary (at our end) whereas 20 miles further west the 700mb winds were ENE and also cloud tops rose upto 600mb, plain and simple the showers formed too close to the Estuary shore and not 50-100 miles further out and scuppered the coasts with an Inversion layer. I always look to see where the convergence lines at 700mb to 600mb are setting up in these instances and where the streamlines are concurrent to where the coast and land is. Its crucial in these situations.

i still remember that piece you put together afterwards explaining what went wrong your end - thats the thing about this site that sometimes get lost in the ramps and tantrums that its a great place to learn and develop your knowledge. Rather than moan im more interested what happen yesterday that made the outcome different to what the models had thought and too some areas a bust - much more fun than toys throwing

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

7 minutes ago, Paul Sherman said:

Really been coming down here for the last hour, traffic on roads now down to around 10mph, whats it like in Rayleigh or the higher places around here with some hills ? But grass totals topping up nicely now and all paths and roads covered easily now meaning the ground temps are very condusive to settling.

Temp is -2.6c

Dewp is -4.3c

Stunning spell over Easterly weather and the cold is really setting in now.

Have not looked in the Model thread but if the cold is getting shoved out of the way does that mean a Snow to Rain event incoming at some point ?

to be honest FI starts at 72 hrs as the models have been flipping all over the place - it did seem the last time i checked in friday that the breakdown had moved away from a battle ground event to a wimp but this may change again - ECM did have a day 9 event for us in SE but thats very very much JFF

 

one thing i guess the snow we are getting is powder snow ? as the dew points are so low hence the icing cake effect here in London?

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

yes so far only icing for majority of london . North and south , was disappointing as i thought london was in with a chance of 2 or 3 cm initially rather than a bust but hey ho thats part of a snow chase its not confirmed til it happens

 

great photos from around the region , love seeing those and glad some on here managed to break their drought

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Strong signs a thames streamer will setup some time this evening from the models which carries through to early morning.

I don't think its going to get too intense based on the models but thre models often underestimate streamer effects, especially for SE London, N.Kent and S.Essex.

I was not convinced yesterday it would even make it as far as myself as I'm really right at the end of the track usually, but the models are little more aggressive on that front so we will see.

bit of head scratchy as the condition do seem ok for a bit more meat to this but as you say models not showing that currently nor Meto

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

@Paul Sherman think we broke your 2009 record for the most hours of polythene balls type snow - such a bizzare phenomenon - but we had 10 hours non stop

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

20 minutes ago, Great Plum said:

I remember that - such a damp squib!

Ah I was moving that day from Beckenham to Sutton . Actually woke up to several inches in beckenham worried about the removal men not getting up the road. Was all gone by lunchtime .

 

That February 2005 easterly caused many disagreements on here with its “ its a cold easterly “

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Back to snizzle again here

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, yamkin said:

More snow to come in the UK's SE sector according to the Dutch Radar

Thanks Yamkin

 

to be honest us in this part of the world probably do better than front moving away and allowing Thames streamer setting up as so far it’s been pants 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

The heaviest it’s been all morning but just grass and tree the snow is sticking too.

 

not expecting more fun and games . Have to wait what showers develop tonight hopefully we still in a chance of a Thames streamer setting up @kold weather ??