southbank

Looking at the 12z / faxes looks like unfortunate timings with the cold front moving south and the Atlantic low moving in keeps the low on a south of the uk track - just bad luck really. off topic - it’s been a fascinating chase - although feels like it’s been going on for weeks but a thank you to all the inputs on both sides of the coin - looks like very much model fatigue setting in and just bad luck the pieces not there to give icing on the cake with a noteworthy snow event. time to take a break and come back for anything in Feb that may be of interest

If those fronts could only straddle the M4. Corridor that really would be a news worthy event - as it stands looks like northern France / Normandy into Belgium are in line for a pasting as the moisture on the front boundaries will be where the action will be - looks like the cold front sweeping south has little moisture on it and it keeps the Atlantic low from encroaching on our neck of the woods - typical heads you lose tails you lose for UK - talk about bad timing - but the margins are small a 50/100 miles shift north and south coast may be back in play where in the grand scheme of micro scheme is tiny

Apologies for my ignorance - is the Ec46 updated daily or weekly . Just seems reading the updates people kindly put on here it flips about all over the place - specially wk 3/4 . Is it renown for being a good indicator over a ; week period ?

Don’t think we have had an event like the one forecast the next few days . As much I would like there to be a reasonable covering (12z ECM ) it does look more likely going by Meto that it be wet non settling snow we see in london area - we won’t know until we start getting reports as the low passes thru

Couldn’t agree more Crewe - been on here long enough that usually one would say mild would be default back - but what’s so intriguing is the NH profile and just how different it is at the start of this winter then I can remember post 2010 . 62/63 famous winter was largely driven by + PNA wonder if the same is driving this

4 days of snow cover ( paths / roads mostly clear) shows what a HLB around Greenland does for UK winter Synoptics . In 50 years I can prob count only 5-7 occasions I’ve seen snow stick around this long in london last time 2010 . So gonna make the most of a glorious winter scene - it’s sensational today in the cold sun

Very Christmassy early “ attempt” at a commute -alas no thameslink so wfh

Did we all learn nothing from last year ? Enfact the last 18 + years (2012)FI always starts at 72 + anything more at winter leads to toys = prams= out