M1245
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Posts posted by M1245
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How are the latest models looking regarding snowfall this weekend?
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UKMO is simpy stunning tonight. Big bank at T96, if only it was reliable at that stage like the models usually are!
That is a very cold feed of fairly stong SE winds, not sure if the seatrack is too long to warm it up or short enough to allow awesome convection.
This would also place us in a very cold pool of air before the attack at T120, epic amounts of snow Sunday from that I would think.
ECM now supporting a wee bit better, reminds me of the GFS gradual move to the euro's a few days ago, high not quite so stong so a bit less cold air but another step in the right direction.
Big hats off to UKMO if this is right as the model has stuck to it like glue, even beyond the human experts override on last nights FAX.
Where abouts would be hardest hit if this was to materialise?
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JUST IN!! BBC weather going for UKMO, brilliant stuff
was just posted in the model thread
What does this mean?
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If the latest gfs charts are to believed then it looks like a snow event for many on Saturday. Still a long way away but it looks good.
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Ok, I think we can all agree that this weekend really didn't go to plan, for a number of reasons:
1) The initial easterly for Saturday was shunted too far south and east, so that the coldest air didn't get here and we were instead left in a chilly but not very snowy southeasterly
2) The front passed through earlier than expected, meaning that, instead of the frosty (or snowy on the east coast) evening that would have brought in the surface cold we instead had a slight clearing before cloud cover arrived early in the evening, when temperatures for most were still above 0C.
3) Where the cold air was entrenched at the surface, around Inverness-shire, a warm sector appeared turning the initial precipitation to icy rain:
4) The upper cold pool overnight is a degree or two less cold than was initially thought:
Basically, from the time it reached the mesoscale models on Friday to now everything that could have gone wrong did go wrong, and we were left with snowfall that, while decent enough on the high ground, barely lay at all for the lowlands, and with a front tomorrow that is now likely to be rain for most (although there may be just enough cold left for an area from Perth to Aberdeen along with higher ground north of the central belt).
However, tomorrow night is very definitely salvageable, and into Tuesday and Wednesday there is still some promise. I will await the 18Zs before detailing the promise here but what we do not want to see is any southward or eastward movement in the pattern whatsoever in the next 24 hours of runs. If things back further west there is a very strong possibility of a big dumping for the eastern half of the country from tomorrow night through to Wednesday and even into central and western areas at times, but there is a higher than average margin of error here given this is potentially 24 hours away. After that, remaining cold probably, but just how cold and snowy remains to be seen.
I should add that tomorrow through the day is even potentially salvageable given the fickle nature of the mesoscale models at the moment!
Excellent analysis as ever. I'm sure many people in here await your thoughts on the 18z.
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The models don't know what's going on so it might be a bit of a wait for you OTR
One minute they show a hefty snowfall, the next it's sleet at best. It's almost at the point of reading reports on here, watching the radar and flicking the curtains for a wee shuftie at the lampper out the window Edit: Big blob of precip blossoming up to my west and heading here in the next twenty minutes, superb
Any idea if anything will fall over fife? Rain, snow, nothing?
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Completely agree, one minute it is said we are in the freezer then the next minute the Atlantic has suddenly pushed eh cold all the way back-confusing.
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UKMO at T=72 would be awesome up here as well
What's it showing?
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Many on the model thread saying that ukmo at 144 is a snowstorm. Anyone on here agree?
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Yes, the NAE has this too, it's just a case of whether the front occludes before reaching the east coast or not. If it does, then we should keep uppers around -5C for the entire time and keep the band just about as snow:
The lack of wind will probably help also as the milder air won't get mixed in so readily. Could easily go the other way though, or in fact if the front occludes faster then we could have an all snow event for central and inland western parts too.
Those charts clearly show snow over the fife area while BBC forecasts say sleet? Confused.
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From the latest gfs chart, the east coast seems to get sleet while the heavy snow stays inland.
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Unless you live at the far SW of Scotland, or is VERY VERY unlucky, you will see snow on Monday.
Here is the NMM snapshot for the first band tomorrow evening, this for 1600:
And then the NMM snapshot for rush hour Monday:
Now these are two in the space of 12 hours- note:
The first one has rapidly warming upper air temps- a large snow to rain event.. unless you have serious height (150m+) or the band progresses very quickly, the snow accu would generally be over the southern uplands, the grampians and the fife hills + off course the highlands
The second one is rapidly cooling - the mild sector diminishes quickly and cold upper air from the NW moves in.. this should begin as rain for those below 300m, then becoming 200m, then possibly 100m.. the snow should fall for most in the SE of Scotland or the high ground in central parts- Kelso the hot spot for me
Snow should be transient however- but in the afternoon, it will be a east-west split, don't be surprised about heavy snow in Edinburgh and heavy rain in Glasgow..
With these charts, what is the likeliness of snow in Fife over the weekend and into Monday/Tuesday?
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The precipitation charts still seem to have some pretty heavy snow over the fife area tomorrow and then into Monday but the BBC have downgraded the amount expected.
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Aha - tres bien!!!!
hmmmmm
Looking promising for early next week!
Would the fife area see some snow from these outputs?
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just posted on twitter
Tim's Weather blogâ€@timbland36
MOGREPS ensembles for 18th have 17/23 with a high to the north or east, 1/23 to the west, 2/23 with a UK high, and only 3/23 has westerlies
The majority with a high to the north or east then, that good for cold and snow?
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Still looking good for snow early next week?
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cut off scandi high coming and artic high pushing for greenland
Good sign?
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Looks like a slight upgrade for Snow potential in Eastern areas. The snow seems to reach those areas at least for a time before clearing SE.
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After the 12Z NAE I'll be getting the paint out again and doing a summary for Saturday (and perhaps an initial one for Sunday). Sunday into Monday remains tricky, and I'm still a bit wary about the whereabouts of the warm sector, but if the pattern is backed west by the 12Zs then everything will start to look rosier. Ideally for us the front will move a bit more slowly also and prolong the snowfall. Snow showers are likely to continue into Sunday morning for eastern areas though, so we could have a decent covering to start us off. I don't see tonight having much chance of being snowfall widely unfortunately, everything just looks a touch too high away from higher ground. -6C uppers I think are a bare minimum for lowland snow inland off this, -7C better and -8C does the trick for most, especially once the winds back east tomorrow afternoon. MO warning for tomorrow still stands, along with a giant one for frontal snowfall on Sunday into Monday, and after that, well most likely remaining cold with the threat of further snowfalls.
What's your opinion on how far east the snowfall from Sunday into Monday will go? It wasn't looking like it was going to reach the far east but the MO have issued basically a nationwide warning. Highlights uncertainty i guess.
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I thought the east would be the worst hit with the cold air above but the snow seems to sink south before reaching the far east. Many parts of England will see a lot of snow from the current model outputs.
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I'm with you on that - I can't read most of the charts, but the Precipitation type charts have gradually moved the snow out of Scotland in the last wee while, and it looks like Englandshire will get a pasting but we'll not really get any - it certainly shows no sign of any heavy snow in Eastern Scotland like the warnings have said about... ???
Completely agree although one thing to remember is that the MO are editing some of these charts and therefore the positioning of the precipitation may change. Hopefully.
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To me, after looking at the latest precipitation charts, it's looking like their won't be much snow for the east coast of Scotland as the snow always seems to sink south before really reaching the far east. Anyone agree or is this wrong?
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Would the East of Scotland see snow from these model outputs?
One minute they show a hefty snowfall, the next it's sleet at best. It's almost at the point of reading reports on here, watching the radar and flicking the curtains for a wee shuftie at the lampper out the window 
Scotland Regional Discussion - January 14th 2013>
in Regional
Posted
A few posts on the MT sating that east Scotland will miss out on the snow this weekend.