Jimmy0127
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Posts posted by Jimmy0127
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Apologies if this has been asked earlier in the thread, but does anyone know where to access an archive of charts (eg T500hpa+SLP)? Would be interesting to compare and contrast.
Netweather's and Meteociel's GFS feeds seem to have been broken for a while. Thanks.
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At risk of looking silly minutes before 18z, possibly a southward trend for that Western European low for +7 days?
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All will be well.
Full on NW onslaught this evening and perhaps some flakes for the lucky!!
These are promising times...
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Aside from general heatwave chat, I'm quite intrigued by the handling of the wee Iberian/Biscay trough.
What a privilege it is to be able to question NWP handling of such a complex event this far out! Day 7+??!
Ensembles suggest huge divergence regarding phasing/timing of that cheeky Biscay/Iberian trough.
I'm a meteorological ignoramus but never tire of the content on here.
EDIT: forgot to ask my question!
In this scenario would you wait for ensemble convergence or is there a better way?
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4 minutes ago, wellington boot said:
The NW radar definitely doesn't show any southerly movement. Wonder if it's an optical illusion as some energy shifts south and the colours shift accordingly...?
It does as Steve says I think - individual showers moving WNW but the convective showers are happening increasingly further SW. Below radar images at 9:50 and 8:50
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Couldn't resist posting that the great Dan Corbett gratefully acknowledged from NZ his #2 spot on our Top Ten Greatest TV Weather Forecasters!
If you're keen to know who's #1, listen to our podcast below! (and on iTunes)
http://weathercocks.buzzsprout.com/
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Disappointed NW members like myself might need some light relief from model-watching at the moment. As such I just wanted to shamelessly plug our Podcast's Winter Special.
Aside from generous Christmas treats, we look at:
- The winter of 1946/47 (its impact on a battered post-war Britain are rather humbling even to the most ardent coldie)
- Air turbulence in flight - types and causes
- Weather on Venus, comparison and contrast with Earth(!)
- Blockbusters-themed Weather Quiz.
Search for Weathercocks on iTunes or it's also hosted below:
https://www.buzzsprout.com/65644/452447-weathercocks-christmas-special
All I want for Christmas is SNOW!
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I've written a Christmas song. There is no association with Mariah's song.
I don't want a frost for Christmas
Yes the ground can often freeze
I'm not into double figures
Don't give me south-westerlies
All I want is a split flow
Scandi high and Euro Low
Can it be just so?
All I want for Christmas is...-
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I don't want a frost for Christmas
Yes the ground can often freeze
I'm not into double figures
Even less south-westerlies
All I want is a split flow
Scandi high and Euro Low
Can it be just so?
All I want for Christmas is...-
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I hope this isn't deemed off topic, but wanted to take the opportunity to share the Winter Special episode of a podcast I created with another NW member. (Which includes model discussion
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It's called Weathercocks, and the three of us take a lighthearted and hopefully informative look at all things weather.
This week we talk on the storm of '87, White Christmases in the UK and a discussion of recent output, and the physical omens for the coming winter.
There's also a weather-themed quiz "Just Teleconnections", which is in no way at all a clone of Only Connect
It's available at: http://weathercocks.buzzsprout.com/ and on iTunes.
Please listen and let me know your thoughts! Thanks.
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Hope the mods don't mind my using this forum to promote a new weather based podcast.
Started by myself and a friend, another NW member, we hope to provide an informative and entertaining discussion of all things weather.
It's called Weathercocks, and you can find it at the link below and on iTunes
http://www.buzzsprout.com/65644
In the first episode we discuss the current weather, the nature of the Shipping forecast as well as the life of the pioneer of meteorology Robert Fitzroy. We also attempt to devise our own, Country and Western-themed rainfall classification system.
We hope that somebody out there finds this enjoyable - episode two will be available next week.
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Is it possible to have a purely evidence based discussion on a science where a consensus has never successfully predicted an effect from its cause? It suggests that either causality in the field is not well understood, or that more onus should be placed on the consensus of evidence than individual studies. But the latter approach would contradict the scientific process. I thought the idea was that you make a prediction based on a theory, test it as well as possible, and if said prediction comes to fruition wait for someone to disprove the theory.It's only science if you can use the theory to predict observations. I haven't read any verified predictions of any use when it comes to climate science, and so I don't see how you can have a purely "evidence based" discussion on man made climate change. Give it 200 years.
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Latest GFS op reverts to retrogression of the heights to Greenland, somewhat akin to ECM. Only one run, but given recent output, my money's on a trough to the East by next weekend. Nonetheless, summer is demonstrably here - bring us some heat!!!
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GFS 18Z op seems to go with 12Z ensembles with a weak trough affecting the East at the weekend followed by resumption of heights up to day7/8 at least.
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ECM ensemble mean spread seems to show clustering regarding the leading edge of the mid-Atlantic trough at T144-168.
So a number of solutions have a more negative tilt to the trough, which can only be a good thing presumably?
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Dame Julia Slingo said the variable UK climate meant there was "no definitive answer" to what caused the storms. "But all the evidence suggests there is a link to climate change," she added.
Let's examine this statement:
1. There's "no definitive answer" (except "ALL the evidence").
2. "There is a link" - implies causation without actually saying it. By definition there is always a link between weather and climate.
3. "Climate change" actually doesn't mean anything per se. It has a perceived meaning, but it is a relative term (100yrs? 10000yrs? etc etc).
This seemingly simple statement translates to the layman as: "Weather is unpredictable and always has been. The recent stormy weather though is caused by human activity. All of the science says so."
I doubt she meant the latter. But it's pretty poor from a highly qualified meteorologist/climatologist, whose lucrative (150k) job is partly to communicate the technical understanding of these things to policy-makers and the electorate.
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I thought I'd condense the BBC article linking the recent weather to global warming. All I've done is put the headline and all of the expert's quotes.
Met Office: Evidence 'suggests climate change link to storms'
Dame Julia Slingo said the variable UK climate meant there was "no definitive answer" to what caused the storms. "But all the evidence suggests there is a link to climate change," she added.
"There is no evidence to counter the basic premise that a warmer world will lead to more intense daily and hourly rain events.
"We have records going back to 1766 and we have nothing like this," she said. "We have seen some exceptional weather. We can't say it is unprecedented but it is exceptional."
"The attribution of these changes to anthropogenic global warming requires climate models of sufficient resolution to capture storms and their associated rainfall."
Such models are now becoming available and should be deployed as soon as possible to provide a solid evidence base for future investments in flood and coastal defences."
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It is quite concerning they are indoctrinating if not scaring school children by effectively presenting the failed theory as a done deal..
Everyone else in class will sit with mouth open when GW's daughter gives them a lecture about misleading deniers and Arctic Amplification.
I'd be careful making inferences about what Ms Wolf's presentation concludes.
The fact that the second author can't conceive any positive consequence from his conjecture though reflects worse on the study.
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Hi guys!
My Daughter has a Geography assessment on Friday titled "Me,Climate Change and the Future". There are a number of paragraphs that i am helping her construct but I'm stuck on the one that looks for 'positive aspects of climate change?
Any sensible ideas on what good can come from Climate change ( and not the "CO2 is plant food" kinda crock!)?
Ta!
Ian.
More rain in the desert and less ice at the pole sounds pretty good.
Climate change is quite vague though, so it depends.
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It remains the overriding concern and focus for UKMO. Yes, there are folk at Exeter equally beguiled by snowy set-ups (who isn't) but the real meteorological interest this winter is, and remains, the rain. It's been utterly fascinating for those of us not risking cardiac failure over snowflake failure. However next week could indeed offer snow based on low track, entrainment of colder air from E; diurnal phasing and evaporative cooling effect. All those beyond current model scope and likes of GFS PPN type at that range are just a toy. Ignore.
Hi Ian, any further thoughts from you or your colleagues on the track of that low? Looks potentially troublesome regardless of PPN type?
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We could really do with Fergies input here im getting mixed messages!
I'm imagining that, given the timeframe and the spread of the ensemble output (that I've seen at least), Ian's input would have to be a mixed message anyway at the moment.
Especially given the amount of scrutiny we put his words under on this forum!
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Ahh, so suddenly the GFS seems to be everyones best mate this evening... I wonder why lol.What a difference a day makes!
I'm not sure Steve should even be allowed to enjoy a single GEFS perturbation, given his rhetoric?
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Yes, very much what I have been thinking and I continue to stand to the side of the more popular belief expressed and supported on here and think that the best possibilities for the cold backing west over our shores lie later than the time periods under consideration (and hope) on this thread. The 'cleaner' disruptive options are too far away to have confidence in based on the residual energy budget over the polar field (Canadian side) that is likely to be subject to 'slow kill' over the next two/three weeks or so
If you have the time and inclination, is there any way you could simplify your last sentence for a newbie?
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UKMO seems to be rolling out on Meteociel now...
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Storm Eunice - 18th February
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
I'd put a red blob over most of SW England and all of Wales.