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MarkM

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    Met Office loses BBC contract

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, 4caster said:

    It is impossible in scattered showery situations (as over the North Sea today) to have any confidence in the forecast FOR A PARTICULAR PLACE for more than an hour or two ahead. One can predict the MOVEMENT of showers, but it's usually impossible to predict when and where each shower will decay, and when and where new ones will pop up (which is what they do, literally!).

    I agree but my point is in that case the chance of showers should not be indicated as 0% , more like 50% , if I know there is a chance then while I accept that it could mean no rain at all there is also a decent chance I will , at which stage I will make any preparations I need. To go from " it's not going to rain today" to "rain expected in the next 30 minutes" within a couple of hours is just poor. 

    Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion

    in Regional

    Posted

    29 minutes ago, snow*please said:

    Im just preparing for diddly squat all this week, then i wont be disappointed and could end up being pleasantly surprised. 

    But i will be staying out the cold hunt thread all week because i dont want the southerners snow rubbing in my face  

    I hope it p*****s it down after any snow they get  (sorry, snow brings out my inner child lol) 

    Be gentle with them , they may get snow this time for a short while but they have to live down south ALL of the time , it's us that gets the better deal  

    • Like 1

    Met Office loses BBC contract

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, 4caster said:

    I sympathise. For example the BBC forecast for Hull presently gives a 58% probability of rain at 1300 today. That's only 35 minutes from now, yet a glance at the radar tells me that the showers are all over the North Sea and coastal extremities like Flamborough Head and Cleethorpes. I prefer the Met Office site for short term forecasts: https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/map/gcrzgymcy#?map=CloudAndRain&zoom=7

     

    I appreciate the difficulties of the forecasters , I am not expecting 100% accuracy ten days in advance , I know that is unrealistic but you cannot go from 0% to 80% within a few hours , something is wrong there and for those like me for whom an accurate short range forecast is important that is enough for me to move away from the BBC , I now use the WeatherQuest radar to see where stuff is and am trying to get into the habit of using the metoffice for the 0-48 hrs info. Your post above is a perfect example of what I mean. 

    Met Office loses BBC contract

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    A bit of background , I work as a cricket groundsman in North Lincs , as a result I keep more than a close eye on the forecasts , generally within 7 days max but critical is the next 24/48 hours especially with regards to applying chemicals or leaving the covers on , since the change and especially in 2018 I have been let down more times than I count. Typically I can be at the ground around lunchtime , check the forecast and it says dry so I leave the covers off and go home , within a few hours it starts to cloud over , I recheck the forecast and it's now saying 80% chance of rain , at short notice ( within 12 hours ) to go from 0 to 80% chance of rain seems unacceptable  , I'm now trying to change years of habit of trusting the BBC forecasts above all others because since they changed the contract my practical experience is that the accuracy has declined. 

    • Like 2

    Yorkshire & E England Regional Weather Discussion

    in Regional

    Posted

    Managed to get a bit of work done on my cricket ground before this weekend , got the square spiked to assist with drainage before the snow arrives , a quick cut at 20mm and managed to get a winter feed on , now I can hide away in the greenhouse getting the baskets and pots sorted with bedding plants instead of freezing my butt off outside. 

     

    IMG_0282.jpeg

    • Like 1

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    So far we seemed to have dodged all the snow apart from Dec 1st around here ( North Lincs ) but it looks like I'm directly in the firing line , couple of miles from the Humber/Trent/Ouse confluence. Normally I'd be starting ground prep work next week for my local cricket club but I suspect it may get delayed a few weeks , but on the other hand my sideline of video / aerial / photo images and prints might get lucky , severe weather can produce fantastic opportunities. . 

    IMG_7355_HDR_edit.jpg

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Somehow I'm still not believing this is actually going to happen after being let down so many times , but even so I've prepped the Range Rover today , rescue kit in the boot , charged up batteries etc etc. My only regret is that those fools that write in the express and mail will claim they forecasted it all along. 

    • Like 1
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