atrow
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Posts posted by atrow
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Another GooFuS run and surprisingly still bullish, the one thing that has amazed me is the confident nature of the Tv Forecasts, I really thought they would have shown at least some marginality into their forecasts and some mild form of wrist slashing would be ongoing in here by now.
I really feel people further west than the coasts should do very well, the Jackpot zone could be areas around Thurrock, NW Kent and Ashford, Canterbury, that sort of zone through the middle of the expected heavier precip. If you are around the coasts or at least within 5 miles I would still be very concerned that the 7mm of expected precip does not come down as a wintry mix of ice pellets and graupel.
History shows that these events with any fetch of not overly cold dewpoints and certainly not impressive Uppers can easily turn the way of the pear, what can start as snow can easily turn to sleet very quickly. What will be great tomorrow is the size and wetness of the flakes of snow should the evaporative cooling drag down to the surface, but as everyone know huge plate sized flakes means you are treading a tightrope with the "M" Word.
I think the only saving grace could be the Met have seen a different set of data we have not seen yet and this is why they are incredibly bullish about this event.
Good Luck everyone and its only the weather!
hi paul do you think st.albans herts will see the heavy snow? i now i should be in the home counties and east anglia thread but im kinda in the middle. thanks
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is tommorow front expected to hit me
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so hows sunday looking to the people in the now?? will it get to herts
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ell its pretty much stopped here .is that it for the day/night
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Nothing more than snizzle here, the settlement of which can just about be made out where there are wind obstructions - i.e. there is very little.
This doesn't surprise me though, as the NMM model just doesn't show a major snowfall for a lot of us for the start of this weekend and it hasn't done at all, while it's been in range. I'd love it to be incorrect, don't get me wrong. That's not to say it's not too late for us to get a reasonable snowfall before tomorrow morning, but it's unlikely to be too memorable imho.
I'll also await the update in a couple of hours with interest, to see what it shows for Sunday morning.
yes I'm looking forward to that as well got a good amount today but be great if I got more tomorrow
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If the precipitation is moving North-East like it is, it gets effected by the chilterns and intensifies and drifts across to Bedfordshire/Hertfordshire, also if it's moving from South to North, the urban heat island effect from London peps up the intensity across this location...other than that, my location is pants for snow most of the time.
so are you saying it might intensify for me? sorry for the questions still learning
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I was wondering from the radar if it had started to rotate anti-clockwise - may be wishful thinking but if it does the back of the band may be what we see to the South rather than the west...
so I'm guessing that's good for us lol. doesn't show any signs of stopping at mo
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hey anyone near me in st.albans/hatfield .people keep saying its dying but its still going strong here and met of say its guna get heavier at 3ish. whats everyone think
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That snow in France WOW !
On Sunday things could be seriously snowy with depths reaching 20-30cm
where do you think
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I now I'm in herts st.albans but I'm so close to London I go between here and home counties and EA. when people say the front will pivot is that good for me .don't really understand.thanks :-)
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Your spot on although the details need firming up on snow does look like at this stage
Into Monday and its slowly moving north
thought so but still learning.thanks for your reply. would i be wrong to say it wouldnt change too much as its not far away (sunday_
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30 p flakes
is the heavier snow forecast to reach me? seems like its almost stopped
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looking at the gfs prec the south east, east anglia,london and home counties are in for a lot of snow sunday. am i wrong??
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haha knew it lol
netweather radar for ppn,but pay a few quid a month for ppn type radar and other gizmos
is it worth it
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so what radar does everyone use here
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Slight issue for us in Herts is , those Western side may be quite well place. For East Herts, the real heaviest of snow rate, never quite makes it to this location at least from NAE and GFS, or at least not for the same length of time.
The key might be if the PPN is a little further advanced than the 06z model which in that case if it is, then about 12 onwards should see a heavier rate of snow falling for a time.
ok thanks well I'm sorta in middle of herts (Hatfield) will just have to wait and see
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so when is the main snow ment to hit herts? still pretty light here
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what radar do people recommend? snowing here in hatfield its small snow but getting heavier
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what radar do people recommend today
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we'll looking at BBC weather I'm JUST about on the amber warning zone .awesome!!
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The "best" part for snow is South Wales. Although perhaps people will be wishing it wasn't the best, when they get 30+ cm of snow tomorrow and blizzard conditions. Lots of people are going to be left stranded in cars, and temperatures at night going into the weekend & next week with lying snow could approach -15 -> -20 the way things are forecasted, especially in the higher areas.
For much of our area/region, the further south and west you are in it, the better. Most favoured I'd say are south bucks & south/west herts. Think High Wycombe, Beaconsfield, Gerrards Cross, etc... I'd expect Berkshire to do very well indeed, but not covered by this thread.
For me in Aylesbury, I'm expecting somewhere in the region of 4-10cm given the current charts by the end of Saturday, what actually happens will be mostly down to how fast the front moves across the country. For us, we want it to move slightly faster than progged.
well im hoping thats me in st.albans im south and slighty west herts
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as a lot on here I'm very confused I'm obviously alot more west than east Anglia (herts) some are saying we'll get a good amount others saying it won't make it. also BBC show it not making us on video bit if I go on 5 forecast it says snow for 24 hours
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I just posted, in one post, a positive and a negative spin. Essentially, it depends on where you are looking as to how favoured your area will be.
To give an example for where I am from two very short range models - the NAE suggests 5cm up to midday Friday with the main area of snow still to come, the WRF suggests only 1cm by that point and, even by the end of the front giving us less than 5cm because the front decays. The varying totals for your area are very similar for that time frame.
Generally, the met office have issued an amber warning where they are sure of the reach of the snow, it's yellow where it could be disruptive or a non event.
thanks for your reply seems a very confusing time even for the experts.we'll just have to wait and see
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hi I'm a real newbie and trying to look and understand the models .looking at them I can see a lot of snow for me Friday (Hertfordshire) but then I hear that by the time the low gets to me it will have fizzled out. am I reading the charts wrong??
London & South East Regional Discussion - January 19th 2013>
in Regional
Posted
is it looking like ill be too far west lots of different opinions on here, some saying the 12z will take it more west and others saying it will go east. whats the most probable in this situation??