iceman1991
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Posts posted by iceman1991
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surely it would be best peaking now instead of mid december as would probably only last a month then deline again and we would have another month or so of winter leftsolar cycle shot threw the roof at worst time possible can see winter be average with above average temps possibly similar to last year!.
vortex could well get the energy to be pretty strong though the next 4 to 6 weeks along with a strong jet stream at this point I punt for a 2014/15 winter although we do have a el nino so still a possibility of something note worthy and wintry but 70% at this point that it will be similar to last year.
cant wait for solar cycle to decline and tank to 0.
although last year midlands north didnt do to bad.
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Looks like roger j smith going for very cold and blocked pattern end jan through to feb for snow central and southern england maybe indicating a easterly but mild first half to winter in the seasonal thread if you guys wanna have read very interesting indeed hes been preety spot on for his predictions.
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Gavsweathervids has just done a video on the 6 months cfs update absolute horror show for this winter if your a coldie
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jamstec last year predicted colder than average last winter when that didnt happen preety sure it did the year before that aswellSo gently steering back to discussion of winter 2015/16. I'd take one proper snow fall of several inches that lasts on the ground for a few days, enough so I can get out with my kids and build a snowman.I love cold weather but my concern is always the fact this country is useless at dealing with it and I hate the constant moaning from people who seem surprised winter exists every year.Also can anyone tell me what accuracy rates the long range forecasting tools like JAMSTEC have? Is there one that is the best?
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5th month in a row Jamstec is going for below average surface air temp anomaly this winter away from the UK and the Scandi regions all of mainland Europe has above average surface air temp anomaly
Precipitation looks average for most of England and Wales but below average for NW Scotland, Northern Ireland and ROI
Didnt jamstec get it terribly wrong last year and year before
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Solar minimum to cause 3years of cold winters Should our current solar cycle continue to follow the same course as Solar Cycle 12, then we may have an indicator for the upcoming 3 winters. Using the winters of solar Cycle 12, we see that the next three winters correspond to the winters of 1885/86, 1886/87, 1887/88 (marked yellow in the above chart). They were all colder than normal, which tells us that this coming 2015/16 winter and the 2 winters to follow are also likely to turn out to be colder than normal,http://wchildblog.com/2015/10/15/solar-analysis-shows-that-coming-3-uk-winters-poised-to-be-cold-ones-strong-similarity-to-sc-12/
Yes very true gavinweathervids has got a video on this very interesting indeed I think only one winter out other cycle has been diffrent but all the rest have been correct so far so hopefly the success rate will carry on time will tell
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Yeah, saw a 5 minute flurry last winter. Definitely not what I'd call exciting from a "coldie" perspective
I didnt even see that dan haha never really experienced I proper cold winter with lots of snow but I really hope we get one soon its about time we did aint it guys
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If i were a coldie, I'd be reasonably satisfied with an average winter. An average winter in the UK is characterised by mixed mild and cold spells - a bit like 2000-01 and last winter, which had some decent cold spells despite the marginality for snow.
Hmm problem for me is im down in the south of england even when we have a cold winter we are lucky to even have marginal snow. I guess its best to live up in the north for decent snow events
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What peoples opinions on acuweathers winter forcast for England (seasonal) from looking at last few previous predictions on winters theyve been preety spot on. Really dont want an average winter very boring how have they been accurate wise for the rest of Europe on previous forcast for winter
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Im going for a cold, dry and snowless winter with some rain thrown in. But id still give this swan a chance on their seasonal prediction, since them so called weather "experts" cant get their seasonal outlooks right so maybe the swan can do better.
I agree but maybe few snow days chucked in there hopefly mr swan gets it right iv just got the feeling it could be a cold winter this year last time I had that was back in 09/10 but it might just be me will have to wait and see
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Very interesting arctical here guys checked back to the last time the birds come very early in 1980 the winter that followed that was very cold and snowy I think natures alot more accurate than computer models will just have to wait and see.
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This winter has really turned to be terrible once again evreyone hypeing up snow pontetial the completely blows away to nothing think im gunna move to canda least they get decent snow most of the winter
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very heavey mate alot better than fridayWhat are people reporting from Salisbury, that looks like a heavy band of precipitation there!
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Layong on cars and pavements this is alot heaveir than fri alot bogger flakes to
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Really coming down heavy now
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Can tell me on here if nw hants mite get some snow tormorrow ??
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Great looks like it will be to far west for hampshire tormorrow
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where did you get that from mate or did you just made it up urself lol ???There is increasing confidence that an area of low pressure will bring its attendant weather fronts in across the South West during the course of Tuesday bringing another period of potentially significant snowfall to parts of South West and Southern England.
We have issued a % probability of disruption due to snowfall on Tuesday with the most emphasis placed on areas immediately around and South of the M4 corridor with some areas to the North of the M4 also included. Main counties of concern for the risk of 5-10cm or perhaps more are currently North Somerset, North Dorset, Bristol, Gloucestershire, Wilts and Hampshire.
There remains some uncertainty on snow totals and the extent of the snowfall to the South and close to coastal areas, it's likely that precipitation will fall as rain and sleet initially across Devon, South Somerset, South Dorset and Coastal Hampshire, but as the cold air undercuts later it's likely to turn increasingly to snow - giving accumulations.
The main snow line is generally in line with the M4 corridor with strongest and most persistent signals for severe disruption around the Forest of Dean, Bristol, Bath and Central/Southern Wilts into North Somerset and North Dorset.
The Northern extent of the band could also be extended and progression East across the South Coast to affect West and East Sussex also remains a possibility.
We'll have further updates through the course of today and tomorrow.
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That makes a change
where did you get that from lol ?
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whats it showing mate ??Looking at the latest radar looks like bulk of the snow will miss the IOW although just seen bbc24 news and things look interesting for south tomorrow morning.
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3 words... Its the BBC........ Changes all time... but if meto think their could be snow.. their a hell of a lot more reliable than the outdated graphics
hope your right
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So i take it Tuesday is the next event then? meto have me for snow on Tuesday . http://www.metoffice...Time=1358726400
na propz will just be rain just saw latest on news 24 and rain all over us apart from up north
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looks like its going to be raining tuesdays oh well bring on next winter its will be pointless with snow in feb because as soon as the sun comes out it will just melt the snow because it will be to strong
Winter 2015/16
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
It will show mild tomorrow