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iceman1991

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    Meto Uk Further Outlook

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    37 minutes ago, Don said:

    But up until now, they haven't mentioned the chance of particularly cold conditions.  However, I agree it's a bit of a downgrade in the mid term.

    They did said wintry hazards mid term now they’ve backed tracked away from it it’s ok always time for upgrades for mid term will see 

    Meto Uk Further Outlook

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Wednesday 6 Jan - Friday 15 Jan

    Scattered showers will feed across eastern parts of the UK during Wednesday with a chance of more prolonged rain and hill snow across the southeast later. Elsewhere it will be mostly fine and cold, although some sleet and snow is likely to reach the far northwest by the end of the day. For the rest of the week and into the weekend conditions are likely to turn more widely unsettled with a mixture of rain, sleet and snow for many parts of the UK. Overnight frosts and icy stretches are also expected with temperatures below average. By the middle of January conditions will probably begin to become a little less cold with the potential for periods of rain and strong winds.

    Friday 15 Jan - Friday 29 Jan

    During the middle of January unsettled conditions are likely to affect southern and central parts of the UK with drier weather expected for the north and west. Whilst generally remaining colder than average some milder interludes are possible in the south. Toward the end of the month colder conditions become more probable, this bringing an increasing chance of snow.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/

     

    Looks like mid term downgraded to me even more and they’ve pushed cold to the very end which can’t member if  it was last year I think they kept pushing cold to the back all the time and nothing materialised in the end winter was gone sorry don’t mean to be like the grinch want cold and snow much as everyone eles here  really hope I’m wrong 

    • Like 1

    Meto Uk Further Outlook

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    10 minutes ago, chapmanslade said:

    What media ? If you believe the Daily Express or Daily Mail you are always going to be misled.

     

    Not understanding what I’m saying I don’t beleave anything them idiots say but when there’s  a possible snow on the Horizon media sniff then they say snows on way headlines then weather does total opposite that’s what I’m saying 

    Meto Uk Further Outlook

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, iceman1991 said:

    Yep back tracking now baby steps from now  oh well maybe luck next winter 

    This cold spell been crap and think it will just keep carrying on for next couple of  weeks exactly the same.  Always keeps being  far end models show wintry ain’t gunna happend remember this happening pretty sure  last year with mettoffice update espiacally saying same old wintry weather didn’t happend will be the same this year 

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

    A split doesnt happen in 3-4 days time a displacement does. A split isnt modelled until 384 hours after the displacement warming

    Also no ssw warming is occuring right now irs building up to it.

    We officially enter into a ssw on the 5th

    10 day lag is the 15th

    These charts have more to do with the eamt than the strat. Strat effects are kid month

    Nice one thanks for that Scott

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 minutes ago, Mr snowman 2018 said:

    Just to say this is the stratosphere at the moment as you can see it’s in its SSW phase and most models now are pointing something significant wise from around the 9th/10th of January which would be correct as the SSW has around a 10 day lag before its effects are felt in the UK also interesting to note later on in the run the polar vortex splits in 2 which can be very good for us coldies! The charts from now should get more interesting from each passing day a fascinating few days of model watching coming up !

    1112507E-F1C5-46BB-9D97-EBF3C456AD36.png

    So your saying we are having a split now not a warming as some people on here were saying if we have warming could Mess are chances up for cold weather ? 

    Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, Jason M said:

    It’s almost like the presenter has been reading this thread. Nobody should be allowed to post in here until they confirm they have listened to and understood this video. It might save a lot of anguish over the next week or so,

    So Next week not much wintry weather about just very fresh and wet not white seems like will be after next Friday when might be some cold weather

    • Like 2

    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/09/2020 Onward

    in Regional

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, AWD said:

    I was referring to tomorrows possibility which has now all but vanished.  I haven't looked at Thursday yet.

    To be fair to the Met Office, they have a yellow warning out to highlight the uncertainty prior to the 12z data became available.  When looking into the details of the warning below;

    Screenshot_2020-12-29-16-01-53-71.thumb.jpg.59cc185605d443459e40b28a38a5f308.jpg

    they repeatedly say "small chance" & uncertainty.  You never know, these things are hard to predict, the latest data suggests and favours a more southerly track however, keeping the majority of the region dry.

     Thank you AWD Ok know worries shame that. iv noticed they ramped up there short and  longer range update today for cold and snow so hopefully should be some more opportunity round the corner

    Model tweets

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Interesting, very interesting. 

    Ian Fergusson

    @fergieweather

    Replying to 

    @TheSnowDreamer

     

    @MarkyDub

     and 2 others

    ...or just a resigned acceptance that trying to sort varied UKMO cold-style hazard warnings plastered within my TV graphics may become a Groundhog Day affair into the coming weeks...

    6:13 PM · Dec 28, 2020·Twitter for Android

    • Like 2

    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 01/09/2020 Onward

    in Regional

    Posted

    26 minutes ago, offerman said:

    I should have driven to see it as only 20-30 mins away.  Which part of SP was the best for snow ?

    I know Westbury just beyond , or the areas after before  Shrewton ( coming from a36 direction across ) chitterne have tank crossings and assuming that's part of the plains there too? 
    Also 303 runs through the plains as well but there's so many areas I don't know . Which part in general are people thinking of when they speak of SP. Thanks . 

    Hi offerman yes sp fair big old place yes your on about other side  but I’m near shipton  Bellinger  if you heard of that ? which is right on it which is just of the 303  And  we are about 400 meters above  sea level so you find you’ll go to Andover local town here about 6 miles away will be raining there but here will be snowing and lying as higher up which always helps we  do alright here when there’s a snow event Normally hope this helps

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
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