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iceman1991

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Posts posted by iceman1991

    Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    47 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    I have been far from impressed by UKMO but maybe it is starting to smell the coffee. It is abundantly clear we haven't seen early winter potential like this since 2010 how UK surface weather evolves it is less clear but it is going to be cold if very cold on what we typically see.

    693648460_UE144-21(1).thumb.gif.b66e6f7840d1b580054bf4f98a61ab64.gif

     

    I have also published my winter forecast for 2022/23... feel free to check it out, feeling bold this year!

    file.jpg

    pfavico.ico Winter forecast 2022/23: The Winter of Discontent?

    WWW.THESNOWDREAMER.BLOG
    Winter Forecast Headlines: Overall over December, January and February the 3 months of meteorological winter, temperatures are forecast to be colder than average to 1991-2020 long-term average...

     

    Very interesting read Daniel if you don’t mind me asking how did you get on with last winter and the one before ? 

    Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    47 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    The clusters are good news because they’ve swung back away from the west based neg nao problem of the 00z suite. It’s important for the pendulum to swing back rather than go further! 

    I generally feel it in my bones we are about to experience something very exciting for coldies last time I felt like this was back in 2009 feb cold spell  and 2010 sounds good use from the models 🤞 

    • Like 5
    • Thanks 1

    Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    41 minutes ago, legritter said:

    Great posts gang,I'm a lurker and enjoying current outlook .Yes let's get the cold in and perhaps with warm sea temperatures we could see some of the white stuff .Net weather Forums its a 10 from me ,no not 10 day charts ,usual sausage baps and Stella's , take care all cheers 👍. 

     

    You forgot two things to it pint beer and sitting in front of the log burner can’t go wrong with alll that 👍👍

    • Like 4

    Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Mark Smithy said:

    That depends if you think they were ever really on it? UKMO never was, although admittedly only goes out to T140. ECM was never really into it. And the GFS has flirted with it out past T168, and really out past T240, alternating from cold to mild.

    I don't know how often it needs to be said but we really ought to heed this as winter approaches: the second half of every GFS run should NOT ever be treated as gospel. I frankly wish they would stop producing it. If they knew the grief and stresses it causes cold lovers in the UK every winter perhaps they would desist.

    Past T168 is not, ever, to be taken as probable, nor even likely.

    Have a nice day everyone.

    Seen it so many times on here people all get there hopes up then suddenly models start backing away that why don’t get all excited till it’s actually here 

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    19 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Looks that way initially.

    We may have to wait for another push of amplification to tip the scales towards winter proper as the modelling has errantly been suggesting that the vortex would relocate over the Siberian side...the modelling this morning is suggesting the opposite with just a tad too much energy in the jet. 

    Thanks Crewe 👍

    • Thanks 1

    Winter 2022-23 : Forecasts and Discussions

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    32 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    My take on the coming winter has been (since September) that it would be a winter of two halves, the first half offering opportunities for cold via blocking with a weak polar vortex, and a -NAO, the second half - following a coupling between the strat and trop vortexes (and assuming no SSW) - zonal and Atlantic dominated +NAO, therefore mild.

    The November update to GloSea 6 supports that view, as did the October one.  Other seasonal models support it too.  And the current discussions in the MOD about the strength and longevity of the now recently established block also offer the chance of that colder start to winter.  

    Thanks for that Mike appreciate it 👍👍 that’s hope for the cold weather first half 🤞

    • Like 1

    Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    October update

    November to January

    The likelihood of a colder three month period overall is slightly greater than normal.

    There is a reduced chance of wet conditions and impacts from heavy rainfall.

    Chances of dry conditions are greater than normal.

    Stormy conditions, and impacts from high winds, are less likely than normal.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-ndj-v1.pdf
     

    must be confident for this 🤞

    • Like 8

    Met office Contingency planners forecasts

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, BruenSryan said:

    Interesting, and somewhat different contingency planners forecast from the Met for NDJ 2022-23.

    October update

    November to January

    • The likelihood of a colder three month period overall is slightly greater than normal.
    • There is a reduced chance of wet conditions and impacts from heavy rainfall.
    • Chances of dry conditions are greater than normal.
    • Stormy conditions, and impacts from high winds, are less likely than normal.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/binaries/content/assets/metofficegovuk/pdf/business/public-sector/civil-contingency/3moutlook-ndj-v1.pdf

    They must be confident strong signal for that 

    • Like 1

    Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    22 minutes ago, jules216 said:

    My October analogs are once again doing fantastic Job, september was already very good match. For what its worth a very mild winter in making here in Slovakia also wet as the trough from a west based -NAO pumps southerly as east Európe ridge doesnt allow it to clear eastward, i Can already see this being a dominant state of play.

    Could contain:

    What’s that meaning for us in the uk ? 

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