Spah1

oooopppps

Classic situation where the models underplay the strength of the block.

That was before this mornings runs.

I think it’s game over. Wet n windy unless you live in Scotland. Such a massive Greenland block just disappears in a couple of days. Disappointed

BBC Weather - Home WWW.BBC.CO.UK Latest weather conditions and forecasts for the UK and the world. Includes up to 14-days of hourly forecast information, warnings, maps, and the latest editorial analysis and... Not going off the ukmo model

BBC Weather - Home WWW.BBC.CO.UK Latest weather conditions and forecasts for the UK and the world. Includes up to 14-days of hourly forecast information, warnings, maps, and the latest editorial analysis and... shockingly bad update

and just like that GFS moves towards the UKMO. GFS call it correct? Really?

UKMO 72 12z GFS 72 18z GFS blowing up the low and has a more positive tilt. It will be wrong.

Rubbish. GFS will have blown up the low and by T0, it won’t be as round.

Let’s be clear. The UKMO is on board for a cold Xmas day. Until that flips to wet and windy we are in the game. Everyone take a break and wait for the morning runs. The GFS is wrong, the ECM is at the milder end of the ensembles the the UKMO is on board. We are in the game. The biggest disappointment is the erosion of the block that just seems disintegrate and eventually lets in the Atlantic.

Precisely. People over the years have seen Iceland wedges push the low pressure South as we approach T0. This isn’t a small wedge it’s a massive Greenland block, so different.

UKMO is correct. GFS is poor and bows up lows.

144 uppers

eeerr………they generally don’t know what they are talking about and should stick to the moans thread.

Could do with knowing the uppers. Looks messy but snow for some.

I don’t know what to wish for looking at the models. Do we need it to shift south to pull in the cold air or push north bringing the rain far enough north but may not be cold enough???????????????????????????????????????????

I also have no idea what’s going on in the MOD thread. I think I’ll just wait for Chris to tell me what’s going to happen

Not according to Marco

eeerrr no. GFS 06 has less data, not worth looking at.

Well after reading all the mod thread and looking at the charts I just have a headache. No idea what’s going to happen??

To my untrained eye that looks like a whole lot of rain and not a snowflake in site.

I’d take the ECM tonight which seems to pull everything north and leave the South with rain and cold enough for us.

I’m just going to say this now. If we get systems coming in from the SW and bumping into the cold air and they don’t reach us I will be vomiting all over the Xmas table just before the starter arrives.

UKMO 144hrs was a bit of a surprise.

Can’t wait