Derecho

I think it's often interesting to see how well past events are forecast. Remember the storms of June 2012 that produced some large hail and supercells? Here was the forecast for that day during the morning.... So some storms may not be picked up that well, but caution is understandable given the last bust. However I think conditions are more favourable this time round in terms of the SLP pattern, then last time...

Latest Met Office forecast downgrades the storms associated with the trough over the South of the UK but upgrades the storms associated with the cold front coming from the West. Keeps chopping and changing.

I am much more optimistic places will see some good storms tomorrow. Anyone who followed this thread during the last hot spell will have probably noticed that I wasn't convinced there would be a thundery breakdown. Unfortunately that turned out to be true but the met office forecast radar was never bullish. This time however the forecast radar looks very promising indeed. Here are my thoughts on how the day will go: - Storms will begin crossing the channel very early in the morning and hit the South coast around 7ish. These will then intensify and become more organised through the morning esecially as they pass through more inland areas. They will eventually move up to the wash and clear the North Sea. - I then espect some good storms to form over Wales during midday which will then track ENE'wards hitting Northern England. - I'm also anticipating that more storms will form across the channel then forecast as we have a cyclone directly over the UK but we shall see. I think it may pass too early in the day here (Southampton) for the exciting stuff however things could change. Looking forward to the storm reports on this thread.

With the air source coming from the Bay of Biscay I wonder what the chances are of some more thunder and lightning on Thursday evening down here? It looks as though the storms will affect the South early on in the day and move North if the forecasts are anything to go by. I can imagine there will be plenty of storms forming over France throughout the day though.

It does resemble that somewhat though perhaps not to such an extent given temperatures are a bit lower. Should be a good set of storms scattered around though. . Ps I really hope we don't see a repeat of August 2016 as I'm still waiting for a really good storm here in Southampton after being here for 3 years! I slept through a good one during June last year though.

Who needs a plume eh Although CAPE values aren't particularly high, because we have a cyclone parked directly over the UK there is nothing to stop the convection this afternoon. Funnily enough its been sunny and calm here in Southampton (with a lot of high cloud). The storms seem to be forming in a line from East Anglia down to Brighton and into France. I anticipate that I am a bit far West but maybe surprises will come later. The charts at the moment bear some resemblance to the storms that hit us on the eve before the EU referendum last year, could do with a bit more heat in France though. The bonus is that if I do get a good storm I don't have to sit in the uncomfortable heat for it, but as I mentioned I think further east could be the place to be if anything good pops up... we shall see!

The weather Gods havn't been kind to us in recent times have they? Plumes with mega CAPE values but a lack of or no thunderstorms, winters without snow.... perhaps a sacrifice needs to be made to appease them and grant us snowy winters and supercells. Either way this evening's storm watching has turned out to be the meteorological equivalent of watching paint dry. What a letdown

If this does end up being a bust (which is looking increasingly likely), it will be the biggest letdown since the June 2011 plume which produced nothing of note. Despite some occassional flurries of activity nothing organised has come together. It seems that the cap release is the cold front over Scotland which explains why Edinburgh has done well. It isn't over yet this evening but this is another harsh lesson in thunderstorms if nothing happens. Heat and CAPE doesn't equate to big storms. I'm clutching at straws now hoping my forecast for storms I made yesterday doesn't fail, but I'm becoming increasingly resigned. To be honest the CAPE in SW England and Wales produced very little yesterday so that may have been a warning sign. Also hats off to the BBC forecast, it's been pretty good! Although even this had perhaps overestimated storm potential. Sorry if I'm being negative but that is how I see things at this point.

It seems that the only electrical activity at the moment is near the Isle of Man, that is the only thing that has resembled a trough IMO and it seems to be stuck there. The showers around Sheffield may fire up but the best window of opportunity for epic storms is beginning to close, unless more showers form in the west.

As proof you don't always need excessive heat for the storms Edinburgh has had a few big ones just now and it hasn't been an especially warm day there

Yup but that isn't too surprising because CAPE values are much lower there. The trough needs to get a move on though! (if that is the trough...)

Looking at the radar there appears to be a line of precipitation emerging from the Isle of Man to the SE of Ireland, looks as though this could be our trough to set off the storms?

Isolated pockets of very heavy rain to the east of Preston and North of Sheffield look the most likely candidates to turn into storms right now.

It would be interesting to know where exactly the trough and cold fronts are at this point, it's pretty hard to tell from the rainfall radar at the moment!

Latest BBC weather forecast had only an isolated area of storms this evening between Hull and Whitby although the forecaster did say they could be vicous. I suppose this all depends on whether the trough and cold front make it across to these regions in time.

More cells firing up to the North of Stoke, I think this could be happening now after earlier inactivity

Well I mentioned earlier I will anticipate some storms if we start seeing some whites on the meto rainfall radar. They are popping up near Liverpool. Perhaps my reputation as a weather forecaster with my friends can be kept after all

Can that cell over North Wales keep developing?, its throwing out a few lightning strikes, is this the trigger for some storms tonight? Fascinating to watch! It's like watching your football team needing to win to get promoted and it's 0-0 after 70 minutes haha.

Lets hope you are right, my family in Hull keep asking me if anything is popping up but nothing yet! That shower near Stoke looks interesting but I presume the Meto must be keeping an eye on things to the west of Liverpool. Lets wait and see if they explode...

I do get a sneaking suspicion that may be the case, the Meto forecast radar has nothing, whereas for the bank holiday they were bullish about the storm prospects. The cap is proving remarkably resilient, I think if there is no breakthrough in the next two hours today could be a bust, but there is still time and I hope I am wrong. When a white colour appears on the rainfall radar over England I think that is the time to raise eyebrows, it's all looking poised but no breakthrough yet.

To all those complaning about crud... patience, the exciting stuff will come later.

Gotta love the anticipation on this thread . Good luck to all of you to my north in your search for storms !

I don't think I will get anything down here in Southampton still but my family are in Hull so I will be watching with keen interest! Enjoy your storms, it looks as though further north at least, the cap will be broken. Can't believe Hull is under the level 2 ESTOFEX warning!

They aint got nothing on the June 1994 storms though Still we have another 2 and a half months to get it right, it has to sometime.

I reckon you stand a decent chance of getting a good storm so fingers crossed that you do, you may have to stay awake for a long while into the early hours to see them though!