Derecho

The output of the GFS 18z is actually scary, UK records would be smashed to pieces if that came off and to see a 47C in northern France on the GFS (which tends to underestimate max temps by 1-2C) is utterly bonkers. Nuclear power stations would have to shut over France and there would be blackouts and heat related casualties there as well. Thankfully however, something like that is very unlikely but in this day and age... never say never, records these days tend to get smashed by large margins. We had close calls in July 2015, August 2018 and July 2019 but those plumes got cut short. Some day in the future, with further warmth to tap into, the dice will unfortunately roll that way. Most likely scenario, high pressure remains over the UK with heat building if it crosses eastwards, followed by a brief plume and a thundery breakdown.

Brave call at this stage given it's June 14th, indeed the EC does show something plumey at the end of the run!

This has to be one of the most fascinating periods of model output I can remember and I still think there is scope for major changes in temperatures over runs during the next day or two. It is the most delicately poised setup and it all depends on that low over the Bay of Biscay. A swift transition to a cool north-westerly now looks off the cards, it looked odd anyway, I always felt a thundery breakdown could develop. I wouldn't rule out Saturday being the hottest day over southern parts of England, as there are a fair few really hot ensemble members in the EC for example. I think under this scenario the low would be further west with heat pushing further north. Could be some good thunderstorms if the hot air does make it further north, though the humidity won't be pleasant that is for sure. Difficult to know what will happen after that! I wouldn't rule out mid 20s on Sunday over the far east of England if that low over the Bay of Biscay does end up further west, yet somewhere close by will be very cool under heavy persistent rain. Some area though I think will unfortunately see huge rainfall totals through this weekend. A complicated setup.

Early days, thunderstorms may not be picked out until close range. The EC is hinting at some thundery stuff in northern England come Friday afternoon, granted it's not a favourable breakdown for storms though.

Plenty of support there though including from the control so it's plausible, don't think it's an outlier

UKMO isn't too dissimilar either though. EC is much better this evening, we might get rain on Saturday and the heat is gradually going but it could quickly turn settled after that.

UKMO Euro also looks like it'll be nice on Sunday, though the heat is pushing away quicker on the Saturday with a wet day in the south-east.

Superb GFS there, has the pressure building a little bit more. The cooler north-westerly flow is slower bringing in the cooler air south-east and then just has a high pressure dominated outlook from Sunday through the following week. Bank. It'll be interesting to see how that low in the Bay of Biscay on Saturday, the EC 00z was very bullish on developing it meaning we ended up under a trough. I feel it may have been too bullish and there could be a move towards GFS later. However given the intensity of the heat over the continent perhaps not...

With this current spell of weather, it seems we can either get a full on record breaking June plume but a very unsettled subsequent few days as this helps fuel a developing low... or we get some heat that doesn't quite go so far north and we end up with an anticyclonic north-westerly following instead. It looks either way that we will get a strong build of heights to our west or north-west, so there could be some impressive temperature swings over the continent where the extreme heat is more likely to make inroads. Watching next week with keen interest as I'm going for a little fishing holiday in Norfolk. I'd prefer the less intense heat for now if it means we get an anticyclonic north-westerly. In that pattern high pressure could easily move over us and things could warm up again. Any heat seems to be breaking down in an odd way, from the north/north-west rather then a potent thundery cold front incoming from the west.

We had a decent amount of lightning in Tring (Hertfordshire) and some heavy bursts of rain. Surpassed my expectations, I thought this would be limited to London south-eastwards. Hopefully a taste of what is to come for the summer ahead!

Sadly our family lost our much loved Bengal cat this week, in his last few days he was very tired and stopped eating. He had a heart condition which was fine after some initial treatment though his health declined last week. He spent his last night sleeping in my Mum's arms the whole night after sleeping on her lap during the previous day. He was put to sleep and died peacefully and there has been a fair few tears. We loved him and given his last few days, I think it's clear that cats can love their owners too.

Ah January 2013, the cold spells the GFS wasn't on board with until 2 days out, was dragged in kicking and screaming... was a decent cold spell, quite snowy and could have morphed into a February 1947 type month if the Scandi block had held up more. The Monday of the cold week saw an occluded front cross east and the snow was very heavy in Hull. The following night it got down to -13C!, just as cold as December 2010. I saw thundersnow one evening later in the week as loads of showers came in off the North Sea. February was rather cold but I don't remember much from it. March was even colder and it's a shame we didn't get these synoptics earlier in the winter as it would have been severe. Cold easterlies developed early in the month after a mild start. However it was quite a dry easterly. We then went through an unsettled phase with marginal rain / snow events that I think Hull was on the wrong side of for a time. The final third of the month saw some very cold air return though with a notable snow event around the equinox, though it melted fairly quickly. The very cold weather lasted into the start of April and I remember some of the model output was going to keep this going, potentially a cold snowy easterly which would have meant an exceptionally cold first half to April, the models backed off on it though. May was cold and unsettled, I remember briefly seeing sleet one late May morning. June was a decent month I remember but with average temperatures. July was superb, a lot of high pressure and I think the second half of the month became muggy and thundery at times. August was a pretty standard month for these days, with a big plume breaking down at the start of the month. Some big thunderstorms as the cooler air came in. September I moved to Norwich to do my masters degree. Weather was generally non-descript. A big wind storm in October I think. A chilly and dry November. December was very unsettled and windy. I think a northerly earlier on in the month caused some flooding near North Sea coasts.

I think by the end of the month, the provisional CET will stand at 7.8C. There is then the -0.3C correction for urbanisation. Additional data collected at the end of the month may cause a further correction so anywhere between 7.3-7.7 I reckon for the final CET, with the figure most likely to be 7.5C

I remember this year very well as I was 14 at the time. Had surgery in the January of that year and it was mild at the time but when I went back home we had a toppler northerly but this was much more potent then the usual with some hefty snow showers off the North Sea and I think this continued till early February. The rest of February was dry and chilly but they was some very mild days at the end. March was another dry and fine month and April continued the dry weather but there was some hot days too and I remember wondering when it was next going to rain. May was unsettled I think but the summer was superb. Some hot weather in late June and for even longer periods during July (though some unsettled periods in this month). The August heatwave was the first time I can really remember anything above the standard 32/33C and the prolonged nature of the heat as well as the intensity, hearing about all the deaths in France is what got me thinking about climate change for the first time. The Sunday in which the all time record at that point was set I remember just being cloudy with distant rumbles of thunder. The rest of the month was cooler but very dry, as was September. October I can remember being very cold and getting excited for the winter ahead. Was a false dawn really, November was mild and wet. December can't remember much of but I think we did get a bit of lying snow briefly between Christmas and New Year. I was in Hull at the time.

Thanks for this, where do you get those Guardian snippets from?

The odd thing is, Hot Fuzz was set in Wells Somerset but I don't think its the same church!

Interestingly if you compare the annual CET with recently digitised data from Radcliffe observatory in Oxford, the CET has less of a warming trend. Here are the annual means from 1814-2020: and then the differences between the two, where the blue line is above zero, the Oxford data is warmer and below zero shows when the CET series is warmer. Why is there more of a warming trend at Oxford compared to the CET series? Could well be urbanisation but then that wouldn't explain why the difference was generally flat between ~1850 and 1975.

Yup and given the last major paper about it was back in 1992 (Parker I think) there will be a huge amount of further data that has been digitised since then. It'll be interesting to see the changes.

Yup here is the global temperature anomalies according to the daily GFS output, still +0.28C above the 1981-2010 average so pretty similar to January 2019 despite a strong La Nina. The CET2 series looks interesting. Perhaps some newly digitised data has come to light, an extension of the daily data or some more information has come to light so bias adjustments can be re-examined... Was due to come out late last year but hopefully it'll arrive soon. A dataset as huge as the CET series takes a long time to analyse.

Pretty much, especially if you take out the opening 4 days. Can't remember a drier January here though, pretty reminiscent of November though obviously at this point its easier for surface cold to build. November was very mild at times. The dry weather will probably soon break in Spring though...

Yup well it has a standard -0.3C adjustment at the end of the month for urbanisation anyhow then possible further adjustments once the full load of data has come in. Usually end of month adjustments range between -0.6C and 0C

Lack of diurnal range in recent days though. It's a bit chilly for January but not notable. Friday night was the last one with any sharp frosts and even then there was marked variation in minima, Thursday night was the last which had a sharp frost widely.

Or Pinatubo in 1991, that was a VEI 6 I believe.

Any confirmation of the VEI? VEI 5-6 eruptions can impact global temperatures if certain factors allign (volcanoes aren't my speciality but I believe this happens if sufficient SO2 and ash reaches high enough into the atmosphere). Of course, the additional complication is that this was an underwater eruption. If the explosion could be heard 1000s of km away, just how loud would it have been if this volcano was above the sea surface? Frightening power.

I was in the Northampton at the time and we got a very good covering from the Monday showers. We then did well from a load of marginal snow events with some big dumpings of overnight snow. We must have had 20-30cm accumulations by the end of the week and these didn't fully melt until the 3rd week. That was the deepest snow I had seen, until December 2010 came along .