Derecho
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Posts posted by Derecho
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WYorksWeather Perhaps the source of the air at the surface wasn't particularly warm, it was a southerly wind at midday over the surface. (Upper wind would have been SW'ly going along isobars)
Back in June 2019 we had an area of +20C 850s and surface temps were not much higher. This is because the breeze at the surface was from the North Sea and that cooler air was undercutting the warm uppers.
The 29th of Feb 1960 synoptics were quite different to the above but a similar process may have been at play.
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WYorksWeather It's been overlooked on here (easy to see why it would be) but EC 12z member 7 goes for the most bonkers scenario for mid month with this early heatwave...
The 20C hpa line covers much of the UK at the above point. If that scenario came off, we'd be looking at a CET of around 13.5C to the 18th and a CET of 17C from the 12th to 18th!!
I doubt it will though it's a crazy run.
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Cold and sunny without hesitation. In that kind of weather you often see good diurnal temperature ranges and slacker winds. So when the sun is shining it can feel deceptively warmer during the day then a mild, wet and windy pattern. Good weather for cycling, jogging etc too.
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baddie Very windy every day... if it wasn't raining it'd be good weather for drying the laundry
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Unless meteociels table tools are playing up it is looking like a remarkable start to April with a CET of 11.8C on the 7th according to the 00z EC control. Some cooler weather briefly after that but not for long (if that does indeed happen!)
Note however, the EC is keenest to push some very warm air over us next weekend. Even with the biased EC maxes, they may be a bit too warm here.
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Great month with the first 2 weeks in August being fantastic. Don't remember the second half as much but the heat did break down with thunderstorms that caused severe flooding in Lincolnshire. We got about half an hour of torrential rain here with a strong smell of petrichor after such a long period of dry weather.
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Just seen a flash of lightning and gone through some hail on a train south of Doncaster
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Based on the EC control this morning. the CET looks very warm indeed for the start of April. Gone is the push of cold air south and it is now being replaced with a very mild cyclonic south-westerly airflow. Maybe quite plumey at times if things allign right? There are still a few chilly ens in there but the Control isn't the warmest.
So whilst still looking wet it is warm with minima holding up quite well. I think a lot of people should be upping their CET guesses (though I see quite a few have gone for 10C+. Worth noting however that the GFS has low pressure continuously crossing us on its output rather then slowly backing west like the EC does. UKMO and GFS also push some chillier air down a bit more in the middle of next week.
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If I could rank all the Springs I remember well... 2009 and 2023 I was away for a good portion of May...
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2 minutes ago, danm said:
you're right, looking back, London got above 20c only twice in April 2022 on the 13th and 15th, but we had a lot of dry days in March and April that year and overall each month in the Spring of 2022 was warmer than average in terms of maximum daily temperatures.
April 2022 I remember had some snow showers at the start when I was in Buckinghamshire. It became a lot better after the first week and was a very dry month in the end. This followed a great March. May was more on the unsettled side but was very warm and we had some decent storms mid-month.
Spring 2021 saw some great weather at the end of March. April was very cold but mostly by night with many sunny days that felt quite nice. May 2021 however was a shocker.
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Last year we got away with a reasonable April... however I think this one I could be heading into a stinker here too. This week funnily enough with the cyclonic SW winds has been pretty nice here at times but we have rode our luck so far.
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15 hours ago, Don said:
I think people are so used to mild being the norm now, their tolerances are changing?
Yup, I remember last April people were saying it was several degrees colder then average and terrible yet that wasn't the case at all.
I can imagine if we saw an April like 1998 or 2012 people would be having a complete breakdown.
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A CET of 8.1C is likely to finish the month if the EC00z control is anything to go by. The EC however tends to underestimate things a bit, even with me adding 1C to the raw maxes.
I'll log the maxes and mins to see whether I can improve my adjustments from the raw model data. The EC raw model seems to particularly underestimate temps at Pershore College.
Anything up to 8.3C is I think possible maybe even slightly higher. Last update from me though as I turn my attention to April next.
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Just now, B87 said:
April 2023 was pretty poor down here. Dull, wet and never really warmed up at all. It took until 6th May to get to 20c, about a month later than the average first 20c.
Yup I remember the stats in the south were poor for sunshine and rain in the far south but we was ok up here thankfully!
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That's two EC runs in a row that have had a huge Greenland block to kick off April. We've not had a bad April here since 2016.
2017 was often good (though I was down south then).
2018 was more unsettled if I recall but very warm, especially around the London marathon.
2019 was great.
2020 was completely dry here I think and sunny throughout.
2021 saw a fine April, cold and wintry at the start but sunny and dry after that.
2022 had some snow showers at the start but rapidly improved and was yet again very dry.
2023 was decent in the end despite some unsettled weather earlier on. In the end it was quite dry here with plenty of decent days but no notable warmth.
Could 2024 be my first poor April in 8 years?
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Looks like the CET guesses on Sunday were pretty close to the mark. After a sharp rise over recent days, the CET looks to level off. Not particularly cold according to the EC control but the 27th cold have a cold night with the control a lot milder then other ens. The control is generally one of the less warm members later on. I'd say a guess in the early 8s is looking good now.
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The rest of the month according to the 12z control:
Should get into the 8s by the 20th and then some colder weather for around the 25th. The EC quickly goes milder again after that but if the cold stays we could be looking at mid 7s. If any cold is brief and it quickly turns milder, mid 8s are possible.
Note the max the EC has for Pershore College is already underestimated by quite a bit for today.
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Metwatch Yes I do find it interesting that papers which have looked back on the UK climate on longer timescales have mentioned previous centuries had more frequent and more damaging hailstorms.
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The CET for today should come in at around 11.7C. According to the EC 12z control, it looks very mild from here in the closer term with the odd chilly night bringing in a closer to average daily CET. The 15th may fluctuate a bit depending on the timing of colder air.
13th: 11.7 (6.6)
14th: 10.7 (6.9)
15th: 10.6 (7.1)
16th: 6.3 (7.1)
17th: 11.8 (7.4)
18th: 10.6 (7.6)
19th: 10.1 (7.7)
20th: 9.5 (7.8)
21st: 5.5 (7.7)
22nd: 7.7 (7.7)
23rd: 9.8 (7.8)
24th: 9.7 (7.8)
25th: 10.8 (8.0)
26th: 12.4 (8.1)
27th: 13.1 (8.3)
28th: 11.9 (8.4)
So high 7s looking like a good bet into the last week of March. After that is anybody's guess, the control is one of the warmest members in the later stages.-
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On 11/03/2024 at 20:54, feb1991blizzard said:
Some reversal this - but we could have done with it flatlining for a bit longer.
Will it equate to cold though? I think we'd have to go down the Greenland High route for that, April 2021 type synoptics. It's a contrast to late March 2013 when the continent was still very cold.
I think there is too much of a focus on stratospheric winds sometimes, we can become hooked on these charts when the jigsaw pieces aren't in place for a cold spell to happen. Sure some northern blocking is a good bet... but easterly winds are common as we head into late March through to mid-june anyhow.
Does the stratosphere get more focus and attention then it deserves? It's fascinating and there is some good science behind it but it's renewed focus in recent years is likely due to the BFTE and the succession of poor winters that have preceded and followed it.
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raz.org.rain July 1808 had a particularly hot day with some interesting reports from the heatwave that month. Apparently Hull recorded 34C, Suffolk 37C and there was a historic hailstorm in SW England that did huge damage.
1808 United Kingdom heatwave - Wikipedia
EN.WIKIPEDIA.ORGThough the exposures of thermometers at this time and hyperbole in weather diaries means some information back then may not be so reliable...
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22 hours ago, Wade said:
The way things are going, 41 shockingly to many is probs a bit too low, I'd bank on something like 43 degrees in that timeframe given the perfect or worst (depending how you see it) synoptic possible
We saw with July 2022 we don't even need heat in place for that long. If we get a scenario where it does linger in place I could see 43C possible in the SE or Cambridgeshire though like 2022 a prolonged period of drier weather in the months beforehand is a huge help.
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On 15/06/2013 at 20:10, cooling climate said:
As far as 40c being reached on the UK mainland then like SB has said the preceding
spring would have to be very warm and dry across central and southern Europe with a
very warm Med. You would then need a long dry hot summer here accompanied by
some exceptional synoptics around end of July into early August to even come close to
achieving a temperature this high.
Personally speaking with the UK at a latitude of between 50 and 60 degrees north it is far
easier to break cold record temperatures than warm ones and in a cooling climate (no pun
intended ) this will be a growing trend.
This post aged like milk
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damianslaw I think given few Marches have had a CET above 8C, I think it is notable in the context of the whole CET series. We can't just take the 1991-2020 period in isolation and play down the figure.
We may see colder weather to end the month but a figure in the 7s would still be likely. We have an Ssw event to watch out for but that doesn't guarantee cold and with the continent so mild already we would need something sourced from the Arctic.
Given the way this winter has gone and the record breaking global temperatures, persistent mild conditions are a safer bet.
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April 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Derecho
Good morning all from a windy Humberside. Yesterday's CET should come in around the mid 14s. Remaining mild today but turning little cooler briefly for midweek.
Then we get some very mild weather from the 11th to 13th with some daily CETs in the teens. The 14th may be very mild too but Stonyhurst looks set to see the colder air from the northerly come in at that point. A slower advance of the northerly will yield a higher return for this date and maybe over subsequent days too.
The EC 00z control was on the more colder side of the ensemble for that northerly but it is possible. A return to some milder weather after that sees the CET up to 10.8C by the 21st so still a long way above average. If the northerly doesn't materialise I think we have a shot of the warmest April on record as the CET could be as high as 11.7C by the 14th.