Daniel*

12.8c and 60mm thanks difficult one, seeing potential for something colder mid month which could make a good dent but unsure about extent and longevity.

Well actually GFS was initially more the odd one and it proved right. There was decent representation for a warmer/settled long weekend outcome in EPS, it wasn’t just coming from det. It has gone from this to this for Saturday

ECM used to be quite convincingly best performing model unsure it is anymore.. From this to that quite shocking , still optimism for a noticeable improvement next week but it’s never easy.

Heathrow temp/rainfall data from January 1948 https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt sunshine began being recorded in January 1957 with Campbell Stokes recorder was used until October 2005 where it was changed to automatic Kipp & Zonen sensor.

I did some calculations..

Third wettest day of year here 17mm still raining. A really miserable spring so far and we thought 2023 was bad.

No this is first El Niño winter since 2018/19… La Niña has been dominant. The Arctic 80N+ hasn’t been abnormally warm either in 2024 so far. There isn’t a good correlation on poles, tenuous at best.

Fallen here to 7,5C here in central ish London with cold light rain this is really quite dire. Heating on.

It might not be relevant or applicable to other stations the Heathrow sun recorder was changed in late 2005. From Campbell Stokes recorder to automatic Kipp & Zonen sensor, it’s believed to marginally record less sun.

Today looks coolest day in CET area not in north of it though, chilly night and daytime temps looking more suppressed than expected. E.g. Rothamsted 0.7C low… 10.1C high… 5.4

On course to be dullest April in 26 years (1998) in London. The east has definitely faired much worse than west. Miserable, nondescript month really.

These people should be ignored.

Horror show pattern into early May on tonight’s GFS 18z…. takes one back to 2007-2012. The N Atlantic/Greenland blocking is difficult to shake off in spring with polar vortex out the picture.

They are much more notable later in month that’s the point. Using the point of 2018 an exceptional spring certainly demonstrates something. If we see a daily record with over half a century of data, it’s noteworthy at the very least.

Just done for Heathrow, preliminary high of 9C it’s tied lowest max on record for date with 1973. This is exceptional.