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Carlrg

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Posts posted by Carlrg

    Winter Model Discussion 06Z 17/02/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Carlrg

    Even though the Navgem (the new kid on the block) shows a cold Easterly affecting half of the UK at T90+

    http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=0

    Precipitation is none existent not only at T90+ but all through the run.

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/navgeme_cartes.php?ech=90&code=0&mode=2&carte=0&archive=0

    Still showing cool uppers though From T42+.

    http://www.meteociel...&mode=1&carte=0

    Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/02/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    No. That's why its called the Midlands. Another good prediction by a few members that the UK would get a cold spell at this period. Easterly regions look favoured for any snowfall at this point, but as many have said.... once the cold is here then anywhere in in UK is at risk. Personally I would like to see a GH high and -10 uppers, but there is more chance of that than MU losing the premiership.

    Snow for more than the East if the Bom is to be believed.

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?&ech=6&mode=2&carte=0

    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 12/2/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    It's now running direct from UKMO Best Data feed. It changed a few months ago. Essentally it's now giving the (basically ensemble) range through UKMO-GM and at closer range through other modelling including UK4, hence a more honest reflection of an breadth of uncertainty on temperature range at that sort of distance. For a presentation including explanation, see this 2011 powerpoint as pdf: http://www.metoffice....2_Golding2.pdf

    Many thanks for posting the PDF Ian.

    Just a quick question. Austrailian RMS errors at T+72 have come down dramatically in the second half of 2010. Is that the time they took on the UKMO model?

    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 12/2/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    No undercutting lows up to the 20th on any of these models. The HP to just stalls them and keeps them in the atlantic.

    http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/comp_panel.php?mode=0&ech=6&size=0

    HP will have to move to our North to drag in the cold from the East.

    http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/comp_panel.php?mode=0&ech=180&size=0

    Personally i think that Hp over us is going to take some shifting. On the up side a dryer spell will be welcomed by our rain soaked little island.

    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Carlrg

    http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=0

    The fat bird Shannon Entropy has yet to pick up the Karaoke mic.

    http://www.meteociel...=144&carte=1021

    But is stood at the bar, waiting to pounce with Pina Colada in hand.

    http://www.meteociel...&ech=192&mode=0

    And at the very last minute Nigel, Shannon's ex boyfriend has dragged her from the pub kicking and screaming.

    http://www.meteociel...h=72&carte=1594

    Shannon escapes the clutches of her ex lover, runs back into the pub and snatches the Karaoke mic out of the hands of Tracy and sings a lung busting rendition of it's raining men by the weathergirls.

    Winter Model Discussion 18Z 19/1/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Carlrg

    http://www.meteociel...&mode=0&carte=0

    The fat bird Shannon Entropy has yet to pick up the Karaoke mic.

    http://www.meteociel...=144&carte=1021

    But is stood at the bar, waiting to pounce with Pina Colada in hand.

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=192&mode=0

    And at the very last minute Nigel, Shannon's ex boyfriend has dragged her from the pub kicking and screaming.

    Winter Model Discussion 12Z 15/1/13 onwards.

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I often ask myself why I love severe gales and atlantic zonality! Really guys, looks like an epic 2 weeks plus for snow and some very low night time temps. we could have not asked for more, better than 12 degrees and drizzle innit. I suspect, going off current output there will be no trees putting out early blossom this year like last.

    All I ask is that folks look out for the birds, 2 to 3 weeks sub zero is tough if your a sparrow, give em a water source n some fatballs!

    Here, Here very well said. With 2m charts as cool as these they will need all the help they can get.

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/bome_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=0&mode=8&archive=0

    I know it in FI but temps showing even cooler to the end of the run!!!!!!

    And before anyone pulls me up, i know its the BOM but it was developed by the UKMO so that's good enough for me.blum.gif

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