[Ireland Regional Weather Discussion]

And just like that Model Discussion has turned to the southern discussion happens every single year without fail unbelievable and the mods seem to highly support it to.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Wouldn't be surprised if this low ends up missing the south altogether as time goes on.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Ec 12z ens48 please.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

They do - so the AI models should do better on this upcoming scenario 

Is there excess to the AI model yet?

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

I know what one I'd rather have ukmo is locked in but it's miles of from the reliable good few days to go yet but general direction is coming together.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

2 minutes ago, Tidal Wave said:

UKMO T+168 brings cold rain for many:

 

Snow for many and even the rest as it pulls SE.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

1 minute ago, Mcconnor8 said:

Not much wrong with that cold air pulling in as low moves SE.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

7 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Only if the lot shifts south.. what time is 168ukm please?

Boom 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Only if the lot shifts south.. what time is 168ukm please?

The difference is huge i think ukmo will be just fine not sure what time out maybe just after 5pm.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

The Met update give me a right giggle.

Should it not have already done so, following a spell of colder conditions the most likely trend through this period is for a return to milder.

May as well haven't Scooby-Doo when cold conditions we'll end.

Ukmo is loaded @144hr can't wait to see @168hr.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

7 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

There's honestly nothing in it between GFS cycles. 

 

Note the huge drop off with this blocked unstable period 00z looks the best to follow the rest nose-dived.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Surprised how many didn’t trust the ec op to follow it’s 06z run when all the other models are now on the same page 

have some faith !

Gfs leading the way for days now crazy times  

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

1 minute ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Nothing secured at this stage could all still change, but on a positive note it’s heading in the right direction 

Yes as it meant to read it would be secured if that chart game to fruition.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Lol ukmo prolonged cold spell secured with that chart

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

9 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

No, but it will have taken into account tropical forcing & I suspect GLOSEA/EC decider models which evidently are not supportive of the det runs being shared here. 

The Met are the best in the business. 

Go through there daily updates @Summer Sunkindly post everyday i see a different picture tending colder with each update from the metoffice, there slowly backtracking  to a colder outlook ukmo joins the party never to late

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

6 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

The only slight difference is it has the shortwave further north and west,rather than South and East like the gfs,we need it to sink South East quickly and.not hang around 

Yea but it's coming kicking its heels some difference from earlier run at such a short space of time.

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Ecm 6z moves to Gfs 2nill lol what's going on 

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Annoying this.  ARPEGE does ok at short range so a tad concerning its brought that low south and is pumping up vortex over Greenland... 

But the high looks locked in place will erode the vortex

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Arpege at it again 06z

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Broadly speaking Ecm & Gfs very similar height rises early on into scandi then a further bout of amplification in the Atlantic with a low dropping from iceland through uk enhancing the easterly winds.

[Snow and Ice Northern Hemisphere - Winter 23 /24]

3 hours ago, Windysun1 said:

Hi all,

Stupid question maybe but i thought i read somewhere that the antartic sea ice was increasing? 

It was going against the grain of what the scientists were predicting.

Is this not the case any longer?

Depends what articles you read I've read plenty say its growing and plenty say its melting  

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

5 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

When last did we have this depth of cold to our Notheast/East in late November?

2010 now that's cold  

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Don't like ecm 96hr unfortunately to much energy over the top  

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Ukmo & Gem similar @168hr

[Model Output Discussion - mid Autumn]

Gem all on board operation