BM4PM
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Posts posted by BM4PM
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Goodnight everyone I'm throwing in towel. What a night to remember! Makes all of the obsessive behaviour worth it to get a glimpse of what a true blizzard is like. Every time we get a big storm I always think "what if this was snow" well now I now!
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Freezing rain here but the met app has it turning back to snow in the next hour.. if its raining where you are stick your head out of the window and you should hear (when the wind drops) a distinctive tinging noise as the rain drops hit the surface.
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Nice blob coming into South Devon
probably gona be rain but as long as the lamppost doesn't drip I don't mind -
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Following link for anybody who wants to know what freezing rain is. Or you can carry on making missinformed statements http://January_1998_North_American_ice_storm
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Ok who switch on the Plymouth snow shelf!
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30 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:
These charts are usually very accurate, but I'm still a bit concerned that they bring in uppers of +2/+3 for a short time on the coast - surely it can't snow on that?? I hope and trust the models know better than me!!
Loving the cold btw, felt lovely walking home tonight, so much better than a wet 4C!!! Can we have minus 15 uppers every winter please???
Somebody correct me if im wrong. With +0 850s the snow will melt at that level and turn to rain but as the surface cold is still there it will freeze as it hits the surface. So freezing rain rather than snow. Lovely!
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10 minutes ago, Jeckers said:
Heavy snow with drifting in St Keverne (on the Lizard) and looks like more coming!
Will post a pic when I can find some mobile reception
Sign of a true cold snap if it snows on the lizzard. Fantastic!
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4 minutes ago, SNOW CRYSTAL said:
I'm loving these reports from the south coast. Nothing here where I am but at least some of you snow starved people are getting something, however feel free to share ??
Been snowing on and of in plym too. Don't worry it's coming at ya!
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Was greated by trafic jams whilst trying to get to the gym at 9.30 this morning so turned around and gave up. It's not even bloody snowed yet!
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OK sleet has stopped now as forcasted. All eyes on the radar now. What are the chances of a polar low developing over the warm Irish sea?....I can dream
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Snow/sleet in good old plym
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13 minutes ago, festivalking said:
Out of interest what's everyone's weather app saying for tomorrow then. Be interesting to see if it tallys with the telly forecasts and to gauge how much it moves around.
Showing heavy snow/sleet mix around plymouth airport from about 3pm onwards. I think our best chace down here is if we catch a heavy shower later on once the the cold air gets in. I'm not holding by breath.
My wait for a repeat of Jan 1987 continues..................
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Quite an extreem met weather warning for the north. Heavy snow accompanied by 55 mile an hour gusts bringing blizzard conditions, with posible lightning strikes causing disruption to power supplies. Im not in the slightest jealous......
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It happens everytime. No way I'm getting sucked into this one. Perhaps the north will see some of the white stuff but for me I'd rather keep the blue skys going.
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16 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
For the GFS to be correct both the ECM and UKMO have to be wrong at T96hrs. At this point there are already some important differences over the e/se of the USA and to the ne over Russia.
When was the last time the Euros combined were wrong at that timeframe? I don't think any of us are in the mood for the GFS with its flattest solution to be correct!
Correct me if I'm wrong but wasn't it the gfs that first backtracked from the infamous Dec 2012 beast from the east. Granted this is a completely different situation.
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13 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:
That could indicate a continuation of the UK high though with a colder UK but no snow.
Agreed! Also the average anomalies over north west Scotland would suggests to me the that the jet is riding over the block.
I am no expert though, so if I'm seeing that wrong please feel free to correct me lol
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2 hours ago, Penrith Snow said:
I know my friends down south wouldn't like it but in my opinion the best route to cold is from the north west similar to what is being modelled in GFS FI.
I thought a Scandy High was never a real option and I still think that will have to wait till February but an aggressive north westerly flow with embedded south east moving systems is a real option and has been frequently modelled. Such a scenario is also within the wider atmospheric constraints discussed by Steve M earlier.
Its worth remembering that 'up north' January 2015 was quite a snowy month due to cold zonality, indeed, I recorded more snow that month than during January 2013!
No good for you Londoners but give us a break lads you have the best of the summer weather.
Snowy zonality aka 1984 it is then.
Andy
I wonder if the cold Atlantic waters would improve our chances of snow from a north westerly due to less modification of the flow at the surface. Just a theory, perhaps someone with more knowledge could clarify?
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Next weekend is far from resolved with the ecm still showing a northerly of sorts. Will be interesting to see if the the gfs op has the backing of is its ensembles (highly unlikely) as this would give us more confidence that the op has the correct solution.
At the moment as long as the met outlook is still forcasting a n/easterly I'm still hopefully. All to play for in my opinion.
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11 minutes ago, MP-R said:
Not only is the depth of frost a lot less than first thought, so is the chance of snow. Grr! If we're not going to get snow, let's keep it dry and frosty please. It's already gone cloudy.
I know what happened to the cold frosty weekend. Its nowhere near as cold as it was forcasted a couple of days ago. Its not even cold enougth on dartmoor for snow now.
Cant believe how wrong the models have been! I just hope that they get it wrong again and we tap in to more of the cold air to our east.
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The mrs gets me every year. “O look its snowing” so i shoot up out of my chair and all i hear is her snidey giggle.
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16 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:
Being 6 to 7 days away it's never ever going to be as modelled now, they're struggling enough with the fronts coming in tomorrow night/Thursday! I'm going to agree with you about it being modelled further and further West and predict that come Monday morning the front won't have even made it to Cornwall and this region will be bitterly cold.
Just like feb 2013 when the met put a amber warning out for south devon and we didnt even see a flake.
I remember sat watching a huge blob of percipitation on the radar stall about ten miles of the coast. I think jersy had a foot that night.
Absolutly gutted! I dont think ive ever recovered from that one.
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1 hour ago, jethro said:
Just trawled through half a dozen pages of the Mod thread.. it never seems to get less bewildering. Time and again when there's a whiff of cold weather about you get folk adamantly refusing to believe it until the UK model is on board, now it's the UK model brandishing the snow wand, the same folk won't believe until the GFS&ECM say the same.
You seriously couldn't make it up.
Think the problem is that some of the posters in there genually dont know what they`re on about so it gives a mixed picture when you read it.
Its a shame, some of them are very knowledgeable and they put a lot of effort into their posts, only for all of it to be ruined by rampers and wined up merchants.
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8 minutes ago, khodds said:
So... Anyone able to give me the low down on current West Country thinking please? Ta!
I reckon just about anywhere will see a flake but temps are to high for it to settle. After all the mild weather we`ve had, sea temps around the coasts are high which modifys the air. I surf and ive never felt the water as warm as it has been, this far into the winter.
Dartmoor, mendips and coltswolds would be your best bet for a few cm.
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1 hour ago, festivalking said:
You're not getting your weather updates from the Herald are you
Was on the 10 day glace forcast from netweather. Makes me wonder how they came up with 6%, as imo its 0%.
Reckon you may be in with a shout of seeing a flake or two.
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probably gona be rain but as long as the lamppost doesn't drip I don't mind 
South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 22/02/2018 Onwards
in Regional
Posted
Since when did we name blizzards a storm called Emma?