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BM4PM

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    Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by BM4PM

    12 minutes ago, abruzzi spur said:

    They have actually said one of the warmest.  And, of course, this is globally.  Whether or not our tiny island gets some cold weather is not going to skew the MO prediction nor cause them to or stop them forecasting something when they have sufficient confidence to do so.  I suspect the reason they are not forecasting what some of the models have been showing is because they will do what a public service forecaster should be doing which is to issue a balanced forecast based on as near to certainty as they can get. 

    You`ve missed my point, i didnt say that if it gets cold in the uk it screws up thier long term statement, my point was if the media pick up on them forcasting brutal cold i think they they may start pointing fingers. 

     

    If we see a real cold spell develop and they metion very cold in their outlook, ill hold my hands up, but i very much doubt it!  

    Spring moans, ramps, chat and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

    You live in Plymouth on the south west coast of England - even less cold days than my location.

    You need really really special synoptics to benefit from cold and snow. Reality.

     

    3 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

     

    what do you expect living in the mildest part of the country?..having said that I think a few are definitely going overboard regarding cold and snow..words like bitter cold..heading for a deep freeze and copious amounts of snow..yes it will be cold but not overly so and a lot of precip will be marginal..plus its not a done deal yet..could be another 8 days or so before any real cold hits..if it dioes?

    Trust me i know what to expect! I moved down from the midlands thirty years ago and have only seen liying snow a handfull of times. 

    My point was that imo the mark of a proper cold spell is if we can get snow in around the lizzard . Only then can we say its been special :)

    Or maybe im just being shellfish. 

    Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    44 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

    I thought I had already explained the 18z , never mind.

    Stick on trend with the ECM - it's busy with the final uppercut to the vortex this evening, so excuse the lack of transfer to the 18z gfs.

    Reasons not to be despondent - 

    1 AAM is running aat 3.7 this is an insane figure, it has also ran at beyond 3,5 for the lat 4 days, AAM figures are generally averaged over 5 days to provide some sense and sensiblity. Link here no smoke and mirrors or teleconnections dark arts etc http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/nschiral/research/gwo/gfs_aam.txt

    The last few runs way above 3.5, yes these get smoothed on a 5 day average, well look at the last 5 days, insane.

    Infact from reload the only year we have even stepping to these figures is 83....

    That for a 2015 winter is not our guide, what is our guide is the undoubtable flip in winter mode.

    So, the netwx winter forecast said - oh this is due to SSW?

    A) Yes, but on what level.

    Are You Claiming a success on the regime shift where no technical SSW has occurred?

    B) No , well would anyone.

     

    Above are 2 questions I feel that must be addressed in regards to our forecast.

    a) On the subject of an SSW creating colder conditions - Yes unequivocally this was forecast, where we are at now and the creation from now of an SSW Event is pivotal. What is pertinent is that the Wave Activity over the season created the potential for a SSW event to occur. Our projections for this season were between 07 January and 14 January. What we did not anticipate was the extreme radiative forcing leading to a hugely strong vortex during the December period, this vortex reaching historical means. What we did hold confidence in was the flip in the NH pattern via the El Nino stratospheric pathway, the timing of which we took over the means of SSW events. This year unfolded in a new regime, a regime so new that it created new parameters for the physics of past events to operate in.

    1 #The El Nino Southern Oscillation ecllipsed all known records of forcing,

    2 The 10 hPa level and 30 hPa level of the stratospheric vortex saw immense cold phases.

    Both of these phases were linked loosely to analogs, some of which saw completely opposite phases.

    Importantly with or without the stratospheric influence of a technical SSW, the NW winter forecast witness the blocking regime shift we see now in front of us. Yes the tilt east on the ops and ens has teased, the imprint of the NAO pull in january has been in plan since 20th October. Let me state that again, since 15th to 20th October. no hype, no nonsense,

    This block has been in play since then, why - 

    1 All analogs for Nino years displayed a trend, some were heavily weighted to early season SSW , therefore eschewing the Jan blocking look.

    1 These were discarded, and along the way out of the window went some of the best weighted sst anomaly, enso, qbo years.

    2 Result - even lesser data set. So, we carried on with the potential evolution of Enso infront of us #October, bearig in mind last year ENSO didnt pull thorugh with the eQBO.

    3 Result - less years, composites created, ENSO years tagged, peak ENSO Tagged, PDO Tagged, AMO Tagged, composites built for DFJ across all includung the QBO wave.

    4 REsult - we had DJF patterns at H5, 10mb and 30mb

    5 Discussion - in a classic Netweather move guess what - we binned them all, all the redaction , all the science, super duper- it painted a mad picture, we went with what we thought was good.

    Does that make Ed and I forecasters? No.

    We have many professional colleagues on twitter who are excellent forecasters and specialists in their regime.

    Does that make Ed and I infallable?

    No, never, as I have said before re forecasts its only as good as your understanding and what you put into it.

    Does that make us brave?

    mongoose Yes - and excuse the question and my language here, we had massive boots to fill taking this on and gave it the best shot ever.#

    Are we or is Ed, Strat expert?

    Yes, regardless of the technical updates or papers quoted, yeah I reckon Ed has the grasp of the strat better than anyone in this modern weather world, and by that I mean UK and USA.

    Where does winter go from here?

    Edit - apologies couple of bottles of vino slammed, hopefully Ed will be more coherent ! The strat trop disconnect has drove me to Sauvignon Blanc !

    My Answer will not please - where do you want it to go, is it an easterly you want, it is a northerly, is it a mild SWrly truth is I dont care. Genuinely.

    My interest is in igniting passion for people wanting to learn more about what can affect the UK, what can deliver, what can tempt what can tease, what caxn frustrate, then take that and look at everytrhing we have and go wow - I didnt know x =y.

    Polls today said we can all talk about the weather with a wry smile, guess what everyone who has read this, you can do that knowing you are one of the passionate people others wonder about. You are this far - it aint a past time here, it's a passion. Welcome Aboard. X

    Hi, 

    Thanks for sharing your thoughts and given a complete novice like myself a insight into how the pros make a forcast. It is very much appriciated as im sure it is by everyone else.

    Just a quick question, whats you thoughts on sunspot activity and was this factored into your forcast? 

    Somebody mentioned on here that it`s very low at the moment.So i thought i`d ask. 

    Ps currently working the nightshift so have one for me will ya :) cheers

     

    Model Output Discussion - 05/01/2016 18z onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    32 minutes ago, Cloud 10 said:

     

    Remember when the scale on that graph used to only go to -4,then it got extended to -6 a few years ago.

     

    Looks like its ready for another update.:D

    I`ve been following the models\weatherchat since 2011 and have never seen it go of the chart like that.

    If you dont mind asking, what sort of levels did the nao tank too in 2010?Last time i looked it was only just negitive.

    • Like 1

    South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by BM4PM

    Thanks BM, like I said to Beast, sounds a bit manic! Do you know of any quieter, more accessible places to go sledging? (any of the moors will do)

    Cheers JB

     no worries JB, like i said high willhays is the highest point on dartmoor but i'm not sure how you'd get up there. A friend of mine likes mary tavi for sledging because there isn't loads of rocks around there. 

    South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by BM4PM

    Didn't think we were in for that much snow BM (or are you aving a laugh)

    no not having a laugh. me and the mrs got caught out one time now she refuses to go out there lol.The weather out there can get nasty and very unpredictable. DONT LET ME PUT YOU OFF THOUGH! ITS ALL AN  ADVENTURE SO ENJOY.

     

     

    High willhays is the highest point on dartmoor just south of Okehampton. You may be better of going there.

    South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by BM4PM

    Thanks for the heads up ET, will check in the morning...Have you got a link to the web cam you mentioned?

    Thanks again

    JB

     Don't go near any roads between plym and Princetown if i was you.there will be half of Plymouth trying to get out there aswel. Also be prepared for possible blizzard conditions.TRUST ME IT BLOODY STINGS!

     

    EDIT: looks like the beast beat me to it.

    South West & Central Southern England - Weather Chat

    in Regional

    Posted

    now the met office has completly  jinxed any chance of snow on sun/mon. They have included torbay ( home) in warnings. Ever since i moved down from oxford 15 years ago every warning for snow has come to nothing.  Hope someone in the far southwest gets so action. Peter.

    now the met office has completly  jinxed any chance of snow on sun/mon. They have included torbay ( home) in warnings. Ever since i moved down from oxford 15 years ago every warning for snow has come to nothing.  Hope someone in the far southwest gets so action. Peter.

    Remember the Amber warning for nowhere else but south Devon in feb 2013 ? The one when it didn't even rain.sure the met did that just for a laugh .

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