nicknacknoo
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Posts posted by nicknacknoo
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It doesn't just tease though does it?!!
It's a continual severe prod in the "snowballs"
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Regardless of whether it happens im just impressed with how the models have upgraded when he said they would.
What members especially newcomers need to realise is following the models isn't just posting what they are suggesting because without being rude I could teach my mum how to do this. This isn't forecasting, the trick of following the models is knowing if they are right or wrong and if they are wrong how and what is likely to be correct. Some members do this especially the likes of Steve M & Nick Sussex.
ECM mean continues to suggest an E,ly which could become a NE,ly.
Yes, and what is particularly nice is that these posters offer some reasoning behind their analysis. Not all members of the site are studying meteorology or climatology at degree+ level so it is nice to have some pointers in using the charts for prediction. Well done and thanks to those posters who do this.. including you TEITS
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I think that because of the reputation chio especially built up with his well reasoned posts in the relevant thread a lot of folk started to make 2+2=anything but 4 regardless of what he and other quite knowleadgable folk posted. That is where most if not all the hype came from. A 'new' tool to predict the weather regardless, and of course it is nothing of the sort. What it is, is ANOTHER part of the puzzle in trying to predict at longer time scales what MAY happen.
PLEASE next winter can we all come back having spent at least part of the summer reading and taking note of all the available data, what can and cannot be predicted; and its all in the FIRST post or most of it that chio posted way back last autumn-PLEASE read it and remember what the links say.
Any chance of a quick link to this John so us learners can more easily do our homework over the summer?
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I'd trade all the previous runs for a chance at this one. Channel lows anyone?
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We all know how many times the ECMWF model has produced fantasy 'THAT ECM' charts in deep FI this winter, none of them have come off
Ah, but per chance to dream! Perhaps since nature seems to like to disappoint it's time for a little reverse psychology. Lets ramp up the spring warmth ala gav.
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http://www.meteociel...H1-144.GIF?22-0
There has been a subtle shift east in the models over the last 36 hours whereby the Vortex ( on a few runs ) has headed into Scandi allowing the possible chance of an Easterly scenario as the low moves up from the Med... ( Possibly most have missed it)
Worth a consideration.-
Also worth note though is the residual energy over iceland not allowing the full retrograde... that could scupper the cold...
S
Indeed Steve, any chance of the cold pool to our NE being brought into the mix? FI i know!
Nick
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cant comment on 65, 70 was the biggest fall and took several days to go. the rest were 24 hour wonders, oh and there was heavy (but temporary) snow in april 68. on those statistics we get one snowy spell in march (of any note) every ten years....
well.... the 12z completely downgrades any cold chances, no northerly, no cold uppers to speak of. i dare say that this run isnt a trend setter but an outlier, so i for one will not be breaking open the champaigne to celebrate the coming of spring just yet, dispite it being right up my street! itll take several more runs plus anomaly chart confirmation before i start getting more confident of anything springlike coming.
just goes to show though, that northerly was not nailed, it wasnt certain, those who were sceptical were right to be so. mind you, that doesnt mean to say that there wont be a northerly, just that yesterday was too far off for it to have been certain.
Agree with this... though strange because while looking at the run things looked a lot more promising up to circa T174 with a better uninterupted flow heading towards the north. Can someone with considerably more expertise please explain the reason for the divergence between the models (GFS 06Z and 12Z) from this point on?
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Gavin., on 22 February 2013 - 16:47 , said:
Nothing majorly cold from GFS tonight looking fairly zonal from later next week
I'm in agreement with LS here, certainly not my definition of zonal. T300+ maybe.
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One heck of a difference in deep FI though!
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As i'ts again quiet at he moment.
I notice i've spent the last 2 saturdays studying thickness levels, 528 dams and the hysdrostatic equation.
I believe I may be turning into a sad git !
Could more experienced members tell me whethet this will:
a) Verify
b] Remain in FI
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as stated previously, I'm new to this..... but honestly... what would you prefer?
High to the north (current) lows to the south (Easterlyflow)
or Highs to the south, lows to the north (westerly flow)
Surely it's a no brainer as regards current synoptics!!!)
Perhaps a little cold ramping can be allowed! Certaily as SM states, a little push from the south and we'll all be in Nirvanah (fergie grim land )
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Strangley, temperature rising
Currently 6c Southerly winds 93% humidity with dew point of 5.1c
Barometer 988 falling slowly
No snow chance here me thinks!
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As its quiet here at the mo, I thought I'd sum up my first impressions as a newbie to the forum.
1) The lesser spotted GH has been absent without leave all season despite indications to the contrary
2) Fi charts that depict favourable cold outcomes never verify....... zonal patterns do
3) Horrible 'shortwaves' keep popping up to ruin our chances although I suspect that poor synoptics are allowing this to happen
4) This winter has been characterised by flimsy synoptics over the near continent and nasty persistent 'PV stuff' over the other side of the pond
5) Low heights to the west, no heights to the northwest and high lows to the east with impossible low lows to the centre.
6) The GFS is good in the short term... apart from when it isn't
7) The ECM is good in the long term...apart from when it isn't
IB and G are true sun worshippersHeres hoping that the latest 18Z +252 verifies.... one of them's got to one day.
Nick
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Hi, new to the site.
Could some one clarify ensembles, models and operational runs? Nothing 'too in-depth' but a better understanding would certainly help with my knowledge and understanding of the 'modelling' thread.
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Evening all, I'm new to all of this but a keen enthusiast none the less.
Has anyone got a brief synopsis (sorry) of the acronyms and technical terms you all use?. I know I can find most on the met sites but I sense also some 'forum specific' stuff.
IB and G are true sun worshippers
Model Output Discussion - 2nd March Onward
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Not sure that this fax is too bad, a nice little slider along the channel will do nicely..... especially if it can pull in a better Easterly in front of it.No good if its heading north though!