o0herbie
-
Posts
41 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by o0herbie
-
-
Just been taking a look at forecast temperatures for Poland and Ukraine - they are currently, and forecast to be, comfortably above zero.
-
-
Snow has returned just south of Reading
-
Rain has turned to sleet near M4 jc12. Tide is turning back...
-
Quite a temperature gradient showing
-
8 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:
A surprising amount of snow here. The M4 is literally the cut off between warm and cold sectors!
You're not wrong - I live a couple of miles south of Junction 12, at above 100m. 1cm of snow has been washed away by the rain. They have a few inches of snow in Reading, just 5 miles away and 40m high - although north of that road!!
-
- Popular Post
13 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:Right, I've had a look at the charts today and thought I'd offer my interpretation of where things go from here. A lot going on but will summarise the three potential routes we are most likely to go down at this point.
The first scenario is exactly what the GFS shows, we have this broad synoptic pattern at T144 with the GFS
GFS at T144 Ideal scenario following on Further down the line
Which is very good as it halts the displacement of the cold uppers to the east and we get a potential channel low. If we get the perfect undercut we could get the ideal scenario of heights improving to our North and a displaced Azores high moving north and pumping warm air to Greenland. Getting something like this requires everything to fall in the right place though.
The GFS is actually pretty close to this, the Scandi low hovers around for a bit before the Azores and arctic high link up . The net result is a very cold easterly flow making its way across the UK. The 06z gets a 9/10 from me. There's a fair chance to get to the middle panel (may take a few tries), I'd rate the chances around 30-40% because the GFS is being consistent with the cut off high again.
ECM meanwhile still has the undercut but further east, the result being a less cold flow over the UK, though I think the next logical step would be to get another northerly, though with a PV lobe around NE Canada ridging may be a bit troublesome. This would probably mean repeated NW'y winds until an opportunity for a displaced Azores high occurs. It's a 7 out of 10 run from me because we get that cold northerly in the end of the week at least! I'd guess a 50% chance of this path being taken.
ECM at T144
Finally, thankfully looks unlikely now but this was the worst case scenario
Hence my fear from the 18z last night. However the pressure didn't build enough and it wasn't that bad a run. So I was probably a bit quick to fear the worst. I think this scenario only has a 5-15% chance of verifying now.As a long time lurker and non-poster, I'd like to highlight this post as one of the most useful I've ever read on here and implore other posters to use this as an example of something that helps those of us who don't completely 'get it'. Thank you Quicksilver1989
-
21
-
The bulge in the storm over France seems to be rotating - anything we can read in to that?
-
Looks like West Berks will continue to miss out. Nevermind, off to western France at the weekend!
-
1
-
-
I'm getting implausibly excited by repeated models showing south coast snow on Fri/Sat!
-
2
-
-
Am I right in thinking the worst effects will have left the English Channel by Sunday night, from what we can currently see in the charts? Overnight cross Channel ferry!!!
-
Meteociel have recently added sea state modelling - keep an eye on it as (pardon the pun) it is all rather vague until exact track is firmed up on.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/nww3_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&mode=2&carte=0&archive=0
Should be useful for my family's overnight cross-Channel ferry on Sunday night <gah>
-
Absolutely incredible storm, I think we were pretty much in the middle of it. Our fusebox tripped during the peak period when it was constant overhead lightning.
Daughter wet the bed, son didn't wake up!
-
2
-
-
- Popular Post
Fergie has tweeted
"With ca. 60% of EC & 50% MOGREPS members offering colder E'rly into next 6-10d, UKMO lean towards this but with caution: may flip other way"
-
13
-
Reports of thunder and heavy rain along the A33 south of Reading - I'm just to the west and nothing to report.
However, the relief from the sun hiding behind clouds is wonderful
-
Thankfully those signals for fog never materialised in the end today!
Driving from Newbury to Cheltenham this morning I came across a single bank of fog on the A417 - very strange experience to go from sun to fog to sun!
-
Temperature only rose above zero briefly here in West Berks today and has already sunk back down. A couple of brief flurries too.
Brassic.
-
About 3 inches on top of the cars, but anything on the ground is melting away slowly. The 20m height difference down in to the village makes a huge difference, virtually nothing settled down there.
-
I'm off to walk the dog - needless to say I'm taking the car to Pamber ForestConditions getting bad in Newbury on the roads.. Not nice try not to drive if you can. It maybe wet but it is heavy and the roads slippery and slushy. Visibility ain't good either
-
-
It had settled on roads in Tadley at 7amIt is Bristle Boy. Large flakes setting on cars Etc
Looks to be quite wet though although starting to settle on pavements. Am off to the dentist later this morn so I will find out for sure.
-
Surprise snowJust woken up to find heavy snow falling here in north east Hampshire. I don't think its been falling for long, but it it definitely settling. Didn't expect this!
(the best kind...!)
-
I'm between you and Newbury - it's heavy and settling but roads should be passable.Morning all. Heavy settling snow here in Arborfield near Reading. Anyone know what it's doing in Newbury as my boys are supposed to be playing football at 9.30am?
-
Heavy snow on Hants/West Berks border. Settled instantly, 1cm so far.
Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
This is the kind of post that drives an amateur like me insane. A lot of explanation as to how an area of nothing on the southern tip of Greenland can turn in to an easterly is needed!