Joe Levy

Went out shopping because the weather looked okay outside, then got attacked by my wheelie bin as it blew over in a strong gust of wind before being blasted with rain almost horizontally! Though we don't have the worst of the weather here, it isn't exactly benign! http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

According to Twitter there is an "unexpected blizzard" in Princetown http://uksnowmap.com/#/

Taken from Dartcam a few moments ago - http://www.dartcom.co.uk/dartcam/dartcam.jpg

A few flakes of snow mixed in the heavier showers here in Exeter

Try living in Exeter where even when the valleys of Central Southern England get snow, we still don't get snow! Last year there were large amounts of snow a few miles up the M5 and on high ground to the west and north of us, but we just happened to be sitting in a gap in the snow precisely the size of Exeter

That warning doesn't mean no snow south of Gloucester, it just means that it is not worthy of a warning nor is it likely to cause disruption. Even with that, the marginality of the situation means that the snow could be greater or lesser than forecast!

Yes it did indeed, I tried to walk along the river Exe to Topsham a few days and I couldn't because the path was flooded. Exeter is protected as far south as about the Countess Wear Bridge. South of that and it is very vulnerable to both tidal and river flooding.

Note how the flood warnings and flood alerts stop abruptly at Teddington, reinforcing what I said about how Teddington Lock and the Thames Barrier protect London. Imagine how much worse these floods would be if we had no flood defences. There are many big cities that have been spared the worst, in spite of the disastrous situation elsewhere. In Exeter we are very grateful for our lovely large embankments, overflow channels, weirs and canal!

I am not exactly sure, but anecdotal evidence from my family suggests that its effects were felt considerably further west than that. My Grandparents lived in Notting Hill at the time (back before it became the home of the rich and famous!) and their basement flooded. I'd be surprised if, given the severity of the flood, and the lack of the Thames Barrier, there was not flooding throughout much of tidal London. But I cannot confirm that. I think that the Thames is unusual in the way it funnels water from a sea that also has a tendency to funnel storm surges into small spaces. The Bristol Channel does this more significantly, due to its very high tidal range and near perfect funnel shape, but more people live in London (including the government and the media for the most part!) so it is not surprising that Thames tidal surges are more feared and publicised. The Severn Bore is more of an amusement most of the time! Sorry, rambling here haha

The absurd bit aside, it is very important that the Thames Barrier is raised, especially for areas upstream of Teddington at the moment. This is because the Thames, in normal flow, is only tidal from Teddington Lock downstream. However, during major floods, the tidal range extends much further upstream, sometimes as far as Oxfordshire. By putting up the Thames Barrier, though water levels remain high, they fluctuate far less. If the flooded areas of Berkshire and Surrey were exposed to the tidal ranges of the Thames, then the results could be catastrophic. That is my understanding of the situation anyway! Also, downstream of Teddington Lock is not so much at risk of inshore flooding, as the lock is used to regulate water levels.

It's been a very beautiful day so far in Exeter, with bright sunshine and showers, but a strong blustery wind as well. I had the misfortune to go for a run during which time there was a hail storm...

Sorry for the late reply. My honest answer is that I have absolutely no clue! Logic would suggest that this has to end at some point, but then 2012 is an example of a year where that logic did not apply! In any case, the explosive development of lows that we have seen is not necessary to cause further disruption, as any rain we get is unwelcome now. There are certainly indications that drier weather might prevail in the medium term, from a few ensemble members and the odd op run, however this is merely an option that is being repeated as a minority solution, rather than the most likely outcome. I suspect the stormy weather may occupy almost the entire month, but who can say for certain! That is a very fence-sitting answer there I have just given you, but that's the best I can come up with!

If by 'last stand' you mean the storm that completely inundates the entire country and forces us to live in a Kevin Costner style Waterworld, then yes

I think those are called mammatus clouds, someone correct me if I'm wrong. EDIT stupid internet didn't show me other replies which had already answered the question! DOH!

This is what the Met Office say: After a short lull, winds will increase from the southwest during the course of Saturday with severe gales affecting coastal districts, bringing gusts of 60-70 mph and isolated 80 mph at the most exposed locations within the Amber warning area. Large waves are also expected to affect southwest facing coasts. Further inland, gusts of 50-60 mph are likely. so I reckon the worst is still to come unfortunately. I am on a west-facing hill in Exeter and the wind has picked up noticeably in the last hour. This is 9am this morning: http://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-3.61,47.86,1115

I live on a hill! I am fed up of the storms. Storm damage is not altitude specific for the most part, with high winds and heavy rain causing disruption for any number of reasons. It is the major disruption caused on a scale not seen for decades that is concerning. People on the coast and floodplains are not surprised by flooding or by storms, but they are surprised when the stormiest period in 248 years occurs!

I think a lot of people are "whining" about the damage caused to people's properties! Yes, I too love a good storm, but with storm after storm, and persistent damage to transport networks and whole settlements forced to be abandoned, I am starting to crave dry weather!

It is very interesting how variable the rainfall has been across the region, as IF mentioned in a tweet earlier. Exeter seems to have had very little rain so far today (though the radar indicates that is about to change) whilst other areas appear to have received fairly significant totals. I'd be interested to know if anyone has any figures for Exeter to compare to other areas of the South West and Central Southern England.

In Exeter the river levels are very high now and although they will probably go down slightly tonight, the rainfall tomorrow could prove very problematic. http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/riverlevels/120726.aspx?stationId=3262 I walked along a 4-5 mile stretch of the river and I was quite astonished at how much even the wider sections of the Exe have flooded, with areas like the Quay and the railway line upstream of St. David's now especially vulnerable.

The storm last night was awful, even here in a relatively sheltered part of Exeter (though I am on a hill). Why on earth are so many resources being pumped into building new railway lines from London (where I live for half the year by the way) when down here in the South West we keep getting these periods of stormy weather which paralyse our road and rail networks! As I exciting as storms are, the fact that large parts of Somerset are underwater and whole sections of the coast have been rendered unusable, thus cutting off major routeways, is very sobering indeed, and is a reminder that behind all the charts and computer models, people's lives are at stake. My appreciation of weather forecasting has never been greater!

The river levels are responding rather rapidly to the rain. For instance, here is the River Exe at Exwick, an important location in terms of travel as it is this area where the trains run closest to the river. Obviously currently the trains are not running to the west of Exeter because of coastal flooding and other weather related concerns, however with more rain forecast, this section is always one to watch. http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/riverlevels/120726.aspx?stationId=3262

The wind is shaking the house here (Exeter) and I am struggling to open the back door! Not that I should, since every time I do I get sprayed with a bucket's worth of rainwater!

It has the potential to cause major flooding issues upstream as well I would imagine, as any storm surge would slow the release of flood water which, combined with existing flooding, saturated ground and heavy rainfall, would be very damaging indeed.

Just thought I'd compare the uppers shown across Britain for Saturday morning, according to various models. This will be one of the factors in terms of wintry precipitation, though by no means is it the main or only factor! EURO4 (6z) UKMO (12z) GME (0z) GFS (12z)

For someone like myself who tries but cannot always understand all the complicated factors at work in creating long term weather patterns, one of the most reassuring changes of the last few weeks has been the persistence of the models to show warmings in the stratosphere. Though not in the dramatic way of an SSW, it is the continuous gradual warming that has happened and is forecast to continue that is giving me cause for optimism in the long run. This particular chart is at the very end of the GFS 12z, but warmings are shown for pretty much the entire run before this. I honestly wouldn't have understood any of that without guidance from posters such as Nick and Tamara, as well as many others, so thank you