The Post-modern Winter
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Posts posted by The Post-modern Winter
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From Ian Ferguson in the ENSO thread - in reference to the ECM monthly . .
22 minutes ago, fergieweather said:Indeed it did. Essentially it runs an consistent story through N-D-J-F of +ve GPH/MSLP anomalies to NW/N of UK; -ve ones to S/SW.
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Sorry mods if this is wrong .. How the hell can u claim winter is over. It is these sensational comments that clutter the thread from people who are a) still learning and b) trying to keep a level head on hoping bit also studying and watching listening and learning. I dint often post in here as my knowledge is still growing. This is without a doubt not going to be your average winter.. and to be told winter is over even begire the meto official start.
Sorry mods if this us wrong but how frustrating it is to be told this....
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Best inform the Met to shut down Glosea5 for the winter Ian - Peter H has bad vibes and Cpb gets the impression that it's tentative signs for December are way off.
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BBC Weather App shows no snow for my area at all and no air frosts until Monday.
Some cold spell this is (not) going to be.
Roll on Spring.
You don't half moan mate - I'm about 7/8 miles from you and we've just had a weather warning issued for this evening/tomorrow and periods of heavy snow/light snow for almost 24 hours starting at 19:00 (via MO). Admittedly you might be a little more marginal than me but what you've stated has no truth in it.
About 10 o'clock this morning I woke up to snow falling for a good 15 minutes as you can see below.
Cheer up.
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You are right west they do matter and in my mind they are the main indicator we have on whether its going to snow but anyhow like you said its all been covered before.
Anyway big differences in the output at 144
Which one will be right? UKMO is notoriously unreliable at 144 so i will maybe go GFS on this one. Either way it all looks a bit marginal but hopefully the right side of marginal And yes the screaming jet is a worry as well!!
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shouldn't this be on the moan thread? it doesnt reflect the CONSISTENT output
'Much of the UK is likely to be in a cold, showery airstream at first, with sleet and snow showers across northwestern parts of the UK. Gales are likely across northern Britain too. These colder conditions are expected to last through Friday and into the weekend, with further spells of snow and overnight frost and ice, especially across the north of the UK.'
thats what the metoffice say for thurs onwards. this nonsense that cropped up re charts T72+ being unreliable ....... not sure where its come from.
Nope - another incorrect statemtent
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=14&month=1&hour=0&year=1963&map=4&mode=2
Can you hear that BA?? Wait, Just listen. . I think it's the sound of something going over your head.
I mean seriously, my reference to IDO PM'ing me is an obvious indicator of a little jesting. .
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Not feeling that chart - IDO Pm'd me the 16 day mean for January 14th 1963 and it's showing a strongly westerly flow from a dominant Atlantic
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GEM sets up an unstable cold N/NE flow. Synoptic looking very good.
GFS essentially has us in a NW/N/NE flow for several days and yet never programs the 850's across England to be lower than -4C - yes there will be milder sectors but that seems rather far fetched and given the general synoptic being modelled across the output I think we can expect some decent upgrades to this GFS 12z Op ouput.
If we don't get caught worrying about will it snow IMBY and unknown detail the big picture is that a potential cold snap is being upgraded to a cold spell (and yes it suits Northerners better initially but the South doesn't look excluded later)
This is going to turn into a winter that only really existed in a computer chart, gone are the deep cold charts on offer only a few days ago which always only ever seem to exist in FI these days.
Replaced are watered down uppers that will not be condusive of snowfall in nearly all low lying areas...this the uppers on the GFS at + 144
Not even a hint of a -6 there !!
The UKMO evolution is better at + 144 with more of an Easterly component, but it's still only good for favored areas.
The overall trend today is to keep that damn Azores high waiting in the wings to ruin everything , IMO a short lived cold spell that will not be remembered this time next year as being any significant.
This is the time when you start looking at trends to see if a decent cold spell is coming or if another 3 day cold snap is coming and the balance for me has shifted very much toward a cold snap of maybe 4 or 5 days at best before a return to westerly driven weather, to be honest the UK weather has become very predictable in the past 12 months, it's getting a bit boring now
Glad to see we're all on the same page. .
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The reason why the radar shows precipitation when there is nothing falling from the sky is because of the air.
The precipitation is only light and moving into very cold dry air and this is preventing the precipitation from actually reaching the ground as it evaporates before reaching ground level. You need heavier precipitation for the droplets to reach the ground when the precipitation is moving into a dry cold airmass like today.
Ps. If I was around the Wrexham area, id be excited for tomorrow, looks like it will be a decent event for areas around there.
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My area following on from 5 hours of heavy snowfall on the Tuesday evening. . Please don't change. .
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Just took the dogs for a walk on the land - met with some beefy snow showers. Nice wintry picture up here.
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Very heavy snow sticking on all surfaces, including the very wet ground. Met office forecasting heavy snow here until 3 o'clock tomorrow morning.
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Think a few posters are confusing their Christmas day associations - it's a time for elves, not trolls.Models all over the place and mildys are out in force. Weeks of zonal apparently. Avoid for a while until the wind ups have left the building
I genuinely feel sorry for those on Christmas day, whose first port of call is to come revel in some schadenfreude on netweather. I sincerely hope they get a little more happiness and positive focus in their lives over the next year.
Merry Christmas to one and all.
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@MattHugo81: Consistent signs for the strat vortex to become increasingly elongated & eventually split by early 2015 #OneToWatch http://t.co/nurhvHq1qYIt's all looking rather nasty into next weekend. Strong winds been shown on the gfs. With some transient snowfall to higher ground. But what seems to be the biggest concern for coldies is that it now seems we can forget about a ssw. Seems that the polar vortex will strengthen now. Really can't see any intrest out into fi either. Think met office might just be right with there lrf for winter.
Mmm . . Matt Hugo with a chart to back it up or terrier's usual non-supported claims repeated as an absolute truth?
Who to believe guys?
(In no way am I saying that Matt is correct but terrier's assertion that "we can forget about a SSW" and "that the polar vortex will strengthen now" jarrs massively with Matt's backed up claim).
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must addmitt... this smacks of december 1981 !
however.... i do think its way to premature to start getting excited just yet, 'the event' should it happen is still in fi, note the ecm and gfs 06z dont agree about the severity of this ridging later next week.
premature excitement often leads to disappointment and moaning in reality.
You must always be prematurely excited then Mushy. .
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Think we all need to take a step back to be honest. Talk of cobra meetings taking place are well wide of the mark. Looking at the gfs 06z away from scotland we are looking at nothing much apart from a few fleeting cold snaps. Yes we may well be seeing a northern hemisphere pattern change taking place. But snowfall this side of xmas is very rare for the uk apart from dec 2010 of coarse.And until the mo come on board we should all be very sceptical of the eye candy runs in fi. So lets see what the next few days bring. And if were still seeing similar output around next monday then we maybe onto something. Until then i will watch ian fergusons updates with intrest regarding the met office musings.
Your luck just might be in Terrier. .
UK Outlook for Thursday 1 Jan 2015 to Thursday 15 Jan 2015:
The most likely scenario for the coming New Year is for a continuation of unsettled, and at times, windy weather coming from the Atlantic with the wettest weather probably across western parts of the UK, and eastern parts most likely to see the best of any dry weather. Temperatures are generally expected to be around average for the time of year. There is a chance of some overnight and morning fog in places as well as a local frost - this will be most likely across northern areas where there is also a chance of some snow on higher ground. However, there is no strong signal in weather patterns during this period, with a period of colder weather possible too.
Considering that yesterday any reference to cold had been removed and certain people were fretting, I will certainly take this update.
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London GEFS Ensembles, looks like the strongest cluster of runs with below -5 uppers for weeks.
Edit: and I agree, long term means are useless in isolation. Posted side by side from a few timeframes to get a sense of movement then they might show something. Anomaly charts at that range at least show where we are in comparison to the norm.
I agree regarding the mean; even from a fundamentally mathematical point of view I can't see it being of any use initially in the scenarios that many are searching for, i.e. a pattern change. Can anybody more experienced tell me how the mean charts would have looked two weeks before the onset of the late Nov' 2010 cold for instance, or any other relevant cold spell?
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In any case, this is the model thread, not the further outlook thread.
Why not mention this to IDO?
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I have noticed the UKMO have updated their first half of January forecast. Basically the most likely scenario is a continuation of the current theme with a lower chance of a cooler more settled period: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpu5w5gx.
So possibly any amplification in the last week of December will be a transient feature, that is assuming it happens, which remains fluid.
In the interests of accuracy, the Met's outlook states a risk of "colder" weather, not "cooler" as stated by IDO (naturally, I assume this an innocent mistake). Considering the ongoing ruckus pertaining to the subjectivity around what can be defined as mild, I think it only fair to point this out. Let's face it, if the MO were referring to mild temperatures and 'a coldie' came in and changed their working to average temps, I imagine there would be quite an outcry from a select few members. Let's not mislead forum viewers IDO - the potential results of cool and cold airmasses over our tiny island are rather different.
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Agreed Nick. Noteworthy (as some others here have also spotted through different output) are the increasing EC and MOGREPS members offering ridged solutions towards latter stages of 10-15d trend period, which, in words of UKMO Dep. Chief, "...may be the first signs of a general change of type across northern Europe, with a slow-down in the predominantly W/WNW’ly jet – this in response to some signs from global teleconnectors of a move toward a negative NAO." There's no sign of meaningful change/cold pre-Christmas, but the period afterwards *might* offer broadscale change.
That showed only for a day so I guess it was a glitch. In general, it was persistenly showing -NAO from mid December but then it got pushed back to early January and now later in January.
As stated consistently by Ian, the above quote from the chief forecaster should be treated with caution however they are clearly seeing something we aren't. I wouldn't place too much focus on the CFS-derived outcome regarding the projected NAO.
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Think I was spoiled as a kid in truth, grew up in Coedpoeth 600-700ft above sea level just down the road from Bwlchgwyn and snow was pretty much guaranteed every winter.
Yeah, I grew up in the centre of Chester which is virtually snowless every winter but now live at 750ft with part of my land passing 1050ft. Seen snow every DJF, bar only two months over the past 5 years.
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I noticed a few postings ago talking of people writing the winter off. I for one didn't say I was writing it all off. Fact is though, we are nearly at halfway through the first month of December, with the majority having as yet seen nothing that could be described as remotely wintry. What we have had is the odd frost, a big gale and a fair bit of rain both in the form of frequent showers and frontal.
As I said I am not writing the whole season off, but I do feel that the time is fast approaching when it may be wise to trash this month. The models do not show anything of encouragement within the reliable, that is a fact. It is already noticeable that people are already having to make jam tomorrow postings suggesting the promised land could start coming into range in 10/12 days time. Smacks of last time round a wee bit too much for my liking. I'm not saying people shouldn't post Jam tomorrow stuff, but surely it can be understood that some will be sceptical after what happened last time round...Jam tomorrow that never actually came. The dread of a repeat is difficult to suppress and it doesn't help knowing that a milder period with rain is coming.
If you're that desperate have a drive up to Bwlchgwyn/Gwynfryn mate. About 20 minutes from you and you'll see something wintry right now. . Nice little dusting up there.
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ECM 00Z more realistic, definitely trended towards GFS, 00Z flat as a pancake, expect other models to follow, its early Dec for god's sake, westerlies dominate
'Westerlies' and the Atlantic dominate in December? Really? I don't think you've ever mentioned this before IRA252 . .
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The 6z GFS op shows an intense displaced Azores High just off SW Britain at the end of it's run supported by a strong and flat Jet stream much too far North to nudge it away and it is an increasing and worrying trend for the start of Winter because such synoptics can prove stubborn to shift once formed and and can also become a repetitive pattern as past Winters can testify too It is at least shown very early in the winter and is way out in la la land at the moment. Let's hope it is removed in subsequent runs.
HERE IS MY LATEST ANALYSIS FROM THE OUTPUTS OF THE WEATHER COMPUTER PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO WEEKS FROM 8AM TODAY TUESDAY NOVEMBER 25TH 2014.
NEXT UPDATE WEDNESDAY NOVEMBER 26TH 08:00
THE CURRENT GENERAL SITUATION A wave depression is forming over the English Channel, moving NNE through the next 24 hours towards the North Sea later tomorrow.
MODELS-2 WEEK HEADLINE Generally changeable conditions look likely across the UK though the emhasis should be on more dry weather than wet with temperatures close to average though below where any mist, fog or frost patches develop later.
THE JET STREAM ENSEMBLE FORECAST The GFS Jet Stream Ensemble forecast shows the flow remaining weak around the UK and Europe for the remainder of the week. The trend thereafter remains for it to increase and push further East over the Atlantic, UK and Northern Europe in the second half of the period.
GFS OPERATIONAL The GFS operational this morning shows disrupting Low pressure to the West of the UK by the weekend following the slack and Low pressure across the UK over the next few days. This disrupting Low pressure then is split into a cut off Low over Iberia while another portion moves harmlessly away to the North allowing a ridge of High pressure to reform over the UK from the European High pressure block at the weekend. Later in the period High pressure remains the driving force of the weather over the UK gradually forming a centre either over or close to the UK with some cold and frosty conditions likely to develop for many as a result with patchy fog problems too.
THE GFS PARALLEL RUN The GFS Parallel run is in unison with the operational in the first half of the period before High pressure develops more towards the SW allowing the Jet flow to override and collapse the European High pressure. This then makes for a milder WSW flow across Northern areas extending South at times with some rain at times, more especially across the North. Later in the run a deep Low diving SE over the North Sea introduces a plunge of cold Polar air across the UK with keen North winds and showers or longer spells of rain, sleet and snow in below average temperatures to end the period.
THE GFS CONTROL The GFS control run this morning closer resembles the Parallel run in sequence with a slow transition towards the High to the East giving way to more control towards High pressure close to Southern England. This of course as indicated before allows the Jet flow to cross East into Europe at higher latitudes and allows temperatures to rise on a WSW flow across the UK with rain at times in the north. It is supportive thugh of some form off attack from the North, albeit temporary on this run late in the period with some rain and snow in placesfor a time.
THE GEFS ENSEMBLES The GEFS Ensembles this morning show the most favoured point likely to be held in two weeks from now is the UK to be locked in a trough from Low pressure close to or over the North of the UK with the Jet flow quite well South with unsettled and at times chilly weather with rain at times and snow over Northern hills, though this brought about on a mostly Westerly flow.
UKMO UKMO today shows a strong ridge of High pressure across Eastern Europe, all the way West through the British Isles and with a new centre well out in mid Atlantic at Day 6. Low pressure lies across Spain and over a point North of Iceland. The resultant quiet weather with West winds in the far North and East ones in the far South will leave most of the UK benign with some bright spells along with mist, fog and frost patches developing again with time.
THE FAX CHARTS The Fax Charts show a developing Low pressure over the English Channel over the next 24 hours with a complex array of troughs across the South and East gradually transferring NE in the wake of a strengthening SE flow later in the week as a deep Low complex develops near Spain. pressure is then shown to rise across the UK as a ridge develops across the UK from Europe.
GEM GEM this morning also shows the theme of disrupting Low pressure slipping down over our western Sea areas and arriving over Spain. This sets up an Easterly flow over the South of Britain while a ridge from Europe and later the Atlantic disects te UK with a slacker west flow over the far north. Towards the end of the run pressure falls from both the SE and NW with a complex Low pressure area bringing rain and rather chilly conditions to many before the end of the period in slack cyclonic winds then.
NAVGEM NAVGEM shows a much more marked push of Atlantic weather East across Northern Europe next week as the High over Eastern Europe collapses and allows a displaced Azores High to lie just to the SW of the UK then to become the dominant player in UK conditions with strong Westerly winds with rain at times across the North while the South sees some more lengthy drier periods between very occasional and lighter rain events in average temperatures for all.
ECM ECM this morning also shows a cut off Low feature over Spain at the weekend while the UK lies in centre ground to a ridge from an European High to another one over the Atlantic. On this run there is strong support for the Atlantic High to eventually form a UK based feature with all the attendant Winter issues of fog and frost, widespread, persistent and dense likely to develop across Britain as a result later in the period. This would make conditions very cold locally. Before this develops though a band of cloud and rain from the North is shown to move down over the North and East of the UK towards the middle of next week.
THE ECM ENSEMBLES The Ensemble run shows strong support for much of the UK to be under quiet and anticyclonic conditions in 10 days time with much of the UK likely to have surface air pressure values in excess of 1020mbs. The centre of High pressure will be of paramount of importance as to what conditions will be experienced in any one place at the surface in terms of frost and fog amounts.
NOTABLE TREND CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS RUNS There is still an element of indecision between the models of developments beyond this weekend though the overall general trend is for High pressure is one shape or form to be the overriding factor close to the UK later in the period.
MY THOUGHTS The pattern this morning remains a very complex one with many factors coming into play over and around the UK which could all shape our weather very differently over the period if one factor overpowered another. As it is the models do vary considerably in detail once we leave this weekend which looks like being benign under a ridge from the East. The general belief next week is that there will be a gentle shift towards a new High from the Atlantic playing a more dominat role in the UK weather over the remainder of the period. The positioning of this will be instrumental in the weather type at the surface with differences in opinion on this shown across the models this morning. If the High makes landfall over Britain which is shown by a number of runs then the net result will be quiet and fine weather for the UK but it could well become cold and foggy with frost widespread. This could be reluctant to shift through the day in the light winds. If, however the High is held to the South as is shown by some other output then the Jet flow will overide the system and flatten the pattern to make for mild Atlantic winds to affect the UK with rain at times chiefly in the North. There is also some opinion that the High could move East of the UK and allow Low pressure to slip South over or to the East of the UK later bringing a plunge of colder polar air down from the North for a time late in the period. It really is a case of you pays your money and takes your choice on which theory if any proves correct come the time. It does look increasingly unlikely now that unless the current High pressure over Eastern Europe can gain assistance from a new High pressure centre elsewhere the block over Eastern Europe will probably not deliver anything cold to the UK this time but with plenty of High pressure floating around at our latitude over the next few weeks there is always a chance that these could be drawn to a position more favourable for bringing cold weather to the UK sooner or later albeit home grown anticyclonic cold or from a cold source either from the North or East. As I hinted at yesterday the pattern is far from set at the moment and there remains plenty of interest hemispherically to induce or maintain interest for coldies with I anticipate a cold period likely at some point over the next three to four weeks looking quite likely for the UK perhaps with some snow though that word 'patience' is going to have to take frontstage.
This is no way intended as a slight Gibby, but just two days ago you were saying that you were confident of a cold period over the next three to four weeks. Now you're looking at the absolute opposite end of the spectrum where a set up may occur with absolutely no chance of cold going into weeks 3 and 4 and one which you infer could eat further into winter. You're a poster renowned for objective analysis of the models so I'm slightly confused.
Was your talk of cold over the next 3/4 weeks in reference to next weeks high pressure led cold and nothing more substantial. Obviously there has been a shift in direction over the past two days, but not to this degree that I can see?
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Which one will be right? UKMO is notoriously unreliable at 144 
North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards
in Regional
Posted
It is indeed all snow up here on Hope Mountain