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Gadje

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Posts posted by Gadje

    Scotland/Alba weather discussion - Jan 2021 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    3 hours ago, CatchMyDrift said:

    Either way it's goalie gloves for her birthday:

    1787825187_Screenshot_20210114-131824_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.52a9ce49267db3d8b6b8ab0ad052bf0f.jpg

    She is but I was a bit worried she'd ask for calipers too.

    We ex- Berwickshire lads have moved to more snowy climes it seems- you only slightly to temperate Canada I believe, while it's comparitively Arctic here in the Tweeddales <cough>. I often look up Charterhall weather just to see how the old neighbours are doing weatherwise. Enjoyed your Borders weather info btw. I recall the day when the BFTE arrived walking from Fogo and quickly got a bit scared and came home quickly with the girls, cheeks stinging from the howling wind and dry snow. Bliss.

    • Like 3

    Model output discussion - cold spell approaching?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Paul

    37 minutes ago, Johnp said:

    Essentially to get proper deep cold in the  south, we usually require the winds to be curved around an area of high pressure (such as a scandy high) so that the winds have as little sea track as possible. 

    These deep low pressures that move across us and take an age to fill just waste time down here. 

     

    Back on track - phasing of the lows is going the right way for coldies. I don't think it will matter though. That might be a IMBY comment .

    • Like 2

    Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    18 minutes ago, Jason M said:

    GFSP not being mentioned tonight because it basically goes zonal.

    That said, based on all output and GEFS nobody can really predict at present beyond day 6 (even that is a stretch). The GEFS are all over the place by day 6.

     

    Everbody here knows we could go zonal even with a SSW. Zonal is the norm for our little island in the atlantic. Models struggle to get to grips with SSW's. Why should members comment on a run likely to be wrong showing zonal ?

    • Like 2

    Model Output Discussion - Staying cold into the new year

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

    Actually I seemed to recalled the effects of that SSW lead to consistent charts barring minor detail changes. The Beast from the east was certain to happen as the models was consistent with it. 

    Anyways back to the models, then the UKMO is an improvement regarding the easterly, - 8 uppers hitting the east coast and even a hint of the - 10 uppers in the North Sea. Dissapointing ECM though but it shows why upper air temperatures are more important in a set up where there is wind around especially from the North Sea. 

    Regardless, windchill over England especially is going to be felt so it will definately feel raw out there. 

    Nope several runs showed it heading too far south, hitting southern France. That was after it looking a cert to arrow in on the UK. Cue the doom, same as now.

    Cold hunt - models and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    To get very cold weather here in the UK is a memorable event and I live in (the snow usual suspects) Scotland. So I don't expect real cold, but I do enjoy it a lot when it happens. That it's a rarity, is the reason why I am here. Were this the 10th winter in a row of being blocked in by snow and nothing in the shops, perhaps I wouldn't like it. OK I admit that's a lie.

    The hunt for UK cold is always a game where the odds are stacked against you, why partake in it if you don't enjoy the hunt?, success or failure, it's lively, entertaining and informative in here. Many seem worn out. The weather doesn't owe us anything. My heart may sink a little when charts show little hope but I know tomorrow there is always another run and further chances. Keep hope coldies. Just don't expect too much.

    When the weather decides winters is over I will look forward to Spring. Winter is not over yet though.

    • Like 5

    Cold hunt - models and chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Lloyds32 said:

    Happy? How could I from a cold perspective, not sure your point.

    At 168 we don't want the LP it that position.

    Good charts you're invisible, a slight backtrack to mild - you're in like a mild warm breeze. Nothing wrong with liking mild mate, just maybe not the thread for you, unless enjoying others disappointment is your thing? if so you have mates here.

    • Like 4

    Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019

    in Regional

    Posted

    Sorry Ravelin, my question of 'where?' to your post in the model thread was a snarky ironic reference to the whereabouts of the place called Scotland, not the position of the  -14  850s. Reading that thread often I need to remind myself I'm not living in Suffolk. Although they like sheep there too I hear

    • Like 2

    Model banter returns

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    51 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

    Write off the GFS?....

    We see the classic 'angel fish' 2 wave pattern taking shape here- 

    GFS(P) (last available run)

    gfsnh-0-324.thumb.png.5c051822b0c415ef63c207f685aca56f.png

    GFS op -

    gfsnh-0-384-7.thumb.png.b796f65b8f7684bc7710f06fb15e9dcd.png

    And.... December 1962 -

    archivesnh-1962-12-27-0-0.thumb.png.3abe3c195b0d59123577f1d81f29aa42.png

    If my land rover sees this, there'll be a puddle of engine wee in the morning...

     

     

    Nah the wee will be frozen.

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    9 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

    Still no height rises showing up over Greenland as far as the eye can see....out to 240hrs anyway.

    Yes the flow is turning cooler with hill snow for the North. Nothing unusual for mid winter though of course will feel .cold after the incredibly benign and mild last few weeks. The grass isYgrowing here like it's mid march

    Take yer eyepatch off yer eye then! After 240 is when the fun is expected to begin.

    • Like 6
    • Thanks 2

    The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I'm still very optimistic regarding a cold winter this year. At least we aren't in our normal, repetitious Atlantic grey grind winter weather pattern, far from it. Some exciting events happening above our heads and I'm bloody excited to see what happens however it turns out. Nice to be here to share it with you all.

     

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1
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