NorthWest_Snow
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Posts posted by NorthWest_Snow
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its got some nice streamers coming off it too..big old white clouds been watching them since they came of the system nw of NI bigger clouds.
1am in now, and we have some very strong rotation, and movement se, still has a very noticeable eye, not seeing any break up, there is movement south east, looks like its getting a move on before the approaching fronts..wont hold my breath yet though..it needs to really get a move on
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I see what you mean but it could just be it breaking apart.
but if you look at the latest pic, it still retains its eye and looks pretty solid to me, with a gradual movement se..but you could be right.
oh dear look at the secondary low and its position, but then again if you look at it, that pl was moving nowhere before, and suddenly the secondary low has appeared the pl has begun moving se..i hope we are not seeing its break up ..i fear if the system doesnt get a move on, we could be looking up at a very fast break up
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latest image looks a lot better and might i say there is definate movement se
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james there you go http://www.sat24.com/gb
James M to me it looks like a dodgy sat image, if look at it one side doesnt match up with the other see bottom of the low.
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its hard to say what its actually doing the last pass shows some sort of movement there
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Well one thing is for sure it looks very interesting. The problem is I feel slightly out of my depth regarding polar lows. I remember wrongly forecasting one in winter 2003/2004 which never really came off so I have always been cautious ever since, so nowcasting will come into play.
On another note, with the LP pressure system possibly feeding more energy behind it and spending more time out at sea surely thses are 2 positive contributions in terms of ppn intensity? Oron the other hand would the polar low simply merge with the LP system?
EDIT: I see SP has answerd the above question.
it depends, if it is actually moving south (it looked like an sat hiccup on last return), we'll see in the next hour if thats the case, it will be fine..if not it will loose it's convectiveness due to the lp swallowing it in effect..what we want is south movement, we have the warmer water it needs to grow those those clouds for better ppn..waiting game i think
EDIT: checked the 1230 sat image there is definate movement south, which is not surprising really considing the actual setup in place..i dont think it will destroy itself, its getting bigger its beginning to move south, just how fast it does is another thing..otherwise yes it will blow itself out before it gets to nw scotland..actually its something we should keep an eye on for the next hour..the winds up there are nw, the clouds are blowing in a nw fashion through the channel there..not saying about the pl, just the clouds. so we have a nw and a slight n flow in place
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31 users currently here - compared to 12 before.
Must be something interesting....
haha actually take a closer look at the wider european sat http://www.sat24.com/ notice the rotation off to the northwest of that polar low? what the hell is that? it looks on reflection like an unclouded lp linking up, maybe just what old pl needs to get moving lmao
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Totally agree with you mate mate, you know how it is weve been let down so often etc etc. I think alot of us here in the north-west have become extremely pessemistic over the last week !
As you say its a case of nowcasting and I will certainly be keeping my eye on it because as Stephen P said earlier weather-wise they are very exciting to observe.
it looks like its going to wind itself up to be quite a big pl, if thats the case, the low technically isnt that far away from us about 300 miles northwest mainland scotland? clouds can easily extend up to around 6/700 m and since it isnt so far north it could pick up the warmer waters than that provided by the gulf stream..cloud base could be built quite rapidly..getting carried away again..coz it may burn itself out..but who knows haha thats what i love about nowcasting :lol:
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Mate i'd love it if you were right but as a lot of people have said the track of the feature is'nt set to hit the north-west of England which is unfortunate.
They are fantastic scenarios that have the potential to bring loads of snow to the nw every year but they seldom produce the goods.
Anyway, 2 cracking quotes from tonight as I have read through the pages:
"It's probably for the best really - the way things have gone so far it would probably advect warm air over us from the Irish Sea giving rain here before passing through the Cheshire gap and giving blizzards in the midlands and south east."
"It seems that to be an indication of how poor tonight is that we are reduced to discussing another feature that will probably bring no snow too."
haha no mate i am not saying we'll get hit by a polar low, certainly not that one (my fault i am getting tired, you meant the snow in the south didnt ya?
)...i dont think anyone actually knows where the track is HS certainly not for the polar low..they are difficult enough to forecast let alone know where one will end up, as people have said the only way is to nowcast it..i expect like SP said before it will likely blow itself apart where its standing, but the thing it needs we have and we'll have to see if it will begin moving south or not..there is a northerly wind, and watching the map you can see it with the cloud cover.its certainly getting beefier for sure -> http://www.sat24.com/gb
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That radar is so inaccurate, the snow is very heavy across Birmingham - Coventry - Rugby, for example.
according to meto the snow is now south manchester and moving north
Interesting stuff to look at but the polar low will not bring any widespread heavy snow to our region. period.But great to look at andunder the right circmstances they can bring conditions we all dream of - but unfortunately the mechanics are not in place.
Hot*Snow
i remember a long time back in the early 80's someone said something very similar, i mean we hadnt any snow like now for quite a period..and a pl developed pretty much in the same place as that,and some one said that wont do anything for us prolly go break up ..it too was stationary with an incoming nw lp..the next day lunch time we had 3-4 foot of snow and 15-20ft in drifts in the countryside lol because the pl had dumped so much snow on us overnight lolol
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Definitely 1996, that was the last true Polar low, like mentioned in the above post by Ineritus, 2000 had one but it was decaying and we didn't get the full blow.
where was the 06 pl positioned? i l know in 2000 i was in minnesota.
latest precip radar, that small snow is a bit bigger..but i suppose that s it bed time lol
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Technically because Polar lows are convective features (similar to tropical cyclones) then it is in effect, a cluster of potent showers anyway.
I believe March 1996 then last Polar Low was, with thunderstorms and snow, depositing a foot by me anyway, and stuck around for a week afterwards - those were the day, I stayed up all night watch that thunder-snowstorm and I was only 10
People are right to be sceptical about discussing a feature that wont bring anything, but for me I know it wont bring snow here but I think its fascinating to see a Polar Low. One of my favourite synoptic features, due to its energy and similarity to a tropical cyclone
1996 are you sure?? i remember it being longer ago than that unless i was out the country at the time lol
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Yep, we would certainly know about it, if it did make it down here, and maintained it's PL status and didn't fragment into a cluster of potent showers. I can't remember when we were last effected by a Polar Low?
certainly not in the last 20 years as far as i remember infact longer than that lol
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Yeah, but come on, how many good falls of snow does Halton get in March and April? Especially when we reach the equinox and overnight snow is scorched away by lunchtime.
Cold springs are a drag for low ground. Sooner get some real stuff out of the way now and have 10 months of summer.
i agree i am just forcing myself to be optimistic though its a gloomy outlook lol
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It seems that to be an indication of how poor tonight is that we are reduced to discussing another feature that will probably bring no snow too :lol:
am looking forward to this lp moving into nw scotland..might bring nothing but a dusting, but id take that than possible rain anyday
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Well Polar lows are nowcasting features, as said in a previous post but I do think this is too mature. I think it's developed at the wrong time as there is not a significant northerly flow at the moment to drag it down.
That said I think the met-office would need to see:
- Further development in the next few hours (ie size expansion)
- Continued rotation
- Movement southwards.
We have development it would see in terms of size and we do have rotation, but no real movement southwards.
Polar lows can deliver heavy snow, thunderstorms and tornadoes at their best so the northwest would win the snow lottery were we to get one.
Unfortunately I don't think its coming out way. Imagine if it was though it would be interesting to say the least!
We still have a few months for Polar lows to occur I suppose so we can dream away
Reflecting upon forecast for our areas, we are supposed to be getting showers tomorrow evening from a northwesterly so I imagine that may be the remains of this feature?
haha now watch everyone hit the refresh button on that website
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i shouldnt need to point out winter in this country certainly for the last 10 years as not ended until the end of march and into april, since this one has been a much colder winter id expect it to last just as long..yes we have a slack high week coming up..which will allow night temps to really drop off and day time temps to also remain low (ie frosts not going anywhere) allowing for any potential snow to have a chance of snowing and sticking..but anything can happen..including that pl..so dont be too downhearted and gloomy...this is the uk..what shouldnt happen does.
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Like I say, the Met Office predict it will hit western Scotland tomorrow, and they have a warning of snow for a very small area - Strathclyde - which reflects how small the low is.
polar lows do not drop 2-5cm they have the warning for the lp to the nw lol
actually am gonna stop posting them in case the owners go mental..but that is a polar and it is growing very visibly
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If it did come our way it would be like winning the snow lottery. What level of confidence would the beeb need before they said anything though? I mean - there's not much middle ground is there. I'm sure must be being observed.
it will be being watched very close you can bet on it by the meto..since its still building and difficult to forecast in the first place..i think they are holding off to see what happens in the next hour or so
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The Polar low will not reach here on second thought. If it has an eye it already at it's mature stage and hasn't moved for a few hours really so this one will die out before reaching mainland UK but will leave snow showers in its wake.
Still raining here, no snow at the moment but it'll be moving away soon anyway
it developed an eye about 3 hours ago, it only just starting to build..we'll have to see sp, if any movement from lp nw will have any influence on pulling it further south..since its still growing meanwhile. not sure if thats a sign of potential dragging by the lp in nw..its built a bit more
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Still occupying the 'hole of inertia' here - nothing out there, no breeze, not sleet, just 'nothing'
I think all the spicy curries, have attributed to a mini-urban heat island effect.
hahaha there you go that explains it all really
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Definitely a polar low, what a fantastic image, one of the best I've seen in terms textbook.
I cannot tell you how excited I am to see such a well organised polar low.
Unfortunately I'm not sure it will track south over us as I think the Met-office would have picked it up by now.
the only thing to watch out for, is movement in the next couple of hours, and the position of the lp to the nw.
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Ummm, could track down over NI / Irish Sea???
likely not, gonna be a few factors with that pl, for example whether the lp to nw moves in and drags it down..even so id expect it to fall apart quickly under those conditions..either northern scotland or nw scotland...i just cant see it surviving long enough..i am more than disappointed with upper airs temps tonight. -4 for most of the region. dew points have also been disappointing.
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I think its all heading back South East so won't reach here anyway.
Does look like a polar low North West of Scotland, though. Although again I'm not someone who knows anything about them really!
it is a polar low, but looking at it, its still forming, what we want is for that low pressure system to the nw of the uk to feed it, and drag it down to us pronto..they simply dont last long, but they can produce quite a lot of snow.
expect this to grow very quickly good thing is the lp to nw is very close by to it, and to the uk
it has grown again the eye is now more distinctive than last photo
Snow Watch: North West England
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by NorthWest_Snow
temps here are finally dropping off, dew point on marginal -0.7C inc snow and rain showers in ireland moving westwards ahead of a front.
be lovely if it made it to the irish sea...but i think if it makes nw scotland, i think its pretty safe to say its fantasy island until it actually gets within striking distance of the uk, no matter, it will die the moment it touches land so it would only be showers anyways i still think it may well break up, before it reaches here due to the 2 lp to the west of it causing it a loss of convection..well its looking a lot better than it did in previous passes, still moving south and i am concerned about how slow that thing is moving tbh