StretfordEnd1996
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Posts posted by StretfordEnd1996
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While I don't think the GFS is the best when it comes to precipitation the 12z is nonetheless showing a relatively dry Bank Holiday weekend for a large part of the country away from the far North of Scotland. So maybe not the best outlook if you live up there.
But there's still what looks like showery spots for the rest of the country too and it's clear rain isn't overly far away.
At this stage - perhaps we can say - looking dry for most but not with a huge amount of confidence?
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Just now, Frost HoIIow said:
Doesn't look like that will change anytime soon with the Hurricane season being dead so far. I suppose that's not a bad thing for people in the Caribbean, Mexico and the U.S. in terms of no property damage but it won't help stir up the Atlantic for us and ease the hosepipe ban across the south and east.
Yep absolutely - the Atlantic just hasn't been lively at all in recent times has it.
That's nothing too unusual of course we've had plenty of periods like this in the past where this has been the case but.
If it continues into the Autumn and the back end of the year it'd possibly bring some varied results, in terms of temperatures but as for rainfall.. probably dry
Still - straw clutching a bit but it doesn't take much in the Autumn (even largely settled and dry Autumns) for the Atlantic to at least just open its doors a little bit to hopefully bring a huge wash out across the country even if just for a week or two as we badly need it.-
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2 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:
True. September is far more likely to be a boring month rather than one for heat or extremes. Probably the most uninteresting month of the whole year, rarely all that cold or hot the only interesting part is seeing the gradual leaf change starting towards the end of it.
Yeah definitely agree tends to not be much going on.. certainly the month which has the least chance of Autumnal weather which is ironic given how it's the first month of the Autumn
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Just now, Frost HoIIow said:
Last time we had heat past the 3rd week of September was in 2011 though. September heat whilst can happen is pretty rare the further on you go through the month.
Hence why I said we still have 3-4 weeks of potential heat.
I agree with you fully I've had enough of the heat now haha it's time for something else to be thrown into the mix!!
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24 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:
Must have chucked it down in the night here as I had to tip the garden chairs this morning that were full of water. Not been a bad day today. Very useable pleasantly warm in the sun and walked to Park Bridge with the dogs. Thankfully doesn't look like any more heat on the way, squeaky bum time now for heat lovers.
Still a good 3-4 weeks IMO for the chance of some strong heat to arrive to our shores in my opinion.
Once you get past 3rd week or so in September any heat is usually a bit more bearable but not always the case.-
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26 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:
Both the Euro and GFS0z somewhat join GEM of recent days in basically saying that the first ridge attempt will fail.
GFS pulls the Euro Trough over us..
Euro just never really builds it in at all.
Still an FI build of course from the GFS and Mushy has noted the anomolies still on board.
Op is somewhat on the colder side of things as far as the uppers go to compared to the rest of the suit
If anything some very warm members showing up in there -
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I wake up at around 6am but don't really draw open the blinds until 7am.
This morning I woke up early to go to the loo at around 5:40 and it wasn't fully daylight yet.
Losing 4 minutes of daylight a day, I think, at this time of year.
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Wake Me Up When September Ends of course
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On 12/08/2022 at 12:41, HafrenLMP1 said:
Yes, I can remember this. In fact, I've mentioned it before. I had morning paper round and I recall quite a few cool mornings; in fact I even remember frost towards the end of the month, which was a shock, cold hands aren't great when delivering papers. However, later in the afternoon for the evening paper round, the sun was out and it was warm...t-shirt weather.
Oooh my paper round was from around March 2009 to January 2011 - frozen cold hands I know the feeling all too well!
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I'm trying to find some lovely looking early taste of Autumn charts from the GFS or ECM or similar but in all honestly I'm struggling.
Autumn may be 17 days away - I'm extremely unconfident that September 1st will be anything like the way of Autumnal weather!
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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:
17.9C at midnight...Metoffice had us at 20C
It's about 5am it's getting light now. Better than the 3.30am it was 6 weeks back
Give it just a month then it'll be dark when I get up at 6am
Comes round so quick
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10 minutes ago, CreweCold said:
Absolutely and I suspected this would be the case. Clear skies, increased darkness and increased radiation of heat. As you say, 4 weeks back would have been a different story.
And they're only getting shorter - we're losing what 4-5 minutes or so of light at the moment?
Will be waking up in the dark soon (what time does it actually get light at the moment?)
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8 minutes ago, virtualsphere said:
Dug out this analysis I did a couple of years back, La Nina is not necessarily bad if it's a colder winter you're after, its the strong El Nino event that you probably don't want to see. This doesn't take into account the longevity of the Nina though.
@StretfordEnd1996There's some other data sources here https://climatedataguide.ucar.edu/climate-data/nino-sst-indices-nino-12-3-34-4-oni-and-tni and back to 1870 here https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/nino34.long.data
Thanks for this sphere, much appreciated
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1 minute ago, Joe Snow said:
We're just about hanging on aren't we to the lush stuff
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There's been a lot of talk recently in local media about the low reservoirs - while they are definitely very low I've seen them lower.
Dovies (as us locals call it - meaning Dovestones of course)! Does appear to be one of the lowest at the moment for whatever reason but plenty of other ressies around the area are still have a relatively okayish amount of wet in them albeit they are much lower than normal.
As I've said though I'm sure I've seen them all lower in the past.
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3 minutes ago, hillbilly said:
If you were to add November 1985 and Jan 1987 that is 6 respective months [Jan,Feb,April,August,September and November] that are colder than any since and some of these are the coldest in a Century all within 14 months of eachother.
Yes crazy period without question. Had no idea until now this period was like this..
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On 07/08/2022 at 18:55, SqueakheartLW said:
These are based on any 3rd successive year of either La Nina's in a row or a 3rd year of at least ENSO Neutral on the colder side or colder with no break away from this at any stage.
3rd year La Nina's or ENSO Neutral Colder side with CET's and anomalies to average at the time
November December January February March
1871/72 3.40C (-2.29C) 3.60C (-0.13C) 5.00C (+1.48C) 6.90C (+2.43C) 6.80C (+1.69C)
1893/94 5.20C (-1.06C) 4.80C (+0.83C) 3.40C (-0.09C) 5.10C (+1.22C) 6.70C (+1.59C)
1908/09 7.40C (+1.22C) 3.90C (-0.61C) 3.50C (-0.20C) 2.90C (-1.18C) 3.70C (-1.61C)
1922/23 5.90C (-0.31C) 5.80C (+1.04C) 5.60C (+1.39C) 5.60C (+1.26C) 6.50C (+0.80C)
1934/35 6.10C (-0.29C) 8.10C (+3.46C) 4.50C (+0.56C) 5.80C (+1.63C) 6.60C (+0.68C)
1956/57 6.00C (-0.56C) 5.70C (+1.28C) 5.50C (+2.18C) 5.30C (+1.68C) 9.20C (+3.51C)
1975/76 6.30C (-0.25C) 5.30C (+0.65C) 5.90C (+2.09C) 4.50C (+0.74C) 4.80C (-0.88C)
1985/86 4.10C (-2.77C) 6.30C (+1.24C) 3.50C (-0.70C) -1.10C (-5.34C) 4.90C (-1.37C)
2000/01 7.00C (-0.14C) 5.80C (+1.17C) 3.20C (-1.46C) 4.40C (-0.49C) 5.20C (-1.54C)
November December January February March
AVERAGE 5.71C (-0.72C) 5.48C (+0.99C) 4.46C (+0.58C) 4.38C (+0.22C) 6.04C (+0.32C)Looking at the above this isn't a great signal for a colder than average November to March period with the vast majority of months here with above average temperatures. November has the best chance of cold with 3rd year La Nina or at least 3 years in a row of ENSO Neutral Colder side or colder. There are however a few exceptions with some of the months.
Now if I factor in where we are in the solar cycle which is in the ascending phase or approaching maximum we narrow it down to these years
November December January February March
1934/35 6.10C (-0.29C) 8.10C (+3.46C) 4.50C (+0.56C) 5.80C (+1.63C) 6.60C (+0.68C)
1956/57 6.00C (-0.56C) 5.70C (+1.28C) 5.50C (+2.18C) 5.30C (+1.68C) 9.20C (+3.51C)
2000/01 7.00C (-0.14C) 5.80C (+1.17C) 3.20C (-1.46C) 4.40C (-0.49C) 5.20C (-1.54C)
November December January February March
AVERAGE 6.37C (-0.33C) 6.53C (+1.97C) 4.40C (+0.43C) 5.17C (+0.94C) 7.00C (+0.88C)Either way things are not looking good if you are a coldie based on the combination of 3rd year La Nina/ENSO Neutral Colder combined with late ascending solar cycle phase so 2 factors already against us here if you want cold. Maybe not a bad thing if you factor in the energy prices this winter however. With an expected WQBO as well then there's another thing against cold too.
Watch winter 2022/23 now be the coldest winter of the century so far, beating 2009/10, 2010/11 and 2012/13 for cold now I have shown factors against cold here.
Thanks very much for this informative post. I did post something similar a few months back further up the forum but mine was just a bit of an 'unofficial' quick desktop survey. There's an interesting run of consistent Novembers in there..
If you don't mind me asking. Is there anywhere I can get this Nino information from re. Nino episodes prior to 1950 - 1950 and after are easy to find online but I take it you may know somewhere that has this information.
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2 hours ago, Don said:
Interesting, the only notably warmer than average month in 1986 was December.
Suppose there had to be a much warmer than average month at some point otherwise if December were anything like February, April August and September it could well of been one of the coldest years on record..!
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43 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
Think 1986 coldest year overall since????
1986 CET's () = vs 1981-2010
Jan 3.5 (-1.1)
Feb -1.1 (-5.7)
March 4.9 (-1.6)
Apr 5.8 (-2.6)
May 11.1 (-0.3)
Jun 14.8 (+0.7)
Jul 15.9 (-0.5)
Aug 13.7 (-2.5)
Sept 11.3 (-2.7)
Oct 11.0 (+0.4)
Nov 7.8 (+0.5)
Dec 6.2 (+1.5)
Year 8.81 (-1.09)No year since colder than that. 2010 comes close (8.86)
Edit - perhaps appropriately enough in the legacy CET series, 1986 is the 86th coldest year on record.. (as usual out of 364 of course).
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2 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
We all thought a sub freezing month wouldn't happen again after a long period dance Feb 86 without.. and one popped up in Dec 2010! I suspect we may well see odd months and seasons of notable cold still.. against a generally much warmer trend.
Yes fully agree, perhaps I was a bit OTT there
I'd just love an Autumn that has a large degree of changeability and a bit of everything, I feel recent ones have just been a bit monotone. Dull and boring
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3 hours ago, Speedbird said:
Oh good, and we all know what happened in December 2010
Ha yes well -
On deeper thoughts I wouldn't be somewhat surprised if we don't see another sub 10.0'C CET Autumn in my life time but hey who knows.
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7 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
I was 8 but have no memories of it. It came on the back of an unusually cold August I think which probably meant SSST's were much colder than usual and there was little hang over warmth to tap into.
Unusual for high pressure to stay in situ to the NW in September for such a long time.
It came amidst a relatively cold period that commenced Jan 85 and lasted roughly until Autumn 87.. the storm of October 87 marked a change.
Many months were substantially colder than normal.. Jan, Feb, Mar, June, July, Aug, Nov 85! Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, July, Aug, Sept 86! Jan, Feb, Mar, Jun, Jul, Aug 87.. some not as cold as others.. correct of wrong about summer months quoted.
A flip came in Autumn 87, summer 88 was cold and the odd month like Nov 88 but until winter 90-91 it was a much warmer period..
Weather in cycles...
Yes absolutely I forget that this period in general was generally of a cooler one - be interesting to know if any of those other months you mentioned are in the top 15 coldest CET too for their respective months - I know February 1986 is one.
Edit, just checked - Feb 1986 is the 6th coldest Feb on record (-1.1), April is the 20th coldest on record (5.8), August ranked 17th (13.7) and then September as I've mentioned.
Had no idea about this - I just drilled down into September without checking or thinking about the rest of the year!
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1 hour ago, Joe Snow said:
Basically a case of seeing how hot it’ll get from now until Sunday. Longer nights allowing for some cooling but homes will still be uncomfortable after several hot days.
Latest temps for MCR Airport & Lancaster show the heat peaking into the low 30’s for the south of the region for the weekend but v warm - hot across the board
Tues: 26c - MAN / 21c LAN
Wed: 30c - MAN / 25c LAN
Thurs: 31c - MAN / 27c LAN
Fri: 31c - MAN / 28c LAN
Sat: 32c - MAN / 28c LAN
Sun: 33c - MAN / 29c LAN
yes very interesting and it's extremely rare if not unheard of to see somewhere up here such as Manchester Airport to so get consistently +30'C temps for 5 days+ in a row
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So one thing I came across recently is September 1986 with a CET of 11.3'C is the 15th coldest September on record.
Since it's relatively recent and perhaps some members on here may remember it what were your memories. (I'm too young..)
Was it really as chilly as the stats suggest.
These uppers (of below 0'C) were brought in from HP sitting to the W/NW of us and these seem to have persisted from almost the first day of the month almost until the 20th - so almost 2/3rds of the month was under this general flow.
-5'C isotherm flirts with Northern Scotland a few times too.
North West Regional Discussion March 2022 onwards
in Northwest Weather Discussion
Posted
Well I've been awake for about 90 minutes and already seen a bit of a mix so far - woke up to a dull cloudy start but 5 minutes later when I stepped outside to get into my car sunshine was trying to break through.
Rain soon arrived on my journey and now here in Leigh I arrived to mostly blue skies ... yet a peak out the window and it's now dull and cloudy again and looks like it may start to rain..
That said the radar for the majority of the NW is looking clear for now but I expect precipitation for most in the form of showers throughout the day