Blake
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Posts posted by Blake
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Let's just remember that last Sunday, there wasn't much in the way of anything wintry for say, this coming Sunday. Possibly hints that something may have been on the horizon but we ALL know not to take anything beyond about 7 days with too much confidence, especially if only one or two models are showing it.
Last Sunday for this coming Sunday from the GFS. T+336
Yesterday for this coming Sunday from the GFS. T+168
The winds have swung 180 degrees, 544-560dam replaced by 508-520dam, blocking in the Atlantic, LP coming up against blocking over Russia...need I go on?
Some of us are already looking 10-14 days ahead to find the end of this upcoming cold spell before it's begun. It seems whenever it is showing something disappointing for snow and cold, many of you are writing winter off, "if it doesn't show anything in the next 10 days, that's it for this year"... I lived in Dorset for many a year (2.5 miles inland) and it was 15th April (sister's birthday) we had laying snow, only a couple of cm's however, but enough to go sledging for a short while, I think in 1996 (give or take a year), 40m ASL. Recently in March 2013, (21st?), snow fell in areas just north of the M4 right up to central Scotland where a couple of inches down in parts of South Wales to Oxfordshire to Suffolk fell with over a foot, several feet in drifts, in northern areas. I recall towns in Northern Ireland blacking out from this storm. I for one won't give up on the prospects of snow until the middle of April, the latest in the year I've seen snow fall, that's another 12 weeks.
It may be that what we see now in 10-14 days could end up being 2 feet of snow, or 12 degrees with high pressure dominating the UK. If the computers can't get beyond 5 days with any accuracy, I'm not sure why anyone is looking for when it may end in 10+ days. We've got the potential this week for some areas to get a good dumping of snow, especially those in the firing line where streamers often occur, and looking ahead to just after the weekend something perhaps more widespread... PERHAPS.
Most of us have been starved by lack of cold and/or snow for two years now, I think it was 2 years ago today the last of the snow that began to fall on the 18th January 2013 thawed here in Guildford. Let's just enjoy what happens over the next few days, eh?
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Hope you don't mind, just going to pop in charts from this time last week for today, today, and for next Monday based on today's outputs. UKMO doesn't go to 168 so emitted from this. Plus on Meteociel the charts are all over the place still! So just the GFS, ECM & GEM for now. So let's see which of these has been most accurate, bearing in mind these charts were issued prior to the stormy period we had on Weds/Thurs.
T-168(ish), T0 and T+168(ish).
GFS
ECM
GEM
Anyone want to analyse these for me? I've got to dash out for a few hours in 1 minute, cutting it fine!
I'll try to do this again next Monday to see how well the models have done again.
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Azores high trying to make inroads again? Good run in the short term, maybe not so beyond t144...
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GFS 6h and 12h for Thurs 7am
Slightly strong heights over Greenland with westward correction of low to the south.
Scandi heights marginally stronger and slightly further NW. Low over southern UK slightly further north...
Wonder if the Scandi heights can find a way to link up with Greenland heights down the line with weaker LP putting up less of a fight against the heights to our N/E? If so we could end up with a slider?
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GFS seems to have downgraded on the 0h the last couple of days then upgrades on the 6h?
W/SW air flow...
S/SE airflow....for England at least.
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Just to highlight the differences on the same model from one run to another for the same time. NAVGEM 0z and 6z for Monday morning. LP system off the north has disappeared and heights have begun to build over Greenland.
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Looks like 4c-10c nationwide with a band of rain stretching N-S to me? That rather small LP over northern parts is a pretty redundant feature and will have no effect in my opinion. Just variable winds off the north west as opposed to a generally W/NW windflow. Of course the mountains will benefit, that's about it I think.
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Incredible... 10c change in the South/South East.
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No mention of the GEM?
T-240 but pretty strong Greenie high, heights building across nothern Europe an cold heading our way from the NE from around next Tues/Weds.
High pressure heading out of Canada, could link up with Greenland high in time, pretty weak PV I'd say?
Of course, in FI but something to keep an eye on.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=1&mode=1&archive=0
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GFS 12z coming out now, seems that slightly better heights are building over the pole/to the north heading towards Svalbard. Looking a little better to the NE/E too. 10-15mb rise in high pressure north of Scandi. Low out west flattens a bit too which to me would allow blocking to the NE to become stronger as the low weakens.
6z
12z
And then a bit later, Azores sinks, heights to north head south. HP across the north. LP over northern tip of Scotland now 200 miles further south?
I'd say these are quite big changes here.
6z
12z
8c to 10c changes over northern Scandinavia, on the colder side.
6z
12z
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Tomorrow should show this breaking off on the GFS 0z, 6z and 12z. Would bring a short-lived easterly for next Friday. Need heights to become stronger to the NE to send the main area of LP to the NW/W to the SE. Colder air should then find its way to the UK but at the moment, nothing cold enough showing to bring snowfall.
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Sorry but what Scandinavia block? Can't see one on those charts?
If you read it carefully it says heights are slightly better over Scandi. The block isn't currently there but could rebuild as the low heading NE flattens. You can see the lines becoming more vertical on the 18z over Scandia whereas SW/NE on the 12z and marginally further west compared to the 12z.
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The split in the low heading NE flattens allowing heights to build again over the top, and the low coming for us could stall but hopefully the NW/SE tilt can rebuild sending it SE.
12z
18z
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Latest GFS showing heights strong over Greenland and slightly better over Scandi. Block coming back? Could be on to something here...?
If heights over Greenland build, pushing lows further south before heading across the Atlantic, would be in a better position to slide SE when it hits the Scandi high?
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18z
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Little snowman to our west in that low
it's trying to tell us something....-
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GFS 12z for Monday morning bringing heights across north slightly further south and slightly stronger over Greenland, Scandi high MARGINALLY further west (1015, 1020 and 1025mb kinks over Norway and Sweden) and the centre of the low to our NW 30 miles or so further south.
6z
12z
Positive steps I'd say?
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Incoming .........
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=384&code=19&mode=0&carte=0
850s
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=384&code=19&mode=1&carte=0
From the GEFS. It would probably end up with a uk high on the next frame, but we can dream.....
Those low 850's partly down to the small easterly jet over Scandi! The Jet to our west decreasing in strength and the Jet to the west looks to end up south of the UK a few days later. Of course, FI, not worth taking about but still, worth talking about
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A few still stating "only x days until end of winter..." blah blah.
March 7th 1976 - Scandi high - low to SE with -4 to -12 uppers
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=7&month=3&year=1976&hour=12&map=0&mode=0
March 19th 1987 - Greenland high - low to NE - -6 uppers covering all of the UK
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php?day=19&month=3&year=1987&hour=0&map=0&mode=0
In my eyes, having seen snow in April in 1998 and 1999, winter has good 11 weeks remaining at least. Use the archive in the links above.
GFS updating currently, subtle changes. Bringing the low across slightly faster than the previous run and slightly more to the north for the more NW part of the main low? Seems the scandi high is pushed slightly SE with everything marginally further east?
GFS 18z - the southern most part of the low out west is 100 miles or so lower. Anything of concern or for discussion?
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18z
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I think we have seen enough vortex disruption in the last couple of days modeling to show Atlantic dominance is now under threat.
Just taking the UK model as an example t144hrs
http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2014012012/UN144-21.GIF?20-18
and this is repeated on all the major runs.
So the real change to a more-AO pattern looks likely next week-we just need those heights in the right area to get the cold here.
The trend for a cut off low heading into Europe in the medium term as heights increase in the Arctic is clear to see.
This week the high to our east is clearly having an effect and is forcing the jet further se and stalling the fronts approaching from the Atlantic.-and we thought sometime ago it was going to sink by now.
Shows how things are changing.
The GEM supporting this too?
Through the whole run out to 240, at least 5 lows cross the Atlantic, hit the Scandi high and flatten. Need more of a NW/SE tilt for these to sink and give us more of the Easterlies we need.
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php
I am interested in seeing whether or not the small low off Newfoundland in 240 will cross into Southern Europe by following the jet?
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Loving this! Will miss a couple of frames out but....
Westerly theme Saturday morning.
Secondary low forms about 400 miles west of Ireland...
Heads for the NW bringing W/SWerlies....
Slap bang over Scotland bringing NWerlies....
Slides SE bringing easterlies to northern areas and N/NWerlies to most of the rest of the UK with heights building again over all of the north and the original low flattening out....
Sinks further SE inviting colder air from the NE and hopefully more E on the next run as the low sinks south...
Also, Atlantic high extending further north meeting the Greenie high creating a block for anything heading out of Canada?
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Perhaps we could be looking at an Arctic blast? This could be wishful thinking but...
Scandi low to sink south inviting Arctic airflow (northerly) to follow in behind? Greenland heights extend further south too with colder 850's extending down from the north and over Scandinavia.
For my interpretation of what may happen... or what I (we - most of us) would like to happen.
The low comes up against the HP now in Russia, with the tail of the low concertinaing in behind (straight red lines and arrows). LP has nowhere to go, extends vertically (red rings) with a northerly flow (blue/white arrow) introduced.
Azores buggers off back south with the Jet either weakening or pushing south also.
You can see in the two frames from the 850's that colder air is building from NW, N, NE and E.
Perhaps it's just a delirious state I am in.
A possibility though?
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Heights building over Greenland possibly merging with HP rising up in the Atlantic, could it be enough to force the LP heading out of Canada elsewhere other than the path most the recent lows have headed?
Meanwhile the low to our west comes up against the block to the NE/E, goes under the HP introducing at first a cold blast from the North (see the colder Arctic air pushing down from the north in the two frames above) as the centre of the low sits over Germany before sinking south giving us an Easterly with colder air also heading in from the NE/E with heights extending back across the north.
In theory anyway... is this possible from the charts I have added?
Also, if I am not mistaken (probably am), look to Greenland here, first signs of an SSW reversing the jet? Would support the colder air coming into the other frames I have posted.
Thoughts please? Am I on the wrong tracks completely?
Still learning, go easy
Goodnight
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This is how I see things potentially developing... any thoughts?
HP black, LP red and I suppose Purple would be the Jet? Jet would either sink south or become less intense.
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it's trying to tell us something....
Model Output Discussion - 1st February Onwards 12z--->
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted · Edited by GUWeather
Potential for a Thames streamer tonight anyone? -6/-8 uppers, Easterly... as it would be more convective, should we be concerned that the thickness isn't great? We could still get snowfall I'm sure.
We've seen snow across Kent due to the more NErly airflow, with showers also forming through the channel falling over northern France, so I was wondering if tonight with marginally stronger and colder airflow from the East, might we get a little surprise south of the Thames/M4? Probably not quite a Feb 2009, though.
Edit: Just to add, precipitation has edged further west this afternoon and showers starting to pop up across coastal fringes of Suffolk and Essex.. airflow has started to veer from NE towards the E...