Purga

At least the 06z Control run is keeping he faith for New Year's Day

A solid and well supported shift to cold right up to the start of the New Year.

Notice the upper heights building between Greenland and Iceland (Yellow area) courtesy of the WAA driven by the exiting Newfoundland LP system. This will strengthen the northern blocking going foreward and prolong the cold pattern into the New Tear

GFS 18z correcting south and bringing snow to many areas central and southern especially by 27th Dec.

The current uncertainty is exemplified by GEM this afternoon 00z 12z Is 300-500 miles either way relevant 180 hours out? Overthe last week we’ve had all manner of options which have come and gone. The one consistent theme has been the models struggling hugely with the jet stream profile through next week. We’ve seen changes feeding through in the amount of energy in the jet and how much goes into the northern and southern arms. That’s moved on to pushing energy right through the prime meridian. This will continue to evolve as new and better signals emerge about how the atmosphere is behaving; the recent trends could continue or change again. It'll not take much to shift the mood from despair to euphoria! PS: Also. bear in mind the shift to a colder nuanced extended forecast update from UKMET (check the appropriate thread). A snippet being 'Through January, cold air is signalled to develop and remain in place across parts of Europe. From here, there is a chance that an easterly wind could bring periods of cold weather, and associated wintry hazards, to the UK.'

If GFS 06z Op is to believed - an awful start to the New Year in prospect

Pretty decent 18z mean chart for Xmas day Short ENS showing strong support (majority) for the cold Operational solution.

Could be better but the broad pattern is maintained & it will be different on the day ! It's not a downgrade at all

Not the right thread for this but as he's being refered to - Marc P is now saying an 'interesting' Christmas coming up as LP's from the SW try and budge the cold air.

Just got home and thought I'd have a quick update - guess the GFS 12z has cheered the troops a tad? Go - Compare 00z ECM Boxing Day Chart 12z GFS Boxing Day Chart Consistent or what? PS: Let's hope now that ECM doesn't throw us a googly this evening !

Big improvement from ECM 12z over 0z. The NH view gives a better perspective. 0z 12z

A nice frosty start to Xmas day from GEM

UKM starting to mention snow in their updated extended text forecast. Muted but a hint.

Some very cold MOGREPS runs: Courtesy of TWO.

All is not lost

Good chart at T+330h. UK high linking with Arctic ridge which slowly advects the Arctic air westwards, whilst GFS winds up an intense LP which stalls in mid-Atlantic and promotes more WAA, NW towards Iceland, with the block holding and strengthening. Longevity of this p[attern will allow for more chances of eventually hitting the jackpot.

We don't want to end up with the dreaded 'West based -ve NAO' pattern

Despite the grinchy look of the 06z GFS run, the ENS continue to trend down from the 00z BTW - there's an interesting snow risk for Christmas day

Time to keep the ENS in sight & not get too buffeted about by the vagaries of individual operationals. An improving picture for coldies. Let's see how the ECM 'downgrade' sits in the ENS suite eh?

GEFS trending ever colder this morning with only a few members above normal - most below and some very cold runs. GEM throws up a dream scenario for the run up to Christmas ! PS: The wonderful CFS isn't too shabby either

ENS showing a definite trend downwards. Some real beauts amongst them. ECM nearly ready to join the party at t+192

At least it will be mild

Jingle Bells Snow in Sussex at Christmas? - Surely not ! That aside MOGREPS is showing a cold evolution out at d9 already. Small steps within a very unusual & intriguing hemispheric pattern. Will be fascinating to see how this plays out,

Output still up for grabs. Including the Mother of All Christmas Pressies! GEFS still showing a good number of cold / very cold solutions. Even the extended ENS are showing a good number of cold options right into the New Year bringing the mean down below average - although naturally there is a lot of spread. In the more reliable timeframe the low sigma on the spreads for the UK area around 228hrs signalling that a UK high is very probable next weekend. As I started out saying the rest is up for grabs and remains very interesting.