Purga

I think most of us would take this FI rendition... Likely to evolve into an easterly thereafter.

Nice 12z GFS / GEM convergence

Very nice so far

The ECM D10 Op v PARA is not without interest...

GFS 18z is consistent with its northerly if nothing else! IF,,, it were to verify there would be good snow cover over Europe & low temps - just right for the easterly to follow...

FI teasing again

An interesting cold LP skirting the south end of next week per GFS 06z running from East to West on an Easterly, Would give some snow / wintry preciptation for the South Coast and especially the Moors of the SW. That's not to mention FI of course

Well - trending down after mid month with hints of retrogression of the HP in the models. One to watch & at least there are some straws appearing for us to clutch!

A nice blizzard for Central parts on Tuesday? A small shift of that system could make a world of difference to the conditions on the ground anywhere in the country. Anything from raging blizzard to cold rain to 'what was all the fuss about' ! Exciting though and just goes to show how the weather can really throw up some surprises even in the most 'boring' zonal type set-ups. PS: Could also be a tad wet ! PPS: Oh - and most importantly - Happy New Year to all you great people on NW ! Here's to a nice snowy one...

Would be fun on the N Yorks Moors if this came off!

The short 06z ENS are at least showing a colder trend early next week once we get this week's garbage out of the way !

Is this going to be the next wild goose chase or is it the colder than average early January UKMET are forecasting?

Pretty convincing shift to mild or very mild unfortunately this morning

Just the Op or the ENS......

Could ECM be the pre-cursor to the 'cold south easterly winds' UKMET are seeing? That is a gorgeous cold pool to the NE over Russia - can we tap into it??? The question is who will win Siberia or Iberia? !

GEM ENS - a 'glimmer' ?

You need some of this

ICON 06z at least shows a somewhat more promising move in the latter stages. Crumbs...

Oh dear - looks like the models have done a Darren Bett on us this morning as well as the GEFS .

OK !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Easterly incoming @ +282hrs

Well UKMET updated text forecast for Xmas day to the early New Year has nudged further towards 'a colder than average' scenario. Will therefore be very intersting to see where the 12zs are pointing. The mild dominance after the big day looks questionable.

18z ENS shiftimg to colder compared to 12z & the Op was very much at the top of the mild pack in FI 12z 18z

Another stand-off

Another 'twist' from ECM NH perspective shows important differences and underlines the uncertainty with current outputs! 00z - 216hrs 12z - 216hrs