Purga

Yes, it's very touch and go and the HP to the NW could easily slip a bit too much more NW and we could end up with a west based -ve NAO! As always it's very tricky getting cold to the UK and of course the above chart is a long way off.

So near and yet so far away!

Thanks Ian, sounds promising, ler's hope the snow potential continues to improve.

Not really

Hi Ian, I'm right on the south coast between Worthing & Littlehampton which is normally one of the worst places for snow (LOL) but from what i can see from the latest NWP outputs we may be in with a shout to suck in a few decent snow showers off the channel at the weekend. We do often get some surprise and unforecasted showers (usualy sleet or rain) here and it would be nice if we could have a bit of fun this time - I usually resort to getting up to the highest points on the south downs to get a very rare fix of something wintry.

Thank you Brian Gaze for that.I'm hoping for some snow activity along the south coast at the end of the week, hopefully pushing in from the Channel a bit more. Fingers crossed, any snow however light welcomed down here.

ECM 240 looks a bit 'dodgy' for longevity and could easily go down the tube to me Steve but I bow to your greater knowledge on this one.

Mmm.. what's going to happen with that feisty little Azores LP?? Could the energy go under our HP and help form an omega block? He says hopefully but not very confidently!

Cold pool is rapidly dwindling Nick A reload from the N is needed but sadly looks like a no no.

You never welcomed me RP ... only joking !

Looks like the pattern is shifting gradually south as time ticks by which is OK-ish for us down on the south coast but not such fun for folks further north who want cold and snow. Still we are normally the one's to suffer cold rain or sleet when most other places are enjoying the snow i.e. in January just gone! Not much snow looking likely here, however, more like a keen cold easterly especially right on the coast / beach or up on the South Downs - hoping for a bit of a surprise dusting maybe? The ENS both GFS & ECM look pretty soild on a warm up after next weekend as many have commented on Looks like the last of the winter cold (as opposed to the summer wine ) and a great pity there has been no GH otherwise it could have been so much better. Guess it will come out of hibernation in May thru' to about October

Indeed, so a fairly'tame' affair in prospect as seemed likey over the past few days. Me being on the south coast, the synoptics could easily give us a reasonable chance of some cold weather and some snow & more so than some locations further north - for a change! From the expert opinions I have been reading, I'm not expecting anything very exciting but it is a long way off in weather timescales and what is in the offing sure beats mild tedious gloom.

ECM 240 - Just like 'A question of sport' - what happens next?? Edit: with nothing in the Med (LP) to support the HP it would sink and then finito cold spell.

So we could end up with another relatively tame affair?

Looks like another slip towards downgrade from ECM this morning. More of a cold dry picture and with the loss of retrogression towards GH shown a couple of runs back but hopefully we can get some frosty nights and sunshine by day and maybe a few flurries in the East / SE. A change from endless grey skies and marginal sleety stuff!

Is the 12z ECM a downgrade from the 0z? Seems like the really cold air just gets shut out again and so any easterly won't be particularly potent.

My first post on NW after a lengthy period 'lurking' - very impressed by the wealth of knowledge available and especially like the 'sage-like' musings of John Holmes!Regarding the above post, I believe Ian F was referring to an earlier stance this morning by UKMO regarding the possible 'return of W / Sw regime and was awaiting the latest which he has now recently advised. It reads to me as though the latest MGREPS output now supports the EC N blocking / cold scenario an so supercedes the earlier position. I stand to be corrected of course.